毕佬TCBTCW

投资永远是自己的事丨买入是短线,持有是长线丨接受不了短期浮亏,在任何行业都是韭菜丨眼光决定口袋丨三分钟热度,注定没有主见丨机会永远出现在认知之后丨公众号:毕佬的日常
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I won't consider trying to catch a rebound in META and the like until it gets near 480–500. Choices matter more than effort. The more you thrash about on the wrong path, the deeper you sink. Before you've lost it all, there's still a chance to turn things around. Stop blindly messing around. The market has no sympathy for those who serve as fuel; you're the only one responsible for yourself.
I won't consider trying to catch a rebound in META and the like until it gets near 480–500.

Choices matter more than effort. The more you thrash about on the wrong path, the deeper you sink.

Before you've lost it all, there's still a chance to turn things around. Stop blindly messing around. The market has no sympathy for those who serve as fuel; you're the only one responsible for yourself.
From a cyclical perspective, both M-stocks and A-shares are in bear markets, and at this stage the bear-market risk for M-stocks is even greater than for A-shares! M-stocks really know how to rally in a bull market and really know how to plunge in a bear market. When they’re on your side, they’re genuinely good to you—like brothers—but they can turn on you in a flash. Still, it’s about the issue, not the person! A-shares are sneaky and two-faced, acting one way to your face and another behind your back. They have that air of a petty person getting power, with everyone in their circle rising along with them!
From a cyclical perspective, both M-stocks and A-shares are in bear markets, and at this stage the bear-market risk for M-stocks is even greater than for A-shares!

M-stocks really know how to rally in a bull market and really know how to plunge in a bear market. When they’re on your side, they’re genuinely good to you—like brothers—but they can turn on you in a flash. Still, it’s about the issue, not the person!
A-shares are sneaky and two-faced, acting one way to your face and another behind your back. They have that air of a petty person getting power, with everyone in their circle rising along with them!
GOOGL’s second dip to 270 has already played out. Next week, let’s see how the rebound goes. The first resistance is at 315, and above 315 there are resistance levels everywhere! Even the highest-quality assets can’t escape bull and bear cycles. A major shakeout isn’t a bad thing for the long-term outlook! Around 200, I’ll buy in batches and build a position for the next bull market, but it definitely won’t get there in the short term! Choosing the right path matters more than working hard. The more you struggle down the wrong path, the deeper you sink. While you still have money left, there’s a chance to turn things around. Stop messing around blindly. The market won’t show mercy to its fuel; you’re the only one responsible for yourself.
GOOGL’s second dip to 270 has already played out. Next week, let’s see how the rebound goes. The first resistance is at 315, and above 315 there are resistance levels everywhere! Even the highest-quality assets can’t escape bull and bear cycles. A major shakeout isn’t a bad thing for the long-term outlook! Around 200, I’ll buy in batches and build a position for the next bull market, but it definitely won’t get there in the short term!

Choosing the right path matters more than working hard. The more you struggle down the wrong path, the deeper you sink.

While you still have money left, there’s a chance to turn things around. Stop messing around blindly. The market won’t show mercy to its fuel; you’re the only one responsible for yourself.
The hotter MU’s bull market gets, the colder its bear market will be! How long can 900 hold? Bull and bear cycles are just like the changing seasons. In a bear market, MU may first test its previous low around 700, then fall by more than half, break below 600, and head into the 500s! Choosing the right path matters more than working hard. The more you bounce around on the wrong path, the deeper you’ll sink. Before you lose it all, there’s still a chance to turn things around. Stop making reckless moves. The market won’t feel sorry for its fuel; you’re the only one responsible for yourself.
The hotter MU’s bull market gets, the colder its bear market will be! How long can 900 hold? Bull and bear cycles are just like the changing seasons.

In a bear market, MU may first test its previous low around 700, then fall by more than half, break below 600, and head into the 500s!

Choosing the right path matters more than working hard. The more you bounce around on the wrong path, the deeper you’ll sink.

Before you lose it all, there’s still a chance to turn things around. Stop making reckless moves. The market won’t feel sorry for its fuel; you’re the only one responsible for yourself.
Before the high-volume drop on the daily chart, the short position opened around 81.5k on Thursday kept making money. After yesterday’s drop, I placed an order near the low to catch the weekend rebound and recovery—nailed it again! Choosing the right path matters more than trying harder. The more you struggle down the wrong path, the deeper you’ll sink. Before you lose it all, there’s still a chance to turn things around. Stop messing around blindly. The market won’t show mercy to liquidation fuel; you’re the only one responsible for yourself.
Before the high-volume drop on the daily chart, the short position opened around 81.5k on Thursday kept making money. After yesterday’s drop, I placed an order near the low to catch the weekend rebound and recovery—nailed it again!

Choosing the right path matters more than trying harder. The more you struggle down the wrong path, the deeper you’ll sink.

Before you lose it all, there’s still a chance to turn things around. Stop messing around blindly. The market won’t show mercy to liquidation fuel; you’re the only one responsible for yourself.
If gold rebounds to 4,200, get out while you can—especially if you’re not investing spare cash. The bear market has a long way to go, and the highs and lows are gradually moving lower! The opportunity cost is too high. If you hold on until the end, you’ll still lose more and end up selling at a loss to cover other expenses! You can easily make the money back elsewhere; just rebalance your portfolio! Don’t make such a rookie mistake again! Gold: 3,500; silver: 40!
If gold rebounds to 4,200, get out while you can—especially if you’re not investing spare cash. The bear market has a long way to go, and the highs and lows are gradually moving lower! The opportunity cost is too high. If you hold on until the end, you’ll still lose more and end up selling at a loss to cover other expenses!

You can easily make the money back elsewhere; just rebalance your portfolio! Don’t make such a rookie mistake again!

Gold: 3,500; silver: 40!
Article
Time Is the Most Reliable Money-Printing MachineEvery angler knows this: if you want to catch big fish, you first have to resist the urge to catch small ones. If you reel in the moment the float twitches, you’ll only ever catch fish the size of your palm. You can fish all day and fill a bucket, yet still not have enough for a tasty soup. The truly big fish are deep underwater, away from the busy spots. Catching them takes patience: you need to wait, use the right bait, and sit still. You also need to watch others around you reel in fish one after another and still stay calm enough not to make a move. When it comes down to it, investing is just like fishing. Our real opponent isn’t the market; it’s our own fingers—the ones that swipe to sell.

Time Is the Most Reliable Money-Printing Machine

Every angler knows this: if you want to catch big fish, you first have to resist the urge to catch small ones.
If you reel in the moment the float twitches, you’ll only ever catch fish the size of your palm. You can fish all day and fill a bucket, yet still not have enough for a tasty soup. The truly big fish are deep underwater, away from the busy spots. Catching them takes patience: you need to wait, use the right bait, and sit still. You also need to watch others around you reel in fish one after another and still stay calm enough not to make a move.
When it comes down to it, investing is just like fishing.
Our real opponent isn’t the market; it’s our own fingers—the ones that swipe to sell.
Placed a short order at 81.5k ahead of time last night. It’s now below 80k—keep raking in the profits.
Placed a short order at 81.5k ahead of time last night. It’s now below 80k—keep raking in the profits.
I held my long position from Monday for three days, and only today did I finally manage to make a little profit. The broader market is still weak, and the pullback isn’t over yet.
I held my long position from Monday for three days, and only today did I finally manage to make a little profit.

The broader market is still weak, and the pullback isn’t over yet.
I mentioned Fusay Technology when it formed a double bottom last year. But most people probably sold after making just a few times their money—selling too early is the norm! That’s perfectly normal. In investing, how much you make on one trade isn’t important; what matters is having a system that can deliver consistent, sustainable, compounding returns!
I mentioned Fusay Technology when it formed a double bottom last year. But most people probably sold after making just a few times their money—selling too early is the norm!

That’s perfectly normal. In investing, how much you make on one trade isn’t important; what matters is having a system that can deliver consistent, sustainable, compounding returns!
Although this drop in Shangwei New Materials hasn't reached the 100–93 support zone, this rebound is very close to the resistance zone! In a bear market, give up the bad habit of trying to call the top!
Although this drop in Shangwei New Materials hasn't reached the 100–93 support zone, this rebound is very close to the resistance zone! In a bear market, give up the bad habit of trying to call the top!
Add to short positions while in profit, and keep taking advantage of the pullback! The decline is healthy too—who says a bull market can't have a sharp drop?
Add to short positions while in profit, and keep taking advantage of the pullback! The decline is healthy too—who says a bull market can't have a sharp drop?
He didn’t eat a single bite of the hot meal. Then he wolfed down the food that had gone bad, bite after bite without even stopping to catch his breath. But by the time the next pot of delicious food was ready, he was too full to eat! Everyone else was enjoying their meal, while he stood by, clutching his stomach and stamping his feet in pain! This is what happens when retail investors don’t learn: they never change. No matter how much you break it down for them, the logic is simple and they can understand it perfectly well. But when it comes to putting it into practice, they’re still controlled by the limits of their own understanding! When the market is forming a bottom and about to take off, they think it’s a bull trap or that prices will keep falling. As prices rise, they get swept up in the market’s FOMO and jump in. They add more after a small pullback, then add more again after another pullback. Once they’re fully invested too early, another high-volume plunge on the daily chart comes along. The market has actually bottomed, and what follows is a period of sideways movement around the lows, indicators recovering, and the coming major B-wave rally. But they do the exact opposite: once their losses exceed what they can stomach, they sell at a loss and leave, waiting for an even lower price to get back in. Then, after the bottom is in, the B-wave rally takes off. The lower price never comes, and they jump back in near the highs! They’re always out of sync with the market throughout the entire cycle! If you want to make big money in any market, you have to wait—wait for the right moment, for a big crash or a black-swan event! Here’s an example: Someone bought a house for 4.5 million at the market peak, and let’s say the renovations, furniture, and appliances cost another 500,000. If they can’t repay the mortgage or urgently need some cash (because a family member gets sick or some other unforeseen circumstance), then, without exaggeration, if you take over the house at that point, the 500,000 worth of renovations comes free. The house cost 4.5 million, but you offer 2 million, and the seller may even urge you to hurry up and transfer the title! Investing is the same. When everyone is chasing the market, you can simply wait quietly. Wait for what? Wait until the market is plunging so badly that everyone is crying for help; until prices have fallen so far that nobody has any cash left to add to their positions; until people have to sell at a loss to cover living expenses or repay their loans. That’s when you start buying in stages. That’s where the price difference in traditional markets comes from! The truth is, nobody can catch the absolute top or bottom. But professionals don’t try to, either. Instead, they deliberately leave out the beginning and the end, because the middle of the fish is the fattest and meatiest! Remember this: if you have cash, you’ll never have trouble finding something to buy. But if you’re holding an asset, you’re not guaranteed to get back the cash you originally paid for it. Cash is king, and that never goes out of style!
He didn’t eat a single bite of the hot meal. Then he wolfed down the food that had gone bad, bite after bite without even stopping to catch his breath. But by the time the next pot of delicious food was ready, he was too full to eat! Everyone else was enjoying their meal, while he stood by, clutching his stomach and stamping his feet in pain!

This is what happens when retail investors don’t learn: they never change. No matter how much you break it down for them, the logic is simple and they can understand it perfectly well. But when it comes to putting it into practice, they’re still controlled by the limits of their own understanding!

When the market is forming a bottom and about to take off, they think it’s a bull trap or that prices will keep falling. As prices rise, they get swept up in the market’s FOMO and jump in. They add more after a small pullback, then add more again after another pullback. Once they’re fully invested too early, another high-volume plunge on the daily chart comes along. The market has actually bottomed, and what follows is a period of sideways movement around the lows, indicators recovering, and the coming major B-wave rally. But they do the exact opposite: once their losses exceed what they can stomach, they sell at a loss and leave, waiting for an even lower price to get back in. Then, after the bottom is in, the B-wave rally takes off. The lower price never comes, and they jump back in near the highs! They’re always out of sync with the market throughout the entire cycle!

If you want to make big money in any market, you have to wait—wait for the right moment, for a big crash or a black-swan event!

Here’s an example: Someone bought a house for 4.5 million at the market peak, and let’s say the renovations, furniture, and appliances cost another 500,000.

If they can’t repay the mortgage or urgently need some cash (because a family member gets sick or some other unforeseen circumstance), then, without exaggeration, if you take over the house at that point, the 500,000 worth of renovations comes free. The house cost 4.5 million, but you offer 2 million, and the seller may even urge you to hurry up and transfer the title!

Investing is the same. When everyone is chasing the market, you can simply wait quietly. Wait for what? Wait until the market is plunging so badly that everyone is crying for help; until prices have fallen so far that nobody has any cash left to add to their positions; until people have to sell at a loss to cover living expenses or repay their loans. That’s when you start buying in stages. That’s where the price difference in traditional markets comes from!

The truth is, nobody can catch the absolute top or bottom. But professionals don’t try to, either. Instead, they deliberately leave out the beginning and the end, because the middle of the fish is the fattest and meatiest!

Remember this: if you have cash, you’ll never have trouble finding something to buy. But if you’re holding an asset, you’re not guaranteed to get back the cash you originally paid for it. Cash is king, and that never goes out of style!
Gold touched 4000💲 again today—shouldn’t be surprising at all, right? The next target is to move through the vacuum zone toward the weekly high-volume area at 3500💲, though that will also take several months or more!
Gold touched 4000💲 again today—shouldn’t be surprising at all, right?
The next target is to move through the vacuum zone toward the weekly high-volume area at 3500💲, though that will also take several months or more!
Zhaowei Electromechanical has reached a resistance zone.
Zhaowei Electromechanical has reached a resistance zone.
I missed the long entry on Tuesday! So yesterday I had to wait for the market to play out and see which way moved first. This morning, the short trade is already in profit.
I missed the long entry on Tuesday! So yesterday I had to wait for the market to play out and see which way moved first. This morning, the short trade is already in profit.
You can’t have it both ways in life. If you enjoyed the 65k–87k rally, you have to accept a pullback of up to 20%. If you missed that rally, then you need to avoid getting caught in a deep pullback! Why is the broader market dragging its feet? Because 90% of the time, markets are simply range-bound. Don’t miss out on the fresh food and end up with nothing but leftovers gone bad. When the next pot of rice starts cooking, don’t hesitate! When things are booming, waiting is a kind of wisdom; when things turn icy cold, daring to draw your sword takes courage too! After a major upward wave, it normally takes 2–3 months of pullbacks to digest the gains and recover. So it’s still far too early for a B wave. A big rally inevitably comes with a major correction. Big rallies happen on high volume, and deep pullbacks will also happen on high volume! Until we see a deep, high-volume pullback, even if Bitcoin heads to 90k first, that’s still wave A, not wave B. Only a major rally followed by a major drop counts as a complete wave A! During wave A, altcoins have already served their purpose. To shine again, they’ll have to wait for wave B. Before wave B, altcoins won’t put in a standout performance! So if you have a core position, hold on to it. If you don’t, wait for a deep pullback before getting in! A lot of people have this illusion: “Everything I didn’t buy goes up, and as soon as I buy, I’m at a loss.” That’s because you entered during the choppy part of the pullback, so the market kept pulling back after you bought. Enter near the end of the pullback, and the results will be very different!
You can’t have it both ways in life. If you enjoyed the 65k–87k rally, you have to accept a pullback of up to 20%. If you missed that rally, then you need to avoid getting caught in a deep pullback!
Why is the broader market dragging its feet? Because 90% of the time, markets are simply range-bound. Don’t miss out on the fresh food and end up with nothing but leftovers gone bad.

When the next pot of rice starts cooking, don’t hesitate!

When things are booming, waiting is a kind of wisdom; when things turn icy cold, daring to draw your sword takes courage too!

After a major upward wave, it normally takes 2–3 months of pullbacks to digest the gains and recover. So it’s still far too early for a B wave. A big rally inevitably comes with a major correction. Big rallies happen on high volume, and deep pullbacks will also happen on high volume!

Until we see a deep, high-volume pullback, even if Bitcoin heads to 90k first, that’s still wave A, not wave B. Only a major rally followed by a major drop counts as a complete wave A!
During wave A, altcoins have already served their purpose. To shine again, they’ll have to wait for wave B. Before wave B, altcoins won’t put in a standout performance!

So if you have a core position, hold on to it. If you don’t, wait for a deep pullback before getting in!

A lot of people have this illusion: “Everything I didn’t buy goes up, and as soon as I buy, I’m at a loss.” That’s because you entered during the choppy part of the pullback, so the market kept pulling back after you bought. Enter near the end of the pullback, and the results will be very different!
Going long around the lower end of the consolidation range, 81k–80k, last week/today was totally fine!
Going long around the lower end of the consolidation range, 81k–80k, last week/today was totally fine!
WDC has fallen from 800 to just above 300 in four months. The Nasdaq 100 has a double-top divergence on the weekly chart, and the pre-election rally is your last chance to get out! But in a bear market, 300 won’t hold as support.
WDC has fallen from 800 to just above 300 in four months. The Nasdaq 100 has a double-top divergence on the weekly chart, and the pre-election rally is your last chance to get out! But in a bear market, 300 won’t hold as support.
Article
《Slow Is the Way of Heaven》Unitree nearly fell below 60D today; let’s see if it can do better tomorrow. Changxin has the industry advantage: it’s at 6.5D today, and another 20-point drop will bring it to the target—it’s only a matter of time! If you want to try losing money, China’s A-share market is the obvious choice! When we’re young, we don’t take exercise seriously and mess around all day. Then, when we’re old and our physical functions decline, all kinds of problems start cropping up. The same goes for investing. When you have a little capital, you overestimate your abilities and look down on doubling your money in a year or making 3–5 times your money over a cycle. You always feel your capital is too small and the pace too slow, convinced you’re the chosen one! Once you’ve lost it all, even getting your money back becomes a pipe dream, and putting food on the table becomes a problem! The market is the biggest dye vat of all, filled with every kind of person: drunks, gamblers, lechers, and gentlemen all sitting at the same table. Of course, the various devils make up over 80% of the crowd, so ordinary people who step into the market are almost certain to run into all kinds of them!

《Slow Is the Way of Heaven》

Unitree nearly fell below 60D today; let’s see if it can do better tomorrow. Changxin has the industry advantage: it’s at 6.5D today, and another 20-point drop will bring it to the target—it’s only a matter of time! If you want to try losing money, China’s A-share market is the obvious choice!
When we’re young, we don’t take exercise seriously and mess around all day. Then, when we’re old and our physical functions decline, all kinds of problems start cropping up.
The same goes for investing. When you have a little capital, you overestimate your abilities and look down on doubling your money in a year or making 3–5 times your money over a cycle. You always feel your capital is too small and the pace too slow, convinced you’re the chosen one! Once you’ve lost it all, even getting your money back becomes a pipe dream, and putting food on the table becomes a problem!
The market is the biggest dye vat of all, filled with every kind of person: drunks, gamblers, lechers, and gentlemen all sitting at the same table. Of course, the various devils make up over 80% of the crowd, so ordinary people who step into the market are almost certain to run into all kinds of them!
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