Donald Trump has proposed a $5,000 “ #TRUMP Dividend” for every adult US citizen if Republicans retain control of Congress. With roughly 245 million adults, the program could exceed $1 trillion. For crypto, the comparison with 2020 is tempting. Direct payments increased household liquidity while near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing and a weaker dollar pushed investors toward scarce assets. From its March 2020 low, $BTC entered one of the strongest bull cycles in its history. But stimulus checks alone did not create that rally. Bitcoin’s halving, institutional adoption and massive Federal Reserve liquidity were equally important. This time, the effect could be more complicated: 🟢 More household liquidity and stronger risk appetite 🟢 Renewed demand for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge 🔴 Higher inflation expectations and Treasury yields 🔴 Possible delay in Fed rate cuts 🔴 The proposal still requires congressional approval My view: approval would initially be bullish for $BTC and crypto, but a full repeat of 2020 would require monetary liquidity as well as fiscal stimulus. Without lower rates, part of the positive effect could be absorbed by inflation and rising bond yields. The key signal is not the headline it is whether the proposal becomes law and how the Federal Reserve responds. #Macro Insights#