九条命

#FOMCWatch Future Analysis - Oct 27, 2026 Next decision: *Oct 28, 2pm ET*, current rate 3.75-4.00% after Sep hike. Market pricing: 88-90% HOLD, 10-12% 25bp hike. No dot plot this meeting, only statement + Chair Warsh press at 2:30pm. *Future path:* CME/ OIS pricing 76% chance hike in *Dec 9* meeting to 4.00-4.25% (median 4.1%). Markets price cumulative +67bp hikes over 12 months, peaking Q1 2027 near 4.25%, then cuts back to 4.0% by June. *Drivers:* Inflation sticky (Core PCE 3.0%, CPI elevated), jobs soft (29k Sep, unemp 4.2%), 10Y yield 5.29%. *Market impact:* Hold = relief rally for risk (BTC, gold). Hawkish surprise = stronger USD, pressure on XAU/crypto. Focus on Warsh language for Dec guidance. Not financial advice.