Looking at the current geopolitical landscape, many investors are asking where they should position themselves for the next cycle. Some argue that the global balance of power is increasingly centered around energy particularly oil.
One hypothesis suggests that if a major oil rich country were to fall under U.S. influence or control, the global energy balance would shift significantly. In that context, Iran becomes a critical piece of the puzzle. Iran holds substantial oil and gas reserves and occupies a highly sensitive geopolitical position.
Iran maintains strategic ties with China and Russia. Russia remains entangled in the conflict with Ukraine, while China faces economic pressure and internal structural challenges. If both allies are distracted or constrained, Iran could find itself relatively isolated.
From this perspective, if the United States were to expand its influence over Iran, it would gain significant leverage in the global oil supply chain. When energy supply becomes concentrated under a dominant power axis, oil prices can experience sharp volatility before eventually stabilizing.
From an investment standpoint:
Oil stocks:
Typically benefit during periods of escalating geopolitical tension and rising oil prices. However, if supply later becomes stabilized under stronger control, profit margins may gradually compress.
Gold:
Historically acts as a safe haven asset during political instability. If war risks intensify or confidence in the financial system weakens, gold often reacts early.
Crypto:
More sensitive to global liquidity conditions than to direct military conflict. If tensions push the Federal Reserve toward monetary easing, crypto could benefit. But if energy driven inflation remains high and tight policy persists, the crypto market may face pressure.
The key point is not about choosing the “right” asset in isolation, but about understanding where we stand within both the geopolitical cycle and the monetary cycle. Energy drives inflation. Inflation shapes monetary policy. And monetary policy ultimately directs capital flows into equities, gold, or crypto.
In 2026, the real story may not simply be oil it may be about control over liquidity and global confidence. Those who identify the cycle early will hold the advantage.
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