A federal judge last month severely undermined the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to reject converting the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a more alluring exchange-traded fund. The decision has many analysts now pricing in approval of a spot bitcoin ETF sooner rather than later. Analysts at Bloomberg put the odds of approval this year at 75%.

Market prices show this optimism, too, and not just for Grayscale’s bitcoin product. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) had traded at massive discounts to NAV – industry jargon for the value of all the bitcoin and ether, respectively, that they hold. But they’ve narrowed significantly. GBTC went from trading at a 46% discount to only 21%, while ETHE went from 59% to 29%.