远山洞见
永远持有BTC | 专注投研分析 | 相信周期轮动，看好加密未来。
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Someone who understands Ethereum better than Tom Lee has appeared, but unfortunately, it's a clear short?
Someone who understands Ethereum better than Tom Lee has appeared.
Institutions are crazily shorting, Tom Lee is crazily calling, and the founder is quietly selling.
Yesterday, when I saw a message in the group, my first reaction was: Finally, someone is stepping in.
It's not retail investors opposing each other, it's not KOLs shouting across the void, but a professional short-selling firm in the U.S., Culper Research, openly announcing a short on $ETH and the stock of BitMine, the largest crypto treasury company in Ethereum.
What's even harsher is that it wrote this in the report:
"Vitalik is selling, while bulls like Tom Lee are completely unaware of the new reality for ETH. We stand with Vitalik."
Institutions are crazily shorting, Tom Lee is crazily calling, and the founder is quietly selling.
Yesterday, when I saw a message in the group, my first reaction was: Finally, someone is stepping in.
It's not retail investors opposing each other, it's not KOLs shouting across the void, but a professional short-selling firm in the U.S., Culper Research, openly announcing a short on $ETH and the stock of BitMine, the largest crypto treasury company in Ethereum.
What's even harsher is that it wrote this in the report:
"Vitalik is selling, while bulls like Tom Lee are completely unaware of the new reality for ETH. We stand with Vitalik."
After 2026, humanity officially enters the era of comprehensive AI.
The era of the App Store is coming to an end, and the era of the Skill Store is beginning.
The future no longer requires individual Apps; you only need a dedicated Agent, and then equip it with skills.
The era of the App Store is coming to an end, and the era of the Skill Store is beginning.
The future no longer requires individual Apps; you only need a dedicated Agent, and then equip it with skills.
I tested two products, and both turned out to be a complete flop. 1. The Adora Deep Sleep Pillow—hyped to the skies on Xiaohongshu and other social media platforms. After using it for a week, my pillowcase was stained with blood almost every morning—after checking, I realized that its breathability and dryness were actually too much for my nasal mucosa, which simply couldn’t take it. Marketing will never tell you about these kinds of individual differences. 2. I also gave OpenClaw a try. The bottom line is that the gap between domestic APIs and overseas APIs is so vast it feels like they’re two completely different products. On top of that, with Claude, GPT, and Gemini’s commercial versions already more than sufficient, there’s really no need for ordinary people to jump on this bandwagon and mess around with it.
Your shanzhai coin is at its historical low, but could this be a good thing?。。。
A friend has a position, and the average buying price is still 8 times away from the current price
It's not that the current price needs to rise 8 times to break even, it's that the current price multiplied by 8 is his cost
He hasn't opened this coin in two months. It's not that he forgot, it's that he doesn't dare to look
Moreover, the group hasn't discussed the market lately, because there's nothing good to talk about. Occasionally someone bubbles up, basically just these few sentences:
"My XX has dropped 97%, is there still hope?"
"I told you XX is trash"
"This wave doesn't have a season for shanzhai, it's a scam"
"If I don't cut losses soon, it will really go to zero"
I can't refute a single one.
But a couple of days ago I saw a set of data that made me start to think about a question: is this the end of the world, or the end of a big cleanup?
It's not that the current price needs to rise 8 times to break even, it's that the current price multiplied by 8 is his cost
He hasn't opened this coin in two months. It's not that he forgot, it's that he doesn't dare to look
Moreover, the group hasn't discussed the market lately, because there's nothing good to talk about. Occasionally someone bubbles up, basically just these few sentences:
"My XX has dropped 97%, is there still hope?"
"I told you XX is trash"
"This wave doesn't have a season for shanzhai, it's a scam"
"If I don't cut losses soon, it will really go to zero"
I can't refute a single one.
But a couple of days ago I saw a set of data that made me start to think about a question: is this the end of the world, or the end of a big cleanup?
Why do I say he might be the only altcoin blue chip?
One week after deBridge released MCP, I felt a rhythm in cross-chain bridges.
I spent half the night last night trying to install deBridge's MCP on Claude Desktop.
The installation didn't go well, it got stuck at the environment configuration step. But that doesn't stop me from thinking this is quite interesting.
deBridge released their MCP (Model Context Protocol) last week, which simply means that AI assistants can directly call cross-chain protocols.
You can tell Claude, "Help me check the routing for transferring 100 USDC from Solana to Arbitrum," and it can assist you with that. No need to open a webpage, no need to connect a wallet, no need to compare prices yourself.
I spent half the night last night trying to install deBridge's MCP on Claude Desktop.
The installation didn't go well, it got stuck at the environment configuration step. But that doesn't stop me from thinking this is quite interesting.
deBridge released their MCP (Model Context Protocol) last week, which simply means that AI assistants can directly call cross-chain protocols.
You can tell Claude, "Help me check the routing for transferring 100 USDC from Solana to Arbitrum," and it can assist you with that. No need to open a webpage, no need to connect a wallet, no need to compare prices yourself.
This company in the crypto circle laid off half its staff, and the stock price actually rose by 21%?
Layoffs of 4,000 people, and the stock price rose by 21%. Do you think this is normal?
When this news came out yesterday, it took me two scrolls to realize.
Block — the cryptocurrency finance company founded by Jack Dorsey, announced layoffs of nearly half. From more than 10,000 down to less than 6,000, over 4,000 people will leave.
Then the stock price rose by 21% after hours.
I took a screenshot and sent it to the group, and no one found it strange. Some said, "It's normal, there is too much redundancy," others said, "It should have been this way long ago," and someone sent a thumbs-up emoji.
I didn't like it.
Jack's original words are worth reading in full.
When this news came out yesterday, it took me two scrolls to realize.
Block — the cryptocurrency finance company founded by Jack Dorsey, announced layoffs of nearly half. From more than 10,000 down to less than 6,000, over 4,000 people will leave.
Then the stock price rose by 21% after hours.
I took a screenshot and sent it to the group, and no one found it strange. Some said, "It's normal, there is too much redundancy," others said, "It should have been this way long ago," and someone sent a thumbs-up emoji.
I didn't like it.
Jack's original words are worth reading in full.
I don't know where the bottom is, but some data is definitely worth a look
A couple of days ago, the atmosphere in the market was like this
--「This round of decline has been too fast, the bottom is probably still far away」
--「Anonymous Doctor said, the bottom will be seen in 2027, 27000 USD」
--「ETF continues to flow out, institutions are running, retail investors are still buying」
--「Don't try to catch the bottom, let's talk when it reaches 30,000」
Then after the BTC rebound last night, the tone changed dramatically from the community to social media:
--「Wow, has the bottom passed?」
--「I haven't gotten in yet」
--「Should I chase now? Is chasing now just buying at a high?」
Hahaha, I don't know if you all feel the same. When it drops, it's not low enough, and when it rises, I'm afraid it's too late.
--「This round of decline has been too fast, the bottom is probably still far away」
--「Anonymous Doctor said, the bottom will be seen in 2027, 27000 USD」
--「ETF continues to flow out, institutions are running, retail investors are still buying」
--「Don't try to catch the bottom, let's talk when it reaches 30,000」
Then after the BTC rebound last night, the tone changed dramatically from the community to social media:
--「Wow, has the bottom passed?」
--「I haven't gotten in yet」
--「Should I chase now? Is chasing now just buying at a high?」
Hahaha, I don't know if you all feel the same. When it drops, it's not low enough, and when it rises, I'm afraid it's too late.
Why do we say that the money we lost in 2022, is likely taken by Wall Street in 10 minutes.
Why do we say that the money we lost in 2022,
is likely taken by Wall Street in 10 minutes.
Brothers should still remember that feeling. BTC halved, ETH halved, altcoins went to zero, and no one was talking in the group.
That year, whether you bought Luna or not, you probably lost money because the collapse of Luna triggered a chain reaction, Three Arrows Capital went down, Voyager went down, FTX also went down, and the entire market was dragged into a crypto winter.
Regarding 'who should be responsible for 2022', there has always been a standard answer in the crypto circle.
- Luna founder Do Kwon is a fraud, sentenced to 15 years, deservedly so.
is likely taken by Wall Street in 10 minutes.
Brothers should still remember that feeling. BTC halved, ETH halved, altcoins went to zero, and no one was talking in the group.
That year, whether you bought Luna or not, you probably lost money because the collapse of Luna triggered a chain reaction, Three Arrows Capital went down, Voyager went down, FTX also went down, and the entire market was dragged into a crypto winter.
Regarding 'who should be responsible for 2022', there has always been a standard answer in the crypto circle.
- Luna founder Do Kwon is a fraud, sentenced to 15 years, deservedly so.
The noise is too loud, personally I choose to speak less and observe more, everyone recommends quality bloggers to each other,
Taking advantage of the pullback, I added a large position in Bitcoin, and I'll share a few CryptoQuant data
USDT's 60-day net outflow has dropped below -$3B, the last time this happened was at the end of 2022 when Bitcoin was at $16K
Binance's purchasing power index has also fallen to the level of July 2024, and we all know what happened next, it rose all the way to 100,000
The fear index is now only 5, the historical low. COVID-19 was at 8, Terra's collapse was at 6, and FTX's explosion was at 6
Although the market is uncertain
But with selling pressure at this level, I personally think it's about time
Added, live well
$BTC
Taking advantage of the pullback, I added a large position in Bitcoin, and I'll share a few CryptoQuant data
USDT's 60-day net outflow has dropped below -$3B, the last time this happened was at the end of 2022 when Bitcoin was at $16K
Binance's purchasing power index has also fallen to the level of July 2024, and we all know what happened next, it rose all the way to 100,000
The fear index is now only 5, the historical low. COVID-19 was at 8, Terra's collapse was at 6, and FTX's explosion was at 6
Although the market is uncertain
But with selling pressure at this level, I personally think it's about time
Added, live well
$BTC
The worst start to a year for Bitcoin in a decade, but this time I can't find a reason.
Last night I increased my BTC holdings. Then I received several private messages, all asking the same question: How low will it go? Why is it dropping? How much longer will it drop?
My answer is I don't know.
But compared to the 'justified crashes' of 2018 and 2022, the 'unjustified drop' this time in 2026 may be more painful.
Because with a justified crash, at least you know when it will bottom out. With an unjustified drop, you don't know when it will stop.
This is the worst start to a year for Bitcoin in a decade.
Let's first look at how bad the data is.
- BTC has dropped 24% year-to-date, currently around $64,652.
- ETH has dropped 34% year-to-date, currently around $1,861.
My answer is I don't know.
But compared to the 'justified crashes' of 2018 and 2022, the 'unjustified drop' this time in 2026 may be more painful.
Because with a justified crash, at least you know when it will bottom out. With an unjustified drop, you don't know when it will stop.
This is the worst start to a year for Bitcoin in a decade.
Let's first look at how bad the data is.
- BTC has dropped 24% year-to-date, currently around $64,652.
- ETH has dropped 34% year-to-date, currently around $1,861.
USD1 Suddenly collapsed, let's briefly outline the timeline.
1️⃣ On-chain detective zachxbt posted a warning about a major investigation to be released on February 26, exposing one of the most profitable companies in crypto for long-term abuse of internal data for insider trading.
2️⃣ At a critical moment, everyone noticed that Eric Trump, Donald Trump's eldest son, was frantically deleting content related to $USD1 and $WLFI from his account. $USD1 subsequently uncoupled.
3️⃣ The biggest victims this time were the retail investors who were trying to take advantage of the situation. Previously, they launched a USD1 position airdrop activity, where if you put USD1 as collateral in the contract, you could get a 1.2x yield bonus.
4️⃣ Many people thought this was a surefire "money printing" opportunity, using USDC to exchange for USD1 for investment while bearing the cost of exchange rate loss. The result??? Were they cut again???
1️⃣ On-chain detective zachxbt posted a warning about a major investigation to be released on February 26, exposing one of the most profitable companies in crypto for long-term abuse of internal data for insider trading.
2️⃣ At a critical moment, everyone noticed that Eric Trump, Donald Trump's eldest son, was frantically deleting content related to $USD1 and $WLFI from his account. $USD1 subsequently uncoupled.
3️⃣ The biggest victims this time were the retail investors who were trying to take advantage of the situation. Previously, they launched a USD1 position airdrop activity, where if you put USD1 as collateral in the contract, you could get a 1.2x yield bonus.
4️⃣ Many people thought this was a surefire "money printing" opportunity, using USDC to exchange for USD1 for investment while bearing the cost of exchange rate loss. The result??? Were they cut again???
Hello @币安广场 , please recommend my tweet to those you think can get rich in 2026. The fifth day welcomes the God of Wealth, the God of Wealth is here!
It is still a long way from the deep bear
At that time, when a message was sent in the group, no one replied. It wasn't that they didn't see it, but that they really didn't want to talk.
Now, some are still cursing the project party, some are still arguing about the narrative, and some are still asking if the bottom has been picked up.
This shows that everyone is still here. There are still emotions, still expectations, and still reluctance.
The real deep bear is when everyone is unwilling — and then silent.
There is still a distance from that state.
At that time, when a message was sent in the group, no one replied. It wasn't that they didn't see it, but that they really didn't want to talk.
Now, some are still cursing the project party, some are still arguing about the narrative, and some are still asking if the bottom has been picked up.
This shows that everyone is still here. There are still emotions, still expectations, and still reluctance.
The real deep bear is when everyone is unwilling — and then silent.
There is still a distance from that state.
You're right, the real deep bear isn't like this.
When a message is sent in the group and no one replies, it's not that they didn't see it, they just really don't want to talk.
There are still people cursing the project party, still people arguing about the narrative, and still people asking if the bottom has been reached.
This shows that everyone is still here. There are still emotions, still expectations, and still reluctance.
The real deep bear is when everyone is reluctant — and then silent.
Now there is still some distance from that state.
When a message is sent in the group and no one replies, it's not that they didn't see it, they just really don't want to talk.
There are still people cursing the project party, still people arguing about the narrative, and still people asking if the bottom has been reached.
This shows that everyone is still here. There are still emotions, still expectations, and still reluctance.
The real deep bear is when everyone is reluctant — and then silent.
Now there is still some distance from that state.
In the English area, I stared at this $ETH monthly rise and fall chart for a long time, feeling a bit dazed.
January 2026 -17.52%, February -21.36%. It has fallen for six consecutive months.
The longest consecutive decline record in history was in 2018 — seven months, from May to November, seeing red every month. The worst single month was -53.79%.
Then in 2019, a new cycle began again.
The darkest moment is always before dawn — you might think this is a correct cliché, but not until you have really stayed in the dark.
January 2026 -17.52%, February -21.36%. It has fallen for six consecutive months.
The longest consecutive decline record in history was in 2018 — seven months, from May to November, seeing red every month. The worst single month was -53.79%.
Then in 2019, a new cycle began again.
The darkest moment is always before dawn — you might think this is a correct cliché, but not until you have really stayed in the dark.
Watching the retail investors in the group wailing, wondering if this month will end with a downward trend. If true, it would mean a "5 consecutive down months" on the monthly K chart.
If you check the historical data, you'll find that BTC has never recorded 5 consecutive down months. It's either 4 consecutive down months hitting the bottom, or a direct crash resulting in a brutal 6 consecutive down months. Interestingly, there is a historical gap for "5 consecutive down months".
But does this matter? Real traders never participate in this meaningless emotional exhaustion.
Whether the main players are drawing lines to fill in the gaps or applying extreme pressure, it doesn't change the underlying cyclical logic.
The public hands over their chips in panic, while we only focus on risk-reward ratios and certainty.
If you check the historical data, you'll find that BTC has never recorded 5 consecutive down months. It's either 4 consecutive down months hitting the bottom, or a direct crash resulting in a brutal 6 consecutive down months. Interestingly, there is a historical gap for "5 consecutive down months".
But does this matter? Real traders never participate in this meaningless emotional exhaustion.
Whether the main players are drawing lines to fill in the gaps or applying extreme pressure, it doesn't change the underlying cyclical logic.
The public hands over their chips in panic, while we only focus on risk-reward ratios and certainty.
The market continues to decline, and KOLs in the circle are tearing each other apart; Twitter is full of onlookers. The sentiment is at an all-time low, with pessimistic narratives everywhere.
I continue to increase my position in BTC. Not because I believe it will rise. It's because looking back, every time I truly regretted it, it wasn't because I bought incorrectly — it was because I should have bought but didn't. Every time it was 'just wait a bit longer,' and every time it resulted in regret.
Whether it's dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin, indexes, or individual stocks, essentially it’s a bet against your own emotions.
The worse the market, the harder it is to overcome emotions; the lower the buying cost, the better the odds. The reasoning isn't complicated, but the challenge is genuinely doing it.
Feng Di Mai Ru, something that foreign brothers learning Chinese can understand.
Record this moment.
I continue to increase my position in BTC. Not because I believe it will rise. It's because looking back, every time I truly regretted it, it wasn't because I bought incorrectly — it was because I should have bought but didn't. Every time it was 'just wait a bit longer,' and every time it resulted in regret.
Whether it's dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin, indexes, or individual stocks, essentially it’s a bet against your own emotions.
The worse the market, the harder it is to overcome emotions; the lower the buying cost, the better the odds. The reasoning isn't complicated, but the challenge is genuinely doing it.
Feng Di Mai Ru, something that foreign brothers learning Chinese can understand.
Record this moment.
More and more people around me are starting to talk about 'one-person companies'.
I understand this logic, but there’s one thing I want to make clear: most people haven't figured out how much their judgment is worth before quitting their jobs, which is not good.
'Assets that can earn money even while you sleep' — this statement is not wrong, but the process of building this asset is often more tiring, longer, and more uncertain than working for someone else.
Personally, I do not oppose one-person companies; in fact, I aspire to it. But we cannot treat it as a shortcut to escape mediocrity.
The real question is not whether to work for someone else or start a business. It's whether you have something you can do better than 90% of people.
If you do, then go for it. If you don't, changing the model won’t help. It might even lead to faster failure.
I understand this logic, but there’s one thing I want to make clear: most people haven't figured out how much their judgment is worth before quitting their jobs, which is not good.
'Assets that can earn money even while you sleep' — this statement is not wrong, but the process of building this asset is often more tiring, longer, and more uncertain than working for someone else.
Personally, I do not oppose one-person companies; in fact, I aspire to it. But we cannot treat it as a shortcut to escape mediocrity.
The real question is not whether to work for someone else or start a business. It's whether you have something you can do better than 90% of people.
If you do, then go for it. If you don't, changing the model won’t help. It might even lead to faster failure.
How many times has Ethereum died? Is there still a way out this time if I hold on?
Why are my friends still holding on to $ETH?
How many times has Ethereum died? Is there still a way out this time if I hold on?
A friend with traditional industry around me entered the circle at a high point, starting to build a position in ETH from $4000, now it has dropped to just over $1900.
I asked him if he is still holding on?
He said to hold on. After all, I've died many times already.
I didn't comment on him. Because my BTC has also dropped a lot.
Just this sentence from him made me want to seriously count: how many times has Ethereum actually died?
———
I did an incomplete statistic, mainly relying on memory + retrieval.
From 2018 to now, I have counted at least 5 times that Ethereum has been 'declared dead' by the market.
How many times has Ethereum died? Is there still a way out this time if I hold on?
A friend with traditional industry around me entered the circle at a high point, starting to build a position in ETH from $4000, now it has dropped to just over $1900.
I asked him if he is still holding on?
He said to hold on. After all, I've died many times already.
I didn't comment on him. Because my BTC has also dropped a lot.
Just this sentence from him made me want to seriously count: how many times has Ethereum actually died?
———
I did an incomplete statistic, mainly relying on memory + retrieval.
From 2018 to now, I have counted at least 5 times that Ethereum has been 'declared dead' by the market.
The market is still experiencing fluctuations and declines, but the data is starting to shift towards a "beginning bull?"
Previous posts mentioned that the market was like a "black hole" swallowing liquidity, but the latest on-chain data has provided a key reversal signal: the big whales are starting to net buy again.
1. From selling to buying. The annual change rate of the big whales' holdings of Bitcoin has shown a rising trend again. The rise in the purple area indicates that large funds have stopped exiting and are now entering the market.
2. From a cyclical perspective. This change in holdings is generally a typical signal of an "early bull market." History tends to rhyme; this group usually buys heavily in the early and mid-stages and then starts selling when the market reaches a frenzy peak.
3. Conclusion revision. Combined with the massive selling pressure mentioned a few days ago, the current script is very clear. Retail investors and those wavering are panic-selling their chips, while the whales are completing the turnover at the bottom.
Previous posts mentioned that the market was like a "black hole" swallowing liquidity, but the latest on-chain data has provided a key reversal signal: the big whales are starting to net buy again.
1. From selling to buying. The annual change rate of the big whales' holdings of Bitcoin has shown a rising trend again. The rise in the purple area indicates that large funds have stopped exiting and are now entering the market.
2. From a cyclical perspective. This change in holdings is generally a typical signal of an "early bull market." History tends to rhyme; this group usually buys heavily in the early and mid-stages and then starts selling when the market reaches a frenzy peak.
3. Conclusion revision. Combined with the massive selling pressure mentioned a few days ago, the current script is very clear. Retail investors and those wavering are panic-selling their chips, while the whales are completing the turnover at the bottom.
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