阿希尔

Aoying Capital opened a short position in Rocket at an average price of 140. Will you follow?

【Bearish for $BTC 】Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows are increasing: nearly $300 million on Wednesday, compared with $95 million the day before.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw cumulative outflows of about $2 billion over nine trading days, with redemptions totaling $1.44 billion over five trading days.
ETFs are a major channel for off-exchange funds to enter Bitcoin. Consecutive net outflows indicate that these funds are pulling back, which could make it harder for the price to rise. First, watch 73,260 and 72,727 below; 74,811 above may pose resistance.
#比特币 #BTCETF #BlackRock

【Bearish U.S. Treasuries】Treasury yields edge higher, putting bond prices under pressure
The U.S. Treasury market reopened after closing for Veterans Day, with yields rising as investors await new inflation and housing data.
Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions: rising yields mean lower prices for existing bonds, so this is generally bearish for Treasuries.
Higher yields could also put more pressure on U.S. stock valuations, which may be unfavorable for growth tech stocks such as $QQQ ; the dollar may receive some support as a result.
#美债 #美股 #Yield

【Bearish for $BTC 】Binance suffered a record-breaking $6.3 billion hack, and Chief Security Officer Jimmy Su said in an interview in July that fake coding tests could infect employees’ devices. The subsequent attack used exactly this kind of technique.

Why bearish: The tactic flagged in advance by the security chief still managed to breach the defenses. Users’ confidence in exchange-custodied assets could take a hit, weighing on crypto market sentiment.

$BTC Current price: 73,634. The recent high is 74,811 above; if 73,390 below gives way, the price could head toward 72,727.

#币安 #比特币 #ExchangeSecurity

Bad news everywhere—it looks like NVDA is bound to break below 157. The best time to short on a rebound is around 165.

The maximum pain zone for Bitcoin bulls is 72,500–73,000, with stronger signals from multiple converging factors. In the short term, the price may move down to test this area first. Those currently holding long positions may consider taking profit at 75,300, then look for a signal to go short.

The bearish trend for ZEC remains unchanged. Price is oscillating upward to take liquidity at 1014, with a congestion zone around 1035. As long as these two levels hold, they present an opportunity to add to short positions.
The previous low at 951 is at the edge of a cliff; a break below it could trigger a much sharper decline. Potential resistance is around 800.

CoreWeave surged 23% in a day, and the market has picked up the AI computing power story again.

It started after the third-quarter earnings report, when the CEO once again emphasized that demand for AI computing power remains strong. This month, emerging cloud computing companies like CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN have been under scrutiny as investors weigh how long the AI trade can last. This time, the message was somewhat positive.

The impact on crypto may come through risk appetite. The AI theme has lifted sentiment in tech stocks, and $BTC has recently shown a fairly strong correlation with the Nasdaq. If the Nasdaq can hold steady, that might offer some support for sentiment around crypto prices. Companies like IREN also have some ties to the crypto world, so their performance is worth watching.

That said, macro conditions haven't fully eased, and PPI data is coming soon, so sentiment could easily swing back and forth.

$BTC is now around 74,400. The upside level to watch is 76,200; a move above it would signal a clear improvement in short-term sentiment. On the downside, watch 72,700—a break below that level would raise the risk of a deeper pullback 👀

#CoreWeave #AI算力 #BTC #USStocks

Bessent was moved to a military base because of the “growing threat” from Iran. 🛡️

According to The New York Times, Bessent is leading “Operation Economic Outcast,” a role that has made him one of the most threatened targets in the Trump administration, according to Iran.

Worth noting: economic measures targeting Iran have now raised personal security concerns, and tensions in the Middle East may continue to escalate.

For markets, risk aversion may show up first in crude oil and gold. Bitcoin has recently moved fairly closely with the Nasdaq, so if risk appetite weakens, it could come under pressure too.

This news itself doesn’t directly involve crypto, so for now, watch to see whether the sentiment spreads. U.S. PPI is also due Friday at 13:30 UTC, so don’t overlook it.

#比特币 #地缘政治 #黄金 #CrudeOil

High inflation data weighed on bond markets, but $BTC barely moved, hovering around 74,000.

U.S. CPI came in higher than expected, and Treasury yields rebounded. But stocks weren't spooked: investors bought the dip in tech stocks, pushing indexes higher.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, traded in a narrow range. It neither rallied with stocks nor sank under the weight of rising yields 📊

Rising yields usually dampen risk appetite. If they keep climbing, they could put pressure on crypto prices. Meanwhile, stability in tech stocks may help support sentiment.

On the charts, $BTC moving above 76,200 would signal a strong rebound; falling below 72,700 would mean this pullback isn't over yet.

#比特币 #CPI #U.S.TreasuryYields

In the latest Jensen Huang controversy, what the market should really focus on isn’t the gossip, but Nvidia’s “succession problem.”

Reports say Nvidia’s board announced on Nov. 8 that it was launching an investigation. Huang went to the office and held meetings as usual on Monday, opening with an apology to employees before turning back to business. But insiders say morale at the company remains low.

The problem is that this $4.3 trillion company is almost entirely propped up by one person: more than 60 people report directly to him, there is no “number two,” no chairperson, and no public succession plan. Three independent directors on the board have also served for more than 25 years, and the board’s oversight has long been questioned.

Fortunately, $NVDA shares have rebounded by about 5%, suggesting that for now, the market is more focused on the business. Next week’s earnings report will be the real test: if the results are strong enough, governance concerns may fade into the background; if the investigation reveals more than just personal matters, the impact will be another story.

Nvidia is a bellwether for the AI sector, and its earnings will also affect overall risk appetite through the Nasdaq. The crypto market is worth keeping an eye on, too 👀

Note: Much of the above is based on accounts from “people familiar with the matter.” Nvidia has yet to respond, and the official investigation findings should be considered definitive.

#英伟达 #NVDA #AI #USStocks

With AI giants lining up to go public, will they drain money from tech stocks? 🤔

Anthropic begins its roadshow this week, with an offering price of $70–78 per share, aiming to raise up to about $64 billion and a valuation of up to about $1.4 trillion. It is expected to list on Nasdaq on November 19. Add SpaceX, which is already public, and the two companies would raise a combined total of about $140 billion—roughly three times the amount raised in all U.S. IPOs in 2025.

There are three reasons to worry about a “drain”: funds may sell older tech stocks to free up room; once the new giants enter indexes, passive funds will have to proportionally reduce their holdings in other constituents; and when the lockup period ends, existing shareholders may sell as well.

But the counterarguments are substantial too: JPMorgan estimates that buybacks will total about $1.5 trillion this year, far more than the value of newly issued shares. Around $8 trillion is also sitting in money market funds. Goldman Sachs likewise believes that, historically, large IPOs have not caused sustained declines.

My view: The pricing week could bring short-term pressure from sentiment and portfolio rebalancing, while the real supply pressure is more likely to come when the lockup period ends. In addition, Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and others will subscribe for about $26 billion at the IPO price. Most of the proceeds will ultimately be spent on computing power, so not all tech stocks are losers.

For crypto, $BTC has recently been closely correlated with the Nasdaq. For now, watch 74,800 and 72,700: holding above 74,800 would signal improving risk sentiment, while breaking below 72,700 would indicate mounting pressure.

These are my personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
#Anthropic #AI #美股 #BTC

Mortgage rates rebounded sharply after falling for four straight weeks.

CNBC reported at 12:38 UTC that U.S. mortgage rates had declined for four consecutive weeks, but suddenly jumped this time because inflation data came in hotter than expected.

What’s worth watching isn’t mortgage rates themselves, but the signal behind them: inflation is running hot, expectations for rate cuts may be pushed back, and interest-rate pressure could once again weigh on high-valuation tech stocks.

For crypto, a possible chain of events is: higher rate expectations, a stronger dollar, and cooler risk appetite. $BTC and U.S. tech stocks have been moving in tandem lately. If stocks come under pressure, crypto prices could also be affected 📉

$BTC : Keep an eye on two levels first. Around 74,800 is the recent high; moving above it would signal improving sentiment. 72,700 is the recent low; a break below it would indicate mounting downward pressure.

These are my personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #美股 #Macro

$ZEC Short-term: rebound failed to reach 0.382, weak structure, second test of the 1,000 level

📍 Now
After the 11-10 CPI, price plunged from around 1,200 to 993, then the daily candle closed back above 1,000. The rebound later peaked at 1,069, just shy of 1,072. Highs have since continued to fall, and price has returned to around 1,003, now testing 1,000 for the second time.

🧱 Resistance above
· 1,042 (0.236 retracement; recent rebounds have repeatedly been rejected here)
· 1,064–1,072 (last night's rebound high + 0.382 retracement)
· 1,096–1,100 (0.5 retracement + psychological level)

🧱 Support below
· 993–1,000 (wick low + psychological level)
· 976
· Around 900

🔴 Bearish scenario
Condition: A rebound to 1,042 or 1,064–1,072 is rejected, with the close back below resistance
Levels to watch: 993–1,000; if that breaks, watch 976 and 900
Invalidation: Holds above 1,100

🟢 Bullish scenario
Condition: Holds 993 and the 1-hour candle closes above 1,072
Levels to watch: 1,096–1,100, then 1,144–1,161
Invalidation: Falls back below 1,000

⚠️ Price is sitting right on 1,000 support, not at resistance. If it breaks straight below 993 without looking back, wait for a rebound before reassessing. This coin can move 10%–20% in a day, so manage your risk.

⏰ 11-13 13:30 UTC: U.S. PPI.

These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice.
#ZEC #Zcash #CryptoMarket

$ETH Short-term: A weak rebound after a stepwise decline; 2,100 and 2,120–2,150 are key levels to watch

📉 Structure
The 15-minute chart shows a stepwise decline: price first moved sideways at 2,195–2,215 for 3 days, then dropped sharply. It then consolidated at 2,120–2,150 before plunging again to 2,006 after the CPI release. The current price is around 2,070, with a V-shaped rebound and a slightly higher low.

📊 Indicators
The 15-minute RSI is around 63, and the MACD has just turned positive, indicating upward short-term momentum. However, OBV drops a step with each sharp decline and stays mostly flat during rebounds, suggesting insufficient volume behind the rebound. Open interest in futures is up 2.6% over 24 hours, and the funding rate is near 0.

🟢 Bullish scenario
Condition: The 15-minute chart holds above 2,100 with increased volume, and OBV starts rising
Targets to watch: 2,120–2,150 (the lower edge of the next step up), then 2,195
Invalidation: Falls back below 2,055

🔴 Bearish scenario
Condition: The rebound is rejected at 2,120–2,150, or a 15-minute candle closes below 2,055
Targets to watch: 2,042, then 2,000–2,006
Invalidation: Moves above 2,150 and holds

⏰ Timing
U.S. PPI will be released on 11-13 at 13:30 UTC; volatility may increase around that time.

The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#ETH #以太坊 #加密市场 #PPI

$BTC is trading at $73,804. The overall market is bearish, with hotter-than-expected CPI and Treasury yields nearing 5%. The market is waiting for Friday’s PPI.

📊 Bitcoin
$BTC is currently at $73,804, up 0.01% today and essentially flat. Overall market sentiment is bearish (1 bullish signal, 4 bearish, 4 neutral), with no key levels within 6%. For options, the max pain price is $79,000 for the 11-27 expiry and $75,000 for the 12-25 expiry.

🌐 Macro
Last night, U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month, above expectations of 0.3% (previously 0.6%); core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above expectations of 0.2%. In the 15 minutes after the release, $BTC fluctuated between -1.2% and +0.5%, and was down 1.0% an hour later. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.98%, and the 2-year yield is 4.73%. The macro environment presents a mix of tailwinds and headwinds, with 2 headwinds. Over the past 20 trading days, $BTC is down 9.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is down 2.8%; the 60-day correlation is +0.65.

📰 News
After the data was released, reports said the odds of the Fed raising rates by half a point in December had increased, and the 10-year yield returned to 5%. The White House said it would continue pursuing tariffs. Nvidia fell for a second consecutive day, down 5.5% today. In crypto news, Tom Emmer was elected House Republican whip; Project Faro, backed by Goldman Sachs, Citi, and BBVA, raised $270 million and plans to launch a U.S. dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027.

👀 What to watch next
On Friday, 11-13, at 13:30 UTC, U.S. monthly PPI (forecast: 0.4%, previous: 1.3%) and core PPI (forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.7%) will be released. The Fed’s rate decision is scheduled for 12-09 at 19:00 UTC. If inflation data remains hotter than expected, rate expectations may continue to weigh on risk assets, though historical patterns often have exceptions.

#比特币 #美联储 #CPI #PPI #CryptoMarket
The above reflects personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice.