楚氏春秋

一涨什么牛鬼蛇神都冒出来了。晒单的kol,永赢大师，都看到牛市早早布局了😔。前几天没涨前都还集体看衰呢。当然，目前他她们也没看牛来，最多只敢喊喊熊市反弹。别玩合约，包死的。😃

On the weekly and monthly chart level, it stopped falling and turned bright in the previous previous month. “Turning bright” doesn’t mean it will surge immediately, but at least it won’t keep plunging like a waterfall anymore. Just consolidate—consolidate for now.
It is 11:00 a.m. on August 12, 2026. The final deadline for the bull market in my heart is less than a year away. If by May 2027 BTC cannot break above 150,000, and the altcoin season still hasn’t arrived, then it means my overall judgment of the bull market was wrong. Whether a bull market comes in the second half of 2027 or in 2028 has little to do with my analysis and judgment anymore—it would be a 4-year cycle-style market.
I’ve always believed this round of the bull market isn’t over, because I haven’t observed any signs that the main players are distributing. They haven’t sold off—so it shows they’re also waiting. Maybe it will be sometime toward the end of this year, or maybe the beginning of next year. This is just my personal guess. Financial markets are most taboo for forecasting, but everyone can’t help but predict a bit.
Let me share my guess: aside from a very small number of altcoin bull runs that have already finished, most altcoins are still lying low at historical lows. Altcoins have been pressed down for a full 5 years—if they explode, it will be terrifying. Pay attention to those “meme/odd coins” lately: they finish the entire bull-run move in extremely short time—just a few weeks—showing that the spring effect after several years has been stretched very tight. With even a small amount of capital, they can be explosively pumped.
I have two views on my predictions for future market action. One is that in the second half of this year, the weekly K-line will slowly recover, and the altcoins overall will rebound by two or three times, then go into sideways consolidation. In the end, within the last one or two months, there will be a sudden explosive surge—relentless, no turning back—using an extremely short period of time to finish the bull market moves of the past several years. This possibility is about 40%.
The other guess, with a higher probability, is that in the second half of this year the weekly K-line indicator recovers without changing much, and then it consolidates until the end of the year. Starting in early next year, it begins to explode upward and keeps rallying all the way to mid-year. When the bear market arrives, then there will be a huge number of people coming in to take the position during the pullback. Because 2028 is another halving year, many people will think that since the next halving is coming soon, a pullback like this—when it’s “in the right spot”—is the time to enter and hold through the 2028 big bull run, which will allow the main players to distribute more comfortably, with enough “backup buyer” willingness and funds coming in.
This is just my personal prediction: if the bull market really isn’t finished, then most likely it will follow one of these two scripts. Just keep waiting—it won’t be long. In the meantime,千万别去玩合约杠杆。#btc#ETH

Sixty grand is a super critical level, you could say it's another dividing line between bulls and bears. My stance hasn't changed though; the bull market is still very much alive. I've been stacking some blue chips over the past few days, just constantly adding to my bags—I'm losing count of how many times I've done it, I'm almost about to throw up from it. If it weren't for my absolute faith in the altcoin season, I wouldn't be making these moves.
First off, looking at the current position, if BTC stops bleeding on the weekly chart and starts to rally, then we can make a 100% call that the bull market is still ongoing. A couple of years ago, the altcoins were deliberately suppressed by the whales; they didn't let them pump because there were too many retail traders stuck in altcoins at the time. They had to cap the gains, otherwise, altcoins shouldn't have had such limited increases. And those folks who think the bear market is over and come in to catch the bottom are definitely gonna get stuck on the mountain and can't get out.
Not getting this? The core idea here is: do you think we’re at the bottom of a bull market pullback, or has the bear market truly bottomed out? This leads to two different outcomes: those who believe it’s a bull market pullback will likely sell at the top by the end of the year or next year. Meanwhile, those who think the bear market is done and are trying to catch the bottom will believe the big bull run is in 2028, which could be a massive trap. They won't realize they're getting cooked like frogs in warm water, continuously catching knives in a real bear market.
Which way it goes will depend on the broader market over the next few weeks.
Also, on another note, the recent hype around US stocks is off the charts. I advise you all to tread carefully; the historical highs in US stocks aren’t where you want to make your money. If you mess up even a little, you’ll end up being the bag holder. Even if US stocks continue to rise, the upside is very limited, and the risk-reward ratio is just too low.
Altcoins won't die; this is evident from the crypto legislation across various countries and regions over the years. This is the big trend moving forward. BTC is just a mascot, an elder in the crypto temple, but the future of blockchain relies on altcoins. The various altcoin technologies and stablecoins, especially USD stablecoins, are the US's top strategic planning priority—more critical even than BTC reserves.
Altcoins are the lifeblood of the crypto space; the constant iteration and competition among crypto projects are the foundational tech that drives blockchain into the future. #eth#btc

Just added a bit more to my position here, stacking some blue-chip coins. This is a crucial resistance level.

I believe that this year, truly valuable altcoins will far exceed their previous highs. This is also the reason why I still think we are in a bull market. Now, let's talk about the current market; at least the weekly level has confirmed a turn for the better, and we can expect an increase in the coming weeks.

The bull market is still here. I know many people will criticize me, but as one of the few who has consistently believed in the bull market, this is my last article before I retreat until the end of the bull run. BTC has been halved, most altcoins have dropped tenfold, and many people will wonder what constitutes a bear market if this doesn't. I won't argue; you will understand later. A few years from now, if you extend the timeline, you will see and it will be clear — why I say this is still a bull market. The severity of the correction this year indeed caught me off guard. However, I don't engage in short-term trading; I don't dare to gamble because I know this round is a super bull market. Once missed, there won't be such an opportunity again, so I don't dare to bet.
As for the technical aspects, regardless of the bull-bear trend lines or other indicators, all have broken down. It's a very standard bear market trend, and most people think so. Those who see a bear market can liquidate their positions; if it really is a bear market, then we haven't hit the bottom yet. I am currently down 50% of my principal but still hold on. If it really becomes a bear market, I could even wait for the next bull market to come.
But is it really a bear market? If you observe closely the major global institutions and large funds, why have they been quietly accumulating long positions over the past year? They have professionals, financial people who have immersed themselves in the market for decades; together they form the market's main force. Are they really more foolish than us retail investors? I will just say my judgment: 'Any market bear market will not arrive amidst the panic of the majority; otherwise, the main force cannot offload their goods.'
I cannot say too much, nor can I influence your decisions. Because too much interference with the fate line will affect my own fate. This article is merely laying a foundation for a future moment. Perhaps one day in the future, someone will dig this up, and I will become popular because of this article; many will see me as a belief. This is the seed I want to plant.
I have always been a staunch long-term bull in spot trading, insisting on long-term value investment. If it really turns bearish, I will admit I misjudged the big trend. But for now, I remain confident, I believe in my judgment, and I believe in the future of crypto.
Let us look forward to a beautiful life.

You should be grateful that I can still remind you about the bull and bear markets. When it's really time for the main forces to sell off at the end of a bull market, I won't remind you of the risks. I haven't taken a penny from you. Not even one person wished me a happy holiday this New Year's Day.

Let me talk about my analysis just now. BTC and ETH, as well as most altcoins, have already turned sunny last week; the decline also has its inertia. Now we only wait for the daily chart to turn sunny, and we can experience a wave of weekly-level rise. Whether it's a rebound or the start of altcoin season will depend on the weekly buying volume at that time.
In the past two weeks, whether on Binance or on neighboring exchanges, selling pressure has gradually weakened compared to buying pressure. This is a very good signal; typically, when a bear market transitions to a bull market, such signals will appear. In fact, it should have risen last week; I personally feel that the main force is intentionally suppressing the market to create panic, which has led to the decline over the past two days.
Yes, now we are just waiting for the daily chart to turn sunny. As for the smaller timeframe of the hourly chart, it has already completed a phase of decline, with selling pressure becoming weaker each time. These two days, I suspect the main force is inducing short positions.
The rise will come very soon, either today or tomorrow. Those who don't believe can bookmark this post. Once the daily signal turns sunny, I will reply in this post.
The above is all based on my personal analysis. Now, talking about altcoins, this round of altcoin bear market and Bitcoin bull market is intentionally created by the main force; there’s nothing else to say. The crypto world cannot lack an altcoin season; the blockchain world cannot rely solely on Bitcoin to sustain itself or expand; there must be an altcoin season.
Lastly: the above is just my personal analysis and is for reference only. The bull market is not over; the big altcoin bull market is on the way. I have always held this view and will never be ambiguous; if the market is not good in a few days, I won't post a bearish message 🙃.
As for topping out, it's much harder now than it was before. Most people may be eager to cut losses as soon as the altcoin bull market returns to break even, and then rush back in at the end of the bull market. Or they may hold on until the end of the bull market and still be clueless about escaping. In any case, many people won't be able to escape at that time. I probably won't remind you; doing so would disturb too many people's karma, and helping others for free without any benefit would be unfavorable for my own fortune. As for cashing out, we can talk about it based on my mood at that time; perhaps I won't look down on that little amount, but no one would refuse more, who knows.
You guys better bookmark this post because the turning point is in these two weeks. There may be fluctuations up and down for a week or two as the main force plays around again, but the general direction has already been determined. #BNB#SOL 2025.12.19 10:50

First, let’s emphasize the results: the bull market is not over. The bear market hasn’t arrived either; just hold onto your good coins. Although the quality of your coins varies, when the altcoin season comes, most will be driven up by the market. Even those altcoins that have been left behind by the main players will see some rebound. The altcoin season is on its way, and this time, the coins with high value during the altcoin season will experience terrifying growth; a hundredfold increase is just the starting point. Many large institutions are already eyeing these valuable assets. If you are holding meme coins or coins that the main players have already sold out, don’t think about the altcoin season as the time to profit.

I recommend everyone to read a book called "A Guide to Survival in Economic Recession Based on Japan's Experience." This book profoundly explains the development of Japanese society over the last thirty years after the collapse of the real estate bubble. To be honest, what we are about to face in the future is quite similar. Because the series of response policies implemented by Japan back then are almost optimal solutions. Under economic devastation: the once widespread ideology of pursuing higher education and certifications rapidly disappeared, educational qualifications devalued, and the number of people taking civil service exams surged, with many unemployed entering professions like express delivery and taxi driving. Urban populations flowed back to rural areas, and many chose to work abroad. All of this happened in the 1990s; doesn't it feel exactly like the current situation in our country? One crisis after another, economic pressure has forced Japan to repeatedly lower interest rates and print money, leading to increasing currency devaluation.
Now, however, there is a slight difference: it is a global economic recession. Coupled with the potential for AI and robots to take away a large number of jobs, our situation may become worse. But we have different national conditions than Japan: we have aircraft carriers and cannons, and those who understand know what may erupt. Musk and others at the upper echelons are very clear about this.
Let’s talk about the impact on the cryptocurrency market: during a recession, a large amount of money will inevitably be printed to alleviate various pressures, and the currency will continue to depreciate. Coupled with possible factors for a third world war. Thus, the smart money globally will inevitably flow toward gold or cryptocurrencies. I remain optimistic about the future of the cryptocurrency market; this is not a bear market, but the starting point of a super bull market. Please stay tuned...

Ethereum closed the weekly line today, and Bitcoin has weakened. Ethereum has bottomed out a lot. If it can maintain a healthy state and close the weekly line today, the probability of a turnaround starting this week is very high. Let's wait until the weekly line is closed today. Anyway, altcoins have hit the bottom.

Yes, ok has indeed acted very compliant in this regard. Just feels like it got tricked by Binance this time 😂

I don't know, but this is an important support level, and the main force usually breaks through it. Currently, I don't see any signs of a turnaround for Bitcoin, but I still believe in the altcoin season; the bull run isn't over.

Insert the pin onto the bull-bear trend line I drew. How many people are still alive😃.

With such a large market value, decentralized markets have basically been divided up by uni, cake, crw, ray.1nch, and sushi. Now it's too late to share the cex cake. Whether it's uni or cake, regardless of trading smoothness, pool size, or popularity, the cex market has already been completely divided. Unless they come up with some revolutionary disruptive technology, relying solely on deflation... I’m afraid that’s far from enough.

The main force hasn't sold yet, what's the point of being bearish? It's asking for trouble.

You have misestimated one thing: the stablecoin payment sector has been growing in recent years and is highly likely to exceed Bitcoin's market value in the future, because stablecoins are linked to the external traditional financial market, not just competing within the cryptocurrency space. Therefore, it doesn't need to monopolize this sector to reach a market value of 50 billion USD; it only needs to account for one-fourth or one-fifth, and by 2030 it can easily reach a market value of 100 billion USD. The scale and potential of the stablecoin payment sector are enormous.

My little partners are all very anxious @BTC@ETH