益达Yida
2k Posts
益达Yida
美股大宗主理人｜手续费八折：YIDA666｜合约实盘在跟单🔽｜进入聊天室交流学习🔽
91 Following
2.1K+ Followers
2.9K+ Liked
Posts
All
Videos
PINNED
The probability of the “big crash” of $BTC this year has already approached 50%. With the current BTC price down to $59,417, the market has priced in the probability of a crash using real money.
Choose options expiring on December 25: construct a bear put spread with strike prices of 50,000 and 54,000. Buy the 54,000 put option (premium 4,705) and sell the 50,000 put option (premium 3,040). The net cost is $1,665. The spread width is $4,000, so the market-implied probability that BTC ends the year within the range of 50,000 to 54,000 is 41.6%.
Assuming “crash = falls to 51,520,” the market believes there is a 41.6% chance of a crash occurring this year. The reason is: the higher the spread cost, the deeper the market’s concern about further downside. Rising from 15.2% at 73,600 to the current 41.6%, the underlying move is that BTC$MSTR itself has already fallen by nearly 20%; the options market is repricing tail risk. This is the probability curve drawn by the market with real money—not a guess made by anyone’s hunch.
Choose options expiring on December 25: construct a bear put spread with strike prices of 50,000 and 54,000. Buy the 54,000 put option (premium 4,705) and sell the 50,000 put option (premium 3,040). The net cost is $1,665. The spread width is $4,000, so the market-implied probability that BTC ends the year within the range of 50,000 to 54,000 is 41.6%.
Assuming “crash = falls to 51,520,” the market believes there is a 41.6% chance of a crash occurring this year. The reason is: the higher the spread cost, the deeper the market’s concern about further downside. Rising from 15.2% at 73,600 to the current 41.6%, the underlying move is that BTC$MSTR itself has already fallen by nearly 20%; the options market is repricing tail risk. This is the probability curve drawn by the market with real money—not a guess made by anyone’s hunch.
BTC-1.89%
MSTRUS+6.62%
Lao Chuan, keep going—I hope we can get back to the days when it was $80 to get me out.
Sourced by user sharing on Binance
$TUT The previous order was liquidated, then another order was added. After multiplying by ten times more, it would be a hundredfold coin—seems not too far off. The market has been quiet for too long and also needs a breakout to attract capital inflows. TUT, $TST , and $龙虾 , as BSC early alpha tokens, are still representative.
$TUT Woke up early and it automatically liquidated me—this needle is too ridiculous. In fifteen minutes, it’s up 44%. My 10x coin target has already been reached; another 10x would be a 100x coin.
$TUT times the coin was pre-ordered. Lately everything on BSC has been pretty strong. $龙虾 has also been up for a couple months, and $TST has also been lifted into the air along with it.
$BSP Italian tech giant Bending Spons announced its official listing on the market recently, and its unique corporate operating model along with an extremely stringent talent selection mechanism has drawn high attention from the global tech community and capital markets.
$TUT Pulling the rope is incredibly intense—can it become the next hundredfold within two weeks?
$VIC delisted coins, let's see how much longer you can fly. Sit down for me
Sourced by user sharing on Binance
$CYS fifteen minutes rose by 50%, worthy of the number one demon coin—give it to me, go for it
Sourced by user sharing on Binance
I think this event is a typical “join the crowd” type. Most people are just stepping stones for others—running along the whole way as support. The figure “1,195,000枚$BABY ” looks like a lot. But at the current price of 0.0125, the entire prize pool is only around $16,000. With 60,000 people competing for the top 300 spots, the cutoff score would need to reach at least 550 points. Even if you squeeze in, the per-person reward is only dozens of dollars. The return on investment just isn’t worth it—there’s really no need to stay up late and grind content for these rewards. It’s fine to participate casually, but going all in isn’t worth it. If you have this kind of time and energy, you’d be better off studying candlestick chart (K-line) techniques and learning the real skill of long-term compounding—doesn’t that beat “talking” for pennies?
#baby @BabylonLabs_io
#baby @BabylonLabs_io
$STRC Delinking and still rarely discussed actually shows that this systemic risk has not been priced by the market. $MSTR The most core funding channel is failing: forced to shift from "issuing bonds to buy coins" to "selling coins to service interest". The sale of 3,588 units ($BTC ) has already broken the narrative of "never selling coins." When mNAV falls below 1, additional issuance only dilutes the amount of coins per share, creating a negative feedback loop. If STRC continues trading at a discount and financing capacity deteriorates, the holdings of 840,000 BTC will change from being the market’s biggest buyer to a potential seller. Once this "final sharp bottom" is triggered, the cascading effects could be far more severe than expected.
Sourced by user sharing on Binance
Called it for a long time: $HIMS , the leading stock for erectile-strengthening medicine. In the pharma sector, $NVO and $LLY are not as strong as it is. Actually, making money isn’t hard; the hard part is how to stay firmly holding it and maintain your belief.
Sourced by user sharing on Binance
This wave of $HMSTR ’s short-term breakout is more of a signal at the level of trading chip (capital) games rather than a fundamental reversal.
But this is a trading signal, not an investing signal. HMSTR has fallen 98%+ from its high; the fundamentals have not shown any fundamental improvement. The project is still in the process of repairing user losses and the collapse of trust. This market move is better understood as a technical rebound triggered by “oversold + crowded shorts,” not a trend reversal. The bottom line for participation is: treat it as a short-term trading game, set your stop-loss, and don’t take the rebound as a reversal.
But this is a trading signal, not an investing signal. HMSTR has fallen 98%+ from its high; the fundamentals have not shown any fundamental improvement. The project is still in the process of repairing user losses and the collapse of trust. This market move is better understood as a technical rebound triggered by “oversold + crowded shorts,” not a trend reversal. The bottom line for participation is: treat it as a short-term trading game, set your stop-loss, and don’t take the rebound as a reversal.
Sourced by user sharing on Binance
Tonight’s $RIVN and $HOOD also both rose as scheduled. This evening, only semiconductor equipment is performing poorly. Right now, only KLA is in a floating loss; the others, including $BBX , are all profitable. Besides that, my personal positions currently also include hims.
Log in to explore more content