杨旭yy

#加密市场观察 sold another golden dog. It's so hard...

#加密市场观察 Every year, a golden dog is born in Ethereum. Can you guess which one? How about MANYU? Is there a chance? Buy 100 oil and see if a loser can turn their life around! Without further ado, let's get to it.

#比特币2026年价格预测 Ethereum Golden Dog, almost couldn't get it back, scared the baby to death.

#Strategy增持比特币 Taking advantage of the popularity of Chinese dogs, let's catch the last train. The New Year is approaching, $Happy New Year! Just launched, testing the waters, doubling the investment.

#ETH巨鲸动向 Now the primary market is so chaotic, what the hell: I just arrived, you're already here: I came in the snow, I didn't buy, you're already here: I bought, damn it, grandson... a whole bunch that can't be bought, I'll just stick to Musk's little puppy, puppies

#币安上线币安人生 These past few days I saw a few Chinese dogs but didn't dare to buy, who would have thought they shot up dozens of times in just one or two days, oh well, leave it to fate, just buy a few tens of U for fun, back to zero if it happens, #Everything is fleeting

#币安上线币安人生 The crypto world is too surreal, my perception has been颠覆ed by my lazy fish. Is it the chaos of the community? Chinese dogs, these coin names are all over the place and their gains are quite impressive

#pepe Don't always focus on the old coins like pepe.doge.shib, the new 100x meme coins are quietly rocketing to the moon. Puppies, Musk's little puppy, is the underdog's path to逆袭. It's all about who can hold on.

#加密市场观察 2026年1月币圈大事速览

- January 7: Ethereum L2 scalability upgrade: increased single block blob capacity, reduced L2 transaction costs, benefiting L2s like Arbitrum and DeFi.

- January 7: Stellar privacy upgrade (zk-SNARKs), accompanied by the unlocking of 30 million HYPE tokens, creating a bull-bear battle for XLM.

- January 14: BNB Chain (BSC) Fermi hard fork, block interval reduced to 450 milliseconds, improving throughput.

- January 15: MANTRA Chain completes OM token mainnet migration.

- Mid-January: Qtum hard fork, synchronizing with Bitcoin 29.1 version and compatible with Ethereum Pectra update.

- Around January 20: NXT mainnet stops block production, migrating to the Ardor mainnet.

- Maduro's arrest (Jan 3) triggered geopolitical volatility, pushing BTC briefly above $93,000, with spot ETFs recording $471 million net inflow—the highest in two months.

Upcoming (Jan 8–Jan 31)

- Trump plans to nominate Federal Reserve Chair on January 9 (Kevin Hassett a top contender): dovish倾向 may boost liquidity-sensitive cryptos; monitor expectations for rate cuts and asset reactions.

- Aptos unlocks approximately 11.31 million APT (about $21.94 million) on January 11, representing 0.70% of circulating supply, involving team, community, and investors—potentially pressuring short-term price.

- U.S. Senate CLARITY Act vote (mid-January): clarifies definition of digital commodities, reshaping exchange compliance rules; if passed, increases regulatory certainty and benefits institutional participation.

- U.S. government shutdown risk (deadline January 31): may impact market liquidity and risk appetite; monitor capital flight to safe-haven assets.

Key Observations

- Macro: Federal Reserve Chair nomination and policy expectations directly affect liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC/ETH; $94,000 is a key short-term resistance for BTC, while $88,000 serves as support.

- Regulation: CLARITY Act and Hong Kong’s new regulations jointly shape compliance boundaries, with stablecoins and L2 sectors benefiting more.

- Unlock: APT and HYPE unlocks may trigger short-term volatility—watch for selling pressure on related tokens.

- Capital: ETF net inflows and institutional movements continue to validate market confidence; monitor holdings changes by giants like BlackRock.

#ETH巨鲸动向 meme coin's explosive power is like a runaway wild horse. Once it starts, it cannot be stopped, just launched, stay calm and steady... build up MANYU

#pepe wants to make a big profit with a small investment by engaging in meme coins. If developed well, even a 'dog coin' can turn into a 'golden dog'. Without further ado, I'll start with 10U... the rest will be left to time.

Eager fans of Elon Musk's little puppies, the loyal followers everywhere 😀

#CHZ Every year, the fan tokens for the World Cup🏆 rise crazily. CHZ, as the leading sports token, is currently undervalued and worth a shot. Yesterday, the trading volume increased, and it just started. I hope I can benefit from it.

#加密市场观察 Will Japan's rate hike cause a crash in the cryptocurrency market? Japan's rate hike tomorrow (19th) is clearly negative for the crypto market, mainly due to the impact from the unwinding of yen carry trades and liquidity contraction. Major cryptocurrencies like BTC/ETH face short-term pressure for a pullback. It is advised to reduce positions to manage risks and wait for the meeting's statements before making strategic moves.

1. Key Expectations and Impact Logic

- Rate hike expectations: The market prices in a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75%, with a probability of 98%, marking a new high in nearly 20 years.
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- Core transmission: Rising yen financing costs → large-scale unwinding of carry trades (borrowing low-yielding yen to buy high-yield risk assets) → funds flow back to Japan → tightening liquidity in the crypto market → pressure on major cryptocurrencies like BTC/ETH.
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- Historical verification: After three rate hikes in March/July 2024 and January 2025, BTC fell more than 20%, with a maximum decline of 31%.

2. Market Responses to Different Scenarios

1. In line with expectations (25bp rate hike, neutral statement): Short-term BTC may test support at $70,000-$72,500, with a pullback of 20%-25% within 3-6 weeks, and altcoins experiencing greater volatility.
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2. Exceeding expectations (50bp rate hike or signals of continued rate hikes): Deep pullback in the crypto market, BTC may drop 30%+, with panic selling intensifying.
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3. Below expectations (maintaining interest rates): The crypto market may see a rebound, but the upside is limited; liquidity tightening by the end of the year remains a constraint.

3. Operational Suggestions

- Short-term: Immediately reduce BTC/ETH positions to below 30%, set a **5%** stop-loss, and avoid high leverage and low market cap altcoins.
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- Medium-term: If BTC pulls back to around $70,000 after the meeting, and if the Bank of Japan's statement is dovish, consider gradually accumulating major cryptocurrencies, focusing on compliant payments, institutional custody, and other resilient sectors.
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- Risk warning: Year-end liquidity is tight, combined with the impact of interest rate hikes, the market's absorption capacity is weak, beware of liquidity risks. The above views are not investment advice; the crypto market is risky, and investments should be made cautiously!

#GEC The fried slice coin ultimately harvested, on the 16th I told you to run, I don't know how many people will cry again, learn your lesson! In the future, try to stay away from such coins, now the primary market is full of traps, don't play with local coins that have no backing and no well-known issuers, get ready for the New Year, keep your pockets tight. Amen...

#加密市场观察 If you have bought this currency GEC, hurry up and sell it. Stay away from fraudulent coins. Any coin that only rises and never falls is abnormal and illogical. The bulldozer mode preys on the greed of small investors, with daily increases of a dozen or twenty points, which is indeed quite tempting. Little do they know, the manipulators can crash the market at any time, sending it back to zero. There won't even be tears left to cry... Run fast.

#puppies Looking back at the cryptocurrency world, it seems that every year there is a big dog born. Looking forward to 2026, which one will it be? Among the dog series, which one has a better chance of breaking out? Musk's little puppies, I think the narrative is good and the current price is low, having dropped 6 times from its high, now is a good time to lay low and wait for a miracle to happen...

#usdt The biggest risks in the future of the cryptocurrency world
On November 26, 2025, S&P downgraded the stability rating of USDT from Level 4 (restricted) to Level 5 (weak), the lowest level in this rating system. Its future mainly faces the following categories of risks:

1. Collateral insufficiency risk: Bitcoin accounts for 5.6% of the circulating supply in USDT reserves, exceeding the 3.9% over-collateralization ratio. Once the price of Bitcoin drops, coupled with the depreciation of other high-risk assets such as corporate bonds and precious metals, it is likely to lead to insufficient collateral for USDT, weakening its peg to the US dollar.
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2. Transparency and governance risk: Tether has not disclosed key information such as custodial institutions and the credit status of counterparties, and the categories of reserve assets lack detailed explanations; moreover, its quarterly testing frequency is lower than the industry mainstream, and daily data is unaudited. It has also not publicly disclosed the criteria for including reserve assets and the disposal mechanisms during significant asset fluctuations. After expanding its business into non-core areas, it has not clarified whether reserve assets are isolated from other businesses.
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3. Regulatory and liquidity risk: USDT is subject to relaxed regulations in El Salvador, and reserves do not require legal asset segregation. If the issuing entity encounters financial risks, losses in other businesses may affect USDT reserves. Additionally, there is a minimum redemption amount of $100,000, along with other fees and thresholds, and it cannot be redeemed 24/7. In extreme cases, a large number of holders relying on the secondary market for liquidity could trigger a liquidity crisis. Moreover, countries such as China have explicitly defined the illegality of stablecoin-related businesses, and tightening global regulatory policies may further compress its survival space.