二饼主理
37 Posts
二饼主理
ETH Holder
Occasional Trader
6.6 Months
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July 23, 2026 (Thursday) ETH Evening Commentary (Condensed)
I. Market Outlook
* Intraday: Weak consolidation in the high range; watch for false breakouts and wick-driven “needle” moves.
* Medium to short term: The rebound trend has not been broken. If BTC holds above 64,000, there is still a chance for further upside and making new highs.
II. Key Data
* ETF fund flows: ETH net inflow of $72.70 million (4 consecutive days) > BTC $69.10 million (7 consecutive days). Funds have rotated into ETH, with altcoins relatively outperforming.
* Derivatives data: Futures trading is active while spot volume is shrinking. Price is more susceptible to leverage-driven swings, so the risk of false breakouts is relatively high.
* Fund flow direction: Short-term inflows are slowing; continuous outflows are seen over the next 4–12 hours, and market willingness to chase rises is decreasing.
III. Technical Analysis
* Trend: The daily chart is still in the main uptrend wave 3.
* Resistance: MA100–120 (1976–2000) is strong pressure in the medium to long term. Once broken, it may further open up upside space.
* MACD: The bullish structure remains, but upward momentum has weakened.
* BOLL: Daily is still moderately bullish; the 4-hour and 1-hour charts have entered a range.
* RSI: Daily and 4-hour remain relatively strong; the 1-hour has pulled back to around 50, making the short-term direction unclear.
IV. Key Ranges
ETH
* Resistance: 1940–1950
* Support: 1910–1890
BTC
* Resistance: 66,900–67,500
* Support: 65,100–64,600
V. Trading Suggestions
* ETH: Scale in long between 1915–1900; scale out / short in the 1940–1950 zone.
* BTC: Scale in long between 65,000–64,500; short between 66,500–67,700.
* Strategy: Focus on range trading—buy the dips and sell the highs. Absolutely avoid chasing breakouts or panic-selling. Manage position size and stay alert to wick/“needle” risks.
I. Market Outlook
* Intraday: Weak consolidation in the high range; watch for false breakouts and wick-driven “needle” moves.
* Medium to short term: The rebound trend has not been broken. If BTC holds above 64,000, there is still a chance for further upside and making new highs.
II. Key Data
* ETF fund flows: ETH net inflow of $72.70 million (4 consecutive days) > BTC $69.10 million (7 consecutive days). Funds have rotated into ETH, with altcoins relatively outperforming.
* Derivatives data: Futures trading is active while spot volume is shrinking. Price is more susceptible to leverage-driven swings, so the risk of false breakouts is relatively high.
* Fund flow direction: Short-term inflows are slowing; continuous outflows are seen over the next 4–12 hours, and market willingness to chase rises is decreasing.
III. Technical Analysis
* Trend: The daily chart is still in the main uptrend wave 3.
* Resistance: MA100–120 (1976–2000) is strong pressure in the medium to long term. Once broken, it may further open up upside space.
* MACD: The bullish structure remains, but upward momentum has weakened.
* BOLL: Daily is still moderately bullish; the 4-hour and 1-hour charts have entered a range.
* RSI: Daily and 4-hour remain relatively strong; the 1-hour has pulled back to around 50, making the short-term direction unclear.
IV. Key Ranges
ETH
* Resistance: 1940–1950
* Support: 1910–1890
BTC
* Resistance: 66,900–67,500
* Support: 65,100–64,600
V. Trading Suggestions
* ETH: Scale in long between 1915–1900; scale out / short in the 1940–1950 zone.
* BTC: Scale in long between 65,000–64,500; short between 66,500–67,700.
* Strategy: Focus on range trading—buy the dips and sell the highs. Absolutely avoid chasing breakouts or panic-selling. Manage position size and stay alert to wick/“needle” risks.
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