幸运降临于我

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve will release its July interest rate decision. This meeting has been described by multiple institutions as “the most difficult to predict in recent years,” largely because after Fed Chair Waller took office, the “forward guidance” was removed, leaving the market without its traditional policy signal anchor.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that as of July 29, the probability that the market pricing will keep interest rates unchanged is 69.5%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 30.5%. A 30% probability of a rate hike, by itself, implies that the market does not view “no change” as the baseline outcome, but rather as a risk scenario that requires serious hedging. One month ago, this probability was only 10%. In just a few weeks, oil prices broke above $100 per barrel, a new round of tariff policies took effect, and continued capital spending related to AI has kept core commodity demand elevated. The combined impact of three shocks to both supply and demand has completely reversed the earlier narrative logic of falling inflation.