Continuing the previous article, I’d like to share a bit of my experience~ I was born in November 2005. I’m a Scorpio. This year, I’m 21 years old by the Western count, and 20 by the Chinese count. I’ve been playing on the internet for 8 years. I truly started quite early—when I was in primary school (6th grade), I had already been exposed to the internet: e-commerce, QQ business, Web3 NFT, and more. In 2019, I got into blockchain. After learning about Bitcoin and Ethereum, I saw the future of blockchain technology. With a “let’s give it a try” mindset, I used all the money I had accumulated from doing e-commerce and from making money through “wool”/affiliate-style circles at the time to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum. After that, in early 2020, Bitcoin and Ethereum kept drifting down all the way until a major drop on March 12, 2020, which cut my assets in half—down to about half. At that time, the money I had from doing micro-business and the money I earned from PDD e-commerce was all added to my position. I increased the spot holdings. After that, in May 2020, I went through Bitcoin’s third halving. In the second half of 2020, Bitcoin entered a bull market and kept rising. By the end of 2020, Bitcoin was up to around $25,000, and my assets had grown by about 3 times. With my then understanding and mindset, I felt I had already reached the limit of what I could mentally hold on to. So around $25,000, I sold all my spot holdings. After selling, within the next month, Bitcoin surged from $25,000 to $41,000. During the process, based on the K-line experience I had at the time, every pullback to the MA indicators/ moving averages would keep going up. That was when my journey into futures contracts began... I had a liquidation along the way, but I did it with divided positions—one step at a time. After learning position management, in early 2021, when the weekly MA support around 30,000 held on the pullback, I decisively went long. I held it for about a month. When Bitcoin broke above $50,000, in my personal view it was likely a stage top and a pullback was probable. Also, since my account had grown more than 10 times, I closed my long futures position. That was the first bucket of money in my life—about 800,000 RMB profit. I was only 16 then~
Hello! Good early morning, everyone~ I’m Jiu Ye~ I wanted to let you all know that I’m taking a break. I’ll be stopping trading indefinitely for now (I’ll resume when I’m feeling ready—it could be a few months or as long as six months).
I started with $60,000 and made a net profit of $910,000 in my live account, plus $1.2 million in net profits for copy traders—a total return of $2.11 million. My six-month return was as high as 3,700%!
Looking back on the ups and downs of trading over the past six months, it feels like ten years have gone by. In early May, I decided to put up $60,000 to short Bitcoin on Binance as a long-term trade. At the time, I expected resistance around $83,000. I eventually opened my long-term short at $82,000, and also opened a short on Ethereum, holding both positions. By early June, the market plunged as expected, breaking below the $60,000 level and reaching a low of $58,000. Based on the technical picture at the time, I was looking for $49,000—or, to make a more extreme prediction, even a Bitcoin price starting with a 3. Anyone who’s been around crypto for a while knows that, based on Bitcoin’s typical bear-market declines, once it reaches this point, it usually hits every lower target along the way. But this time was an exception. I really didn’t expect $58,000 to be the bottom. Near that low, my account had grown to around $200,000 from the long-term short. While holding the position, I also traded storage stocks every day, including SNDK, MU, and SK Hynix. In just a month or two, I’d grown my account to RMB 8.5 million. I shared the whole journey publicly and gained a lot of new followers. At that point, I decided to cash out some of my profits and put some more into copy trading.
On August 1, I decided to start copy trading because I wanted to earn the honor of being number one. I know exactly what I’m capable of—that’s why I dared to say that. But the good times didn’t last; just as I feared, things went wrong. SNDK made a sharp, one-way surge in mid-August. With all three of my accounts showing unrealized losses, I was already on the verge of losing it. In the end, I had no choice but to stop out at my final line of defense—but by then, I’d already suffered massive losses of up to 80%.
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If storage gives us a really good entry next week, I’ll be ready to open a position depending on the situation. If there’s no good entry, I’ll keep waiting. For Bitcoin, I’m waiting for 71k.
We don't know when the market will crash... but we can avoid some crashes. I stopped trading on the 28th because I had a feeling it was coming; otherwise, I wouldn't have been able to resist this rally and would have lost money too... Slow is fast, and fast is slow... We need to learn to rein in our emotions at the peak...
This drop in sndk has already reached the new low from last July. Those of you attacking me, use your brains and think: at the same price level, how likely is it that it won't go lower and will immediately V-reverse? Putting aside how many people are trying to buy the dip here, technically speaking, July's low probably won't hold. Once it breaks, bulls will be forced to stop out all at once, triggering a cascade. Isn't another 20% drop perfectly normal?
Throughout this storage-sector rally, I’ve been reminding everyone not to rush in and buy the dip. The market is once again confirming my view. So, have we hit bottom yet? My answer: it’s only just beginning! Looking at a longer time frame, there’s still plenty of room for a pullback. The key ranges are 400–600 for MU, 500–700 for SNDK, and 600–700 for SK Hynix. I’d suggest holding off until these levels are reached… Gold’s short-term rebound due to falling oil prices is perfectly normal, but we haven’t hit bottom yet. The right opportunity will take a long time to wait for…
Woke up and it’s fallen back again. Just like the analysis I posted the night before last: after the rebound, it would fall again. My view at the time was simple, including why that batch of long positions exited so early—it was all to avoid this drop. Remember the Ethereum ascending triangle pattern I analyzed for everyone a while back? Its support had already been broken while I was still holding my position. After the breakdown, it kept moving sideways at the very bottom, which means it could accelerate downward at any time and head to lower levels. For Bitcoin, in the short term, let’s see whether 75,000 can hold. At 78,000, it’s not a good time to buy the dip. Ethereum broke major trend support at 2,330. Now it’s accelerating downward; a 100-point drop isn’t much. Watch the 1,950–2,080 support zone……..
I think a major move is coming soon. Whether you’ve made money or lost money during this period, the market could get extremely volatile over the next few months. Manage your risk accordingly… My reasoning is simple, and it’s the same as what I said in my previous livestream: the rate-hiking cycle isn’t over yet. If rates aren’t raised this time, they’ll be raised next time. And once the rate-hiking cycle is over, it’s not certain that inflation will be brought under control effectively. But when rates are raised again, gold could come under renewed short-term pressure and test $3,800. A short-term bounce doesn’t mean an uptrend has begun. I think gold will keep moving sideways for a few more months, until the rate-cutting cycle begins—that’s when a real rally may start… The Nasdaq is currently near record highs. The second sell-off in the memory-chip sector a couple of days ago was sharp, and many major moving averages were broken. It may not be able to recover in the long term; at best, we may see a short-term rebound and choppy trading, before all markets enter a downward correction cycle… We can’t conclude that Bitcoin has entered a bull market just because of this rally. If it had broken through 90k and climbed above 94k at the time, the rise might have continued. But it only reached 87k before pulling back. There are too many potential fundamental risks ahead. If U.S. stocks pull back, Bitcoin will likely hit every lower level it’s due to reach. Pay particular attention to support around 75,000—that’s a level a sharp wick could very well touch…$BTC
Just to reiterate, if you need the funds in your copy-trading account, you can transfer them out. I won't be placing any trades for a while. I have a depression in my left rib cage and need some time to recover….