牧牛区块链研究院

$EVAA It's about to cascade; catch it at 0.3

$EVAA A real-world lesson on avoiding pitfalls for crypto short-selling newbies. Before shorting a coin, first ask Doubao: What is the market maker’s average holding cost? What percentage of the top 20 wallets’ holdings does it control? If it’s over 80%, don’t short it. Is it a coin controlled by a powerful market maker? If so, don’t short it. Are its institutional investors powerful? If so, don’t short it. Is it in a hot sector? If so, don’t short it. Is it controlled by a malicious market maker trying to squeeze short sellers? If so, close your short position and get out fast. You don’t have to know anything else, but before shorting a coin, you absolutely need to know these things—or you could end up in really bad shape. Thanks for reading. Please give this a like. Thank you 🙏

$BTW A lot of newbies who short ask me: “I shorted a coin with 1,000 U, and it says my profit is up 1,000%. Why hasn’t my profit and loss become 10,000 U? Why is it only 900 U?” I’m honestly speechless. You don’t even understand the rules of shorting, yet you’re still doing it. I’m saying, even if this coin drops to 0.000001 and the profit is 100,000 times, the most you can make is still just over 900 U. Your principal will never double. You don’t even understand this rule, yet you’re shorting for the long term. When you go long and make 100 times, your investment position really does increase 100 times. You don’t even understand that your investment can never multiply when you short. I’m truly speechless.

$AIN $AIN When trading coins and contracts, remember: never touch coins invested in by Binance. Avoid strong-manipulated coins handled by well-known old-guard institutions, no matter how much they rise or fall. Before a major pump, they will repeatedly shake out the market for as long as one or two months; almost 99% of people will be shaken out. They will not let you get in at a low price and ride the rise. No retail trader can withstand that kind of torment and market manipulation that drains your patience. By the time you see it surge, it has already risen 100--200%. Even if it has gone up 10x from the bottom, the most you can usually capture is only 3x. When it starts pushing, it is just one-way pumping and sideway movement with no pullback. It can even consolidate at high levels for three to five days to wear you down until you cut losses and leave. If you do not cut, a few days later it will rise another wave and keep consolidating for several more days. By the time it reaches the top, it has often risen tens or hundreds of times. Along the way, almost every long position that was right still has to take a bite and get off the train; shorts get liquidated, blown up, or cut losses and leave in huge numbers. In the end, the drop is also a slow bleed with nonstop sideways shaking and dumping. Representative examples include btw zec ain. Look at the torment and time they went through before their initial rise, during consolidation, and during the decline. This whole playbook of rising and falling takes at least two years. Almost everyone who goes long or short loses everything. Stay away from Ain

$AIN The top 100 addresses hold 99.1% of the coins. Almost all of them are in the market makers’ hands. Binance led the investment, followed by a whole host of extremely powerful, well-known market-making groups. They have a huge appetite—they’re definitely not the kind to grab a few tiny shrimp and run. If the bears don’t leave, they’ll be wiped out completely. The price could reach at least $1. And the market makers are extremely patient; they won’t let the price fall for another eight or ten days. They’re still holding all their long positions and haven’t sold any.

$BTW Many people don’t really understand futures contracts. When you short a contract, you borrow coins from the platform to pump the price. When you close your position, you’re the buyer. If you open a 1,000 U position with 10x leverage, even if the price drops to zero, you can earn at most 900 U. That’s fixed. If you go long and the price rises tenfold, you’ll earn 15,000 U. The loss from liquidation is the same, but the profit from going long can be dozens of times greater than from shorting. Suppose this coin is currently at 1.5. You borrow 1,000 U worth of the coin from the platform and open a short. The price falls to 0.1 and you close your position—in other words, you buy at 0.1. You have to spend 6,700 U of your profit to buy back the coins you borrowed from the platform when the price was 1.5 U. After all that, you’ll be left with only a small profit of a few hundred U. If you had gone long and the price rose tenfold, your profit would be 9,324 U. So catching one long is better than the profits from ten shorts. The risks are equivalent; it’s just that, relatively speaking, shorting is much more likely to win, because you can wait for the price to rise high enough before shorting. It’s very hard to get in early on a coin that’s about to start rising.

$ZEC Zec is the biggest ticking time bomb. Coins worth $5.6 billion were stolen from Binance—nearly 20,000 Bitcoin and 250,000 ETFs, plus USDT. Could this guy have had some of his USDT frozen by Tether and bought ZEC with all of it? If so, could ZEC spike straight to 20,000?

$AIN Before shorting a coin, you need to understand the people behind it. This coin was backed by Binance as lead investor, with a whole host of top-tier, long-established institutions and big names behind it. They’re extremely powerful, and the current price is near its relative low. These big players have a lot of clout: they can push the price up, then let it move sideways; push it up, then let it move sideways again, without looking back. This can easily continue for half a month. This is just a comment on its backing and does not constitute investment advice.

$BTW The market is in trouble now. The people manipulating this coin got in at $0.002, and at this price they've already made 1,000 times their money. With leverage, they've made at least 5,000 times their money. In three days, 100 million tokens with zero cost will be unlocked. At this price, even the big shots won't stop them from dumping, and nobody can band together or persuade anyone otherwise. Today, when the price was pushed up to around 1.88, some of the manipulators who were long started dumping their long positions and spot holdings, trapping several other idiots who were trying to pump the price. The manipulators are already divided internally. I bet they're slamming their fists on the table in a rage right now. That wick has thrown them completely into chaos. Hahaha

$BTW , this market maker is so shady. Look at my 10x short: within three seconds of entering, the price spiked to 1.81 and then came back down. They were clearly targeting high-leverage positions to see if they could liquidate me. So nasty! I’m using 10x leverage—unless the price goes above $10, they can forget about liquidating me.

$Q Seeing our fellow Chinese retail traders get brutally fleeced, I want to teach everyone the most useful way to assess where the market is headed. Before I get into that, let me share some data. Aside from BTC, ETH, and the top 10 coins, every indicator you can see is fabricated by market makers. It costs them very little to fake things like candlesticks, trading volume, fund inflows, and the long/short ratio—none of these can be trusted. Market makers know all the indicators inside out, and they know retail traders use them to make decisions. So none of the indicators you see are of any use. The most useful signal is large holders transferring coins to exchanges—that’s the biggest bearish signal. But they’re very discreet about it, moving coins several times to avoid being tracked. Apart from that, the best indicator for judging the market is OI. Everyone can see it, but you should only look at the 4-hour chart. The 1-hour chart is for those who trade short-term. When the price is high and OI is falling, that’s bearish (long positions are being quietly sold off, bulls are exiting, and the number of futures traders is shrinking). When the price is low and OI is rising, people are opening long positions and the number of bulls is increasing, which can push the price up. Don’t believe anything else. But even this isn’t absolute—market makers can also fake data to deceive you, though that costs them the most. Market makers are always financial fraudsters; retail traders are always playing cards against them with their hands face up. Respect the market, and make sure your actions match what you know.

$AIN Current market situation: The market makers are all going long, while retail traders are all going short. These market makers are a well-known, long-established group. They just tested the 0.168 level to see whether it was a liquidation-heavy zone for short sellers. If the test triggers a cascade of liquidations, short sellers could be forced out one after another, quickly pushing the price above 0.2. If traders chase the price higher at that point, the market makers may gradually trade sideways and distribute their holdings. If there are no buyers, they may test the short-seller liquidation zone again and try to trigger another wave of liquidations. The market makers are taking large long positions in this coin, while a great many retail traders are short. Short positions carry extremely high risk. Manage your position size carefully.

$JCT I opened a short at 0.72 with a tiny position. Lately, every time I’ve opened a short, I’ve been spooked by those sudden upward wicks and left traumatized, so I figured I’d start with a tiny position. If it got liquidated, I’d open a bigger one higher up. And then you just gently drifted down—I’m sitting here with my tiny position, so mad I could slap my thigh. Normally, if I’d gone in heavy at 20x with a stop-loss, this move would’ve meant I wouldn’t have to watch the charts every day or be constantly on edge.

$APR This coin cannot be longed, only shorted. A large batch of zero-cost coins was just unlocked the day before yesterday. Brothers who are going long, please be extremely careful.

$IRYS had been trading sideways for ages around 0.043. Last night I placed a limit order at 0.075 to short with 2x leverage, added twice the margin, and went to sleep. I figured there was only a 1% chance it would get filled last night—pretty cautious, right? I woke up to a liquidation. What the hell?

$ZEC You're the dumbest sucker in crypto. You love listening to the market makers tell you stories, and watching the news they dig up for you. You get fooled every time and lose every time, yet never learn. The big players will never let you know about any genuinely good news. Anything they do tell you is just what they want you to see—a bloodthirsty scythe coming for you. Why does the price go up when you buy expecting it to fall, and fall when you buy expecting it to rise? That's the result of the stories you love and the fake hype in the news. In crypto, the big players only pump the price after they've shaken retail traders out. At the top, they tell you stories and show you good news to trick you into buying the bags. Then they crush you and ruthlessly take your money.

$ZEC 1368 is the high for this month. Around 1300, they tricked the bears into closing their positions; next stop is 950. The ZEC story is almost over, so pump it once more. At 950, tell a few more stories, then scam them again. Keep spinning stories and scamming the fools who like believing them—bleed them dry.

$ZEC This shitcoin ZEC—the whales only need to put up $5 million to control the direction of a market worth $20 billion, keeping the price firmly pinned in place. After this, I’m never touching this coin again.

$BTC is unlikely to fall much. It will either move sideways in a prolonged range or surge on a huge bullish candle with heavy volume, breaking straight through 87000. It’s best to stay out of the market and wait until the direction is clear before entering.

$JCT : If you haven't entered, don't. If you're already in, get out fast. This could very well wipe out both longs and shorts, with an 80% wick in each direction, before continuing upward.