Sowad Hossain

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$TNSR
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Is the end of the year a crash or a melt-up? HSBC's top strategist Max Kettner's contrarian prediction suggests that $BTC may have a linked opportunity.

First, let me clarify: this is not a mindless bullish stance! It's just sharing the core views of HSBC's Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Max Kettner.

The core conclusion is straightforward: the biggest risk is not a crash, but a "melt-up"!

There’s no need to explain a crash in detail, but let’s focus on melt-up — a rapid rise in asset prices in the short term, driven not by improvements in fundamentals, but by FOMO (fear of missing out), short covering, and an influx of off-market funds, resulting in a swift and aggressive upward trend.

Underlying logic: too much cash + excessive panic, is there nowhere for the market to fall?

Max's core narrative is quite clear: the current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, but most of it is driven by emotions rather than actual negative news, which instead hides the potential for a surge. The key logic has 3 points:

1. The economic fundamentals are not that bad: corporate investment sentiment is moderate (no excessive investment bubble), discussions of layoffs in earnings reports are decreasing, AI has not triggered mass unemployment, and the U.S. economy remains in a safe zone; the sell-off is merely panic-driven.

2. Huge amounts of cash are "on standby" off-market: the scale of U.S. money market funds is at a historical high (around $6-7 trillion). Investors are rushing to pull out stocks to hold cash and buy money market funds for risk aversion, which is precisely a contrarian buying signal — once the market rebounds, this cash will rush in to chase prices due to fear of missing out, becoming fuel for a surge.

3. The market has not reached a state of frenzy: current positions are not fully loaded, whether for retail or institutional investors, there is room to increase positions, which is also the core reason for institutions to continue building positions recently.

Key catalysts: 3 variables that could ignite the market

Given the current market dynamics, these points may become the trigger for a melt-up:

- The Federal Reserve's December meeting: although interest rate cut expectations have dropped from 90% to 33%, internal disagreements among officials are intensifying, and the possibility of unexpected rate cuts cannot be ruled out;

- Changes in tariff policy: if the court rules that certain tariffs are illegal and cancels them, it will directly benefit the risk market;

- Liquidity recovery: the liquidity lost due to the previous federal government shutdown has not fully recovered; once liquidity returns, market vitality will quickly rebound.

Max focuses on the stock market, but BTC is related to tech stocks. Currently, the U.S. stock market is dominated by tech stocks, and if tech stocks begin a melt-up driven by funds, BTC is likely to be present. $TNSR

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🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧The cryptocurrency market has plummeted across the board, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $89,000 and Ethereum dropping below $3,000. Panic has spread, with over $500 million in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, mostly from long positions. The core reasons are weakening expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and continuous outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, leading to extreme fear in market sentiment. Despite the bleak market conditions, institutions like Fidelity have started trading the Solana spot ETF. BNB ETH #美股2026预测 #特朗普取消农产品关税 #加密市场回调

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$TNSR so much? Empty one hand

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$TNSR
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Meeting summary at 9 PM. Although sometimes sharing the meeting summary might feel a bit outdated, it is still a commemoration I leave in this world.

1. Core Points​​

Tonight is the release of the non-farm payroll data. The meeting aims to conduct macro analysis through trading examples, rather than merely providing buy and sell points.
Old Wan's core point emphasizes that judging the trend direction and position of the market is crucial for decision-making. The principle of 'direction and position' should be followed, with market indicators serving as supporting evidence.
In the face of market uncertainty, an independent trading system should be established to avoid relying on others' advice; only then can long-term profits be achieved.
​​2. Key Market Concepts Analysis​​

​​Interpretation of Non-Farm Employment Data​​: Old Wan emphasized the need to understand the principles behind macroeconomic indicators. Data shows that U.S. non-farm employment is strong, indicating economic recovery and a stronger dollar; therefore, the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market are generally expected to rise.
​​K-Line Patterns and Singular Characteristics​​: Discussed the 'red bean' and 'green bean' in K-line charts, pointing out that traders can utilize the previous high/low positions of parabolas for trading.
It was noted that the current market exhibits typical 'false ladder' characteristics, where the price quickly recovers after hitting a new low. Caution should be exercised regarding long opportunities before a pullback, and support levels should be prioritized for searching.
Mentioned that news related to Trump is considered a strong signal for sharp price fluctuations.

​​3. Trading Strategies and Risk Control​​
​​Importance of Direction and Position​​: Shared practical cases from 'Children of Destiny' and Li (10.18Senate), demonstrating the trading advantages when the direction is correct and positioned well.
​​Dealing with Volatile Markets​​: Clearly pointed out that in a 'short' trend, if a significant rise is followed by 'short volatility', one should avoid chasing longs and may choose to short at previous highs.
In a strong trend, if the price briefly fails to retest upward, it is often a good time to increase short positions.

​​Position Management​​: Pointed out that in a semi-profit stage, when funds are tight, if an extremely attractive trading opportunity arises, one should not hesitate and dare to place an order. $BTC
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$ETH
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