🇺🇸 WALL STREET SPEAKS 🇺🇸
Bank of America | Morgan Stanley | JPMorgan | Federal Reserve | Blue Chip Consensus
🌎 Inflation’s Long Descent… but the fight isn’t over
As January 2026 unfolds, America’s inflation story is shifting gears—not collapsing, not exploding—cooling, slowly ❄️📉. Top economists and the biggest names on Wall Street agree: inflation is moderating, but stubborn forces are keeping it above the Fed’s comfort zone.
💡 The Big Picture:
Across forecasts, U.S. CPI inflation is expected to hover between 2.4% and 3.0% for most of 2026—a glide path toward stability, not a victory lap.
🏦 WHAT THE GIANTS ARE SAYING
🔵 Federal Reserve
📊 Projects inflation easing to ~2.4% in 2026
⚠️ Still above the 2% long-term target → policy remains cautious
🔷 Blue Chip Consensus
🧠 Survey of 50 elite forecasters
📈 2.9% CPI expected for 2026
Sticky, but manageable
🔴 J.P. Morgan
📉 Sees CPI drifting down to 2.8% YoY by Q4 2026
Slow grind, no sudden crash
🟠 Bank of America
🎯 Focus on Core PCE (the Fed’s favorite gauge)
📌 Around 3.1% for most of the year, easing to 2.8% in Q4
🟣 Morgan Stanley
📘 Slightly more optimistic
📉 Core PCE ending 2026 near 2.6%
⚠️ THE WILD CARDS: WHAT COULD REIGNITE INFLATION?
🔥 Tariffs & Fiscal Policy
Economists warn:
• Higher tariff pass-through 📦💸
• Potential stimulus & tax refunds 🧾💰
• Provisions tied to large fiscal bills
👉 Inflation could “roar back” or stay sticky above 3%
🏠 Shelter Inflation
A heavyweight in CPI ⚖️
📉 Expected to cool to ~3.0% by December 2026
⚡ Energy Prices
🛢️ Oil may slide toward $61.50/barrel by year-end
➡️ A disinflationary tailwind for CPI
👷 Labor Market
• Softer hiring
• Slower wage growth
➡️ Gradual pressure relief on prices as 2026 progresses
🧭 BOTTOM LINE
📉 Inflation is cooling, not conquered
🧠 Policy stays tight, markets stay alert
🔥 Any shock—tariffs, stimulus, energy—can change the game fast
2026 isn’t about victory over inflation…
It’s about control, patience, and precision 🎯💥
👀 Stay sharp. Data moves markets.
📊 CPI isn’t just a number—it’s the narrative.
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