Territorio Blockchain
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Territorio Blockchain
Conectamos la Industria blockchain y crypto, las comunidades blockchain podcaster e influencers de youtube. @_tblockchain
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The market is back at highs, but now we need to check whether the macro is supportive
Wall Street posted one of its best weeks in recent months. The S&P 500 gained 3.6%, the Nasdaq 5.2%, and the Dow Jones 3%, with the S&P 500 and the Dow reaching new all-time highs. But what’s probably most interesting isn’t how much the market has risen, but why virtually everything worked at the same time.
Stocks, long-duration bonds, investment-grade credit, and gold all advanced together, creating a sort of return of the “everything rally.” In equities, too, a piece that had been missing for some time has returned… the participation of the big tech names.
The “Magnificent 7” have already accumulated a 13% recovery from the late-June lows and are once again very close to their highs. Microsoft is up 42% since its June lows, and Amazon is up 21%. This matters because, given how heavily these companies weigh in the indexes, it’s hard to think about new sustainable highs for the S&P 500 without their participation.
Added to that is the fact that earnings are continuing to back it up. SpaceX rose more than 20% during the week after reporting $7.8 billion in revenue—up 90.2% year over year and above expectations. Palantir advanced about 38% after beating forecasts and raising its estimates for the full year.
And the market expects that strength to continue. Consensus projects S&P 500 earnings per share growth of 26% in the third quarter and close to 10% for the median company. If that happens, it would be the third consecutive quarter with total earnings growth above 20%.
So far, the scenario looks very favorable. The problem is that part of the most recent rally also rests on a paradox we need to watch: bad economic news is back to turning into good news for the stock market.
Wall Street posted one of its best weeks in recent months. The S&P 500 gained 3.6%, the Nasdaq 5.2%, and the Dow Jones 3%, with the S&P 500 and the Dow reaching new all-time highs. But what’s probably most interesting isn’t how much the market has risen, but why virtually everything worked at the same time.
Stocks, long-duration bonds, investment-grade credit, and gold all advanced together, creating a sort of return of the “everything rally.” In equities, too, a piece that had been missing for some time has returned… the participation of the big tech names.
The “Magnificent 7” have already accumulated a 13% recovery from the late-June lows and are once again very close to their highs. Microsoft is up 42% since its June lows, and Amazon is up 21%. This matters because, given how heavily these companies weigh in the indexes, it’s hard to think about new sustainable highs for the S&P 500 without their participation.
Added to that is the fact that earnings are continuing to back it up. SpaceX rose more than 20% during the week after reporting $7.8 billion in revenue—up 90.2% year over year and above expectations. Palantir advanced about 38% after beating forecasts and raising its estimates for the full year.
And the market expects that strength to continue. Consensus projects S&P 500 earnings per share growth of 26% in the third quarter and close to 10% for the median company. If that happens, it would be the third consecutive quarter with total earnings growth above 20%.
So far, the scenario looks very favorable. The problem is that part of the most recent rally also rests on a paradox we need to watch: bad economic news is back to turning into good news for the stock market.
Until there is more economic certainty, American consumer sentiment will remain vulnerable
Consumer confidence has been under scrutiny in recent months, due to investors' concerns about retail sales and consumer spending, the engine of the U.S. economy. If consumer confidence continues to decline, it is logical that consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. GDP, will also be pressured. A reduction in spending could ripple throughout the economy.
The consumer confidence index has once again fallen short of economists' expectations, marking the fifth consecutive result since the November report came in below estimates. If there is anything positive, it is that each of the previous results was revised upward the following month. However, the most recent reading is the lowest since January 2021.
Confidence continues to decline among investors, consumers, and businesses as economic concerns and uncertainty about economic policy intensify. Until there is greater certainty in the tariff and macroeconomic arena, confidence and sentiment remain vulnerable. From now on, investors will focus their attention on this week's GDP and PCE reports (the latter being the inflation indicator preferred by the Fed) and next week's employment report to better understand the current economic context.
$BTC
Consumer confidence has been under scrutiny in recent months, due to investors' concerns about retail sales and consumer spending, the engine of the U.S. economy. If consumer confidence continues to decline, it is logical that consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. GDP, will also be pressured. A reduction in spending could ripple throughout the economy.
The consumer confidence index has once again fallen short of economists' expectations, marking the fifth consecutive result since the November report came in below estimates. If there is anything positive, it is that each of the previous results was revised upward the following month. However, the most recent reading is the lowest since January 2021.
Confidence continues to decline among investors, consumers, and businesses as economic concerns and uncertainty about economic policy intensify. Until there is greater certainty in the tariff and macroeconomic arena, confidence and sentiment remain vulnerable. From now on, investors will focus their attention on this week's GDP and PCE reports (the latter being the inflation indicator preferred by the Fed) and next week's employment report to better understand the current economic context.
$BTC
Cryptos bounce back after Trump's announcement of a strategic reserve of crypto assets
Crypto markets regained ground on Sunday after President Donald Trump's announcement on Truth Social about the creation of a strategic reserve of crypto assets in the U.S., which will include bitcoin, ethereum, solana, XRP, and ADA.
Bitcoin rose by 10% after the announcement, surpassing $90,000 again, while altcoins experienced even greater increases, with ADA skyrocketing over 70%.
Trump also confirmed that the first Crypto Summit will be held at the White House this Friday, featuring founders, CEOs, and key investors from the crypto industry, as well as members of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets. The event will be chaired by David Sacks, a White House advisor on AI and crypto.
Trump's announcement has boosted sentiment in the markets, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index rising to 33, a notable change compared to the 10 (Extreme Fear) recorded earlier last week.
Investors will be watching the Crypto Summit on Friday, hoping for more details on the implementation of this strategic reserve of crypto assets.
$BTC
Crypto markets regained ground on Sunday after President Donald Trump's announcement on Truth Social about the creation of a strategic reserve of crypto assets in the U.S., which will include bitcoin, ethereum, solana, XRP, and ADA.
Bitcoin rose by 10% after the announcement, surpassing $90,000 again, while altcoins experienced even greater increases, with ADA skyrocketing over 70%.
Trump also confirmed that the first Crypto Summit will be held at the White House this Friday, featuring founders, CEOs, and key investors from the crypto industry, as well as members of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets. The event will be chaired by David Sacks, a White House advisor on AI and crypto.
Trump's announcement has boosted sentiment in the markets, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index rising to 33, a notable change compared to the 10 (Extreme Fear) recorded earlier last week.
Investors will be watching the Crypto Summit on Friday, hoping for more details on the implementation of this strategic reserve of crypto assets.
$BTC
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