楚氏春秋

On the square, most people feel like there’s going to be a pullback, but when I look at the BTC and ETH daily sell orders, there doesn’t seem to be much—very scarce. Personally, I think the main uptrend wave is about to start, and there won’t be a daily-level pullback. The only possible pullback would be if it’s pumped up in one go—something could happen within these next couple of days. #btc#eth

Why do we say this is a “bull tail” and not an early “bull phase”? A deep-dive analysis
All previous posts have been deleted. The gist is that the market has kept “going bullish” up to now without changing. Long-time followers should already know. This post will point out a few key factors as evidence for how to judge a “bull tail”行情.

Please look at Figure 1. In the 2022 bear market, it was a standard big bear cycle. A standard bear market will definitely have a prolonged low-level consolidation zone—there may be heavy volume, or there may not. If there isn’t heavy volume, then the main force can suppress the volume so retail investors can’t see it clearly, using time to create space. If there is heavy volume, then it’s even simpler: it proves the main force doesn’t have enough time and can only absorb liquidity aggressively. So at least one of these two conditions must appear at the bottom of the bear market: long grinding at the base, or heavy volume. Only then does the main force have the space and time to pick up positions.

Now look at Figure 2, which is this year’s August. In an extremely short period, price rapidly surged upward, and yet there was no heavy volume. Where would the main force be able to absorb all that? There’s only one possibility: the earlier main force never actually distributed to begin with, so now—even with a small amount of volume—it can still quickly push the price up.

Finally, in this sudden surge, most people missed the move—this is a required prerequisite for the start of a standard “big bull” breakout, and it’s also a fast season for alternative coins. If you think the bear market isn’t over yet and you’re still waiting for a second dip and a pullback, you likely won’t get it. But if you think this is “early bull,” then you’ll probably be buried completely next year. This is a big-picture trend judgment. If you get the bull-bear trend wrong, it’s terrifying. This is also the reason why most people lose money in the crypto market.

Any高手 (experts) have any insights? Feel free to discuss.