币圈张盟主

Having gone through seven bullish-and-bear cycles, I’ve seen the roaring crowds of a bull market and endured the long, bleak night of a bear market.
I’ve witnessed the myth of overnight wealth, and I’ve also seen countless accounts wiped out.
What’s most valuable in the crypto market isn’t how much you can make, but how long you can stay alive.
I don’t worship the myth of getting rich overnight, and I’m never carried away by emotions—position sizing and stop-losses always come first.
The market is never short of opportunities; once your principal is gone, you’ve lost everything.
Only for personal market reflections!$BTC

The three most important things in the crypto market: first, you need to understand how to analyze market trends; second, you need to consider the risks of entering a trade; third, use small position sizing, strictly take-profit and stop-loss, and if your direction is wrong, stop loss immediately—don’t hold onto a losing position. Because no matter how large our capital is, it’s still not bigger than the market. Positive people see an opportunity in every adversity, while negative people see some kind of adversity in every opportunity. When facing a highly volatile market, we must seize every moment; by capturing opportunities, we effectively secure tomorrow!

8.26｜BTC/Gold/Oil—Market News Interpretation

BTC (Bitcoin)

I believe the overall trend remains completely bullish; it’s just a high-level consolidation and shakeout.
ETF institutional fund inflows are continuing to step in and provide support, and the long-term foundation is very solid.
However, in the short term the market is clearly overbought, leverage is stacked too high, and everyone is already looking to go long—this is precisely when a shakeout is most likely.
This week’s Jackson Hole speech is the biggest variable. Until it’s confirmed, I only look for range-bound repair, not a continuous surge.

Gold

My view: The bulls are strong, but you should guard against a short-term pullback.
Central banks keep accumulating gold, and the safe-haven logic has been consistently supportive—breaking to new highs is in line with the trend.
But now at these elevated levels, it’s seriously overbought, and retail investors chasing longs are in a frenzy.
My approach: I’m bullish on the trend, but I don’t chase price. At high levels, expect a fast pullback and shakeout at any time; wait for the dip—it’s safer.

Crude Oil

I think the short-term picture has fully weakened for now, and the bullish logic has temporarily ended.
The easing between Iran and the U.S. and the direct de-escalation of geopolitical risk mean that all the earlier “upside premium” has been fully unwound.
Right now it’s a weak, trend-following market. Any rebounds are likely to be false moves to lure longs. Prefer going short on rallies and don’t try to bottom-pick. There’s no short-term reversal signal.

Overall Summary

All three assets are currently waiting for the Fed’s speech to determine the direction.

• More dovish: BTC and gold continue to push higher; oil sees only a modest correction/recovery.

• More hawkish: The whole complex pulls back together, with a round of profit-taking and a selloff from high levels.

My current thinking: Follow the trend but don’t chase; don’t go heavy at high levels. Wait for the news to land, then follow the trend to trade the certainty.

$BTC $XAU #BTC未来走势预测

2026 Zhang Mengzhu Gold Analysis

At present, the daily line closes as an upward big doji. In an uptrend, dojis are only correction signals, never a top. A trend reversal requires a process.
After the morning rebound, the current position leaves both buyers and sellers in a difficult spot, making second-entry timing unclear. Core idea: observe the strength or weakness during the Europe session, then decide the direction and trade in the US session.

Key Turning Points

Resistance above: 4674; Support below: 4630
If it breaks below 4630, the next downside targets are 4606 and 4595. If it breaks above 4674, it will continue the push upward.

Trading Plan

1. The overall trend remains mildly bullish, but it’s not extremely strong in one direction—don’t chase long positions aggressively;

2. In the afternoon Europe session, don’t open longs blindly; wait for the hourly chart pattern to confirm;

3. If the Europe session holds above 4674, then in the US session follow the trend to look for new highs;

4. If the Europe session effectively breaks below 4630, avoid chasing longs and wait for a pullback to buy on dips;

5. Throughout the entire process, only monitor the key turning points—don’t make frequent short-term trades.

$XAU #美伊据报达成停火共识

Daily Must-Learn Candlestick Knowledge
A candlestick pattern made up of two opposing T-shaped candles: one bullish and one bearish. The rising and falling forms of this pattern resemble how clothes are kneaded and rubbed—so it is named the Kneading Line. It is the result of a two-day contest between bulls and bears. The two candles close on the same closing price (generally) in succession; usually there is a force controlling the market. Such strength likely isn’t from a retail trader—at the very least, there is substantial capital behind it—so it should be given attention, especially near trend support areas.

There are two possible situations, as shown in the figure (in fact, this kind of candlestick combination can be synthesized into a single candlestick, similar to a turning-point signal like a cross/star).

$BTC $ETH

Aug 26: Zhang Mengzhu’s Encrypted Cryptocurrency Trading Plan — Worth Ten Thousand in Value!!

US spot BTC ETFs have seen consecutive days of net inflows. In one week, inflows are close to $1.92B. Over the past 6 days combined, $2.26B has been absorbed. Institutional buying is the core driver behind this recent push higher—pulling a large amount of spot from exchanges, reducing sell pressure.

BTC surged and then pulled back, ranging between 78,400–79,200. I think it won’t move in a single direction before the speech; expect mainly a range-bound washout.

ETH follows BTC with no independent setup, and volatility is higher. There’s stronger resistance around 2,530.

Key Levels
BTC: Resistance 79,500–80,200; Support 77,000–77,300; Defense 76,200
ETH: Resistance 2,520–2,560; Support 2,390–2,420; Defense 2,330

Trading Plan
• BTC: Go long in two batches at 77,000–77,500
Take Profit: 79,800 → 82,000–83,000 | Stop Loss: 76,200
If price doesn’t reach these levels, give up—don’t chase the current price.

• ETH: Go long in two batches at 2,390–2,420
Take Profit: 2,520 → 2,600–2,630 | Stop Loss: 2,330
Keep the ETH position smaller than BTC.

After taking profit from a run-up, wait for the Jackson Hole news. Only buy the dip, don’t chase highs. Every entry must include a stop loss, and position sizing must be tightly controlled.

Yesterday’s strategy review: Bought at 78,600 and took profit by closing at 79,300, securing 5,900U—following through means you’re already winning!

Today, I’ve locked in a 30% profit. No intention to grab attention with theatrics. The market will answer—everything is backed by strength, proven by results.

$BTC $ETH #BTC走势分析

Big flatbread 78600+ more, 79300 square meters taken down for 5900U
While you’re still questioning, while he’s still hesitating
As a friend, the profit is already in hand
Follow the right people and do the right things!

$BTC #BTC未来走势预测

BTC current price go long directly！

The uptrend for the bulls hasn’t changed; the pullback is just a shakeout. At the current price 78435, go long directly！

$BTC

Fifteen Years of Trading Experience Sharing—Act Carefully and Cherish It!

Bill Gates said, “If you can’t make money, it’s not because there’s no money to be made, but because you’re not in the circle where money is made.” We don’t lack opportunities; what we lack is the willingness to understand them, the vision to judge them, the courage to try them, the perseverance to stick with them, and the belief in ourselves.

1. Control your desires. Don’t just listen to other people’s stories at random. A good mindset is more important than everything.

2. Trade with the trend. Only trade the right market conditions and the correct swings. If you don’t have a 70% level of confidence, it’s better not to trade.

3. Manage your position size reasonably. Only when you manage position sizing properly do you have a chance at stable profits. Otherwise, even if your account has had profitable periods, in the end you may still end in total failure.

4. No matter what, set a stop loss when entering a trade. Not setting a stop loss means that each trade you make could potentially lead to your account being wiped out.

$BTC $ETH

Daily Essential Candlestick Knowledge
Two Yangs夹一 Yin
Two Yangs夹一 Yin refers to a three-day candlestick pattern where the left and right candles are bullish (yang) candles, and the middle candle is bearish (yin). The central axes of the three candlesticks are generally positioned at roughly the same horizontal level. The bodies of the two bullish candles are usually longer than the body of the bearish candle, as shown in the figure.

Two Yangs夹一 Yin is a common upward pattern, also known as “Bullish Cannon Fire.” It indicates that during a price consolidation/advancing phase, the stock price continues to face pressure from sellers, but after a brief pause it will still continue rising. If this pattern appears in a downtrend, it suggests the price may temporarily stop falling or possibly form a bottom and rebound. Traders who are skilled at short-term operations can take advantage of breakouts to the upside or pullbacks to make short-term profits, but the prerequisite is not to lose their shares.

$BTC $ETH

The essence of trading is to wait.
Use 80% of your time to wait, and 20% of your time to trade.
Trading should be done to achieve mastery.
No less than the birth of a general and a commander.
And a general and commander would not give orders to march on a whim.
In trading, if you can’t control yourself, then opening a position is no different from firing without seeing the enemy.
Not only does it waste bullets, it also puts yourself in danger!

$BTC $ETH #BTC走势分析

Learn a little K-line candlestick chart knowledge every day
Three Crows Pattern
The Three Crows Pattern is very rare, yet it is an extremely important reversal pattern. The Three Crows Pattern consists of three candlesticks; the middle candlestick is a doji (a doji candlestick that gaps up or gaps down).

$BTC $ETH #BTC未来走势预测

anDisk stock price fell below the lower Bollinger Band at the Nasdaq close. On the daily chart, the price also broke below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. There is a clear gap around $1,300; breaking below this level would be very unfavorable. Currently, it is up 2.3% pre-market, trading at $1,527. But only if it breaks above $1,610 will the trend turn bullish.

I think there is still room for downside—maybe it could reach around $1,300!

$SNDKB $BTC $ETH #SNDKB高位换手没跌透

Life’s Golden 15 Years!

From ages 30 to 45, you must learn to control your desires, enjoy solitude, work hard to make money, and never waste your precious time on people you can’t control. These invaluable 15 years will determine the quality of life for the rest of your life—and even affect your next generation!

Talking about money sounds kind of cliché, but most of our unhappiness is related to it. After all, money can heal all insecurities, and being busy can cure all pretentiousness!

If you’re in this golden stage right now, you must instantly wake up—set goals, take action, and stick with it. The future you will surely thank the version of you who’s working hard right now.

#BTC触及80000美元 #油价维持跌势 $BTC $ETH

Four Profitable Good Habits

Stay in cash and wait. If you can’t understand the market conditions, staying in cash is the best move. If you trade gold, you should be good at waiting and good at staying in cash.

Add positions when in profit. If your first entry is profitable, it means the market is moving in line with your trading logic. Then adding to your position is a natural next step.

Independent thinking. The rule that tells us only a few people make money shows that if you want to succeed, your thinking must be different from that of ordinary people.

Know how to rest. Don’t immerse yourself in the market 24/7, 365 days a year. Step away from the market for a period, learn, and travel. Use the perspective of an outsider to observe the market—you may reach a more objective judgment.

$BTC $ETH

Eliminate hindsight trading—provide market analysis and a trading plan in advance!

I believe the short-term bulls still have the upper hand, but we’ve already reached a high-pressure zone. The 80,000 level overhead has heavy sell pressure.
Part of this round of rally comes from ongoing ETF inflows, but another part is liquidation-driven squeeze from short positions being forced out—not from a continuous stream of fresh spot buying.
Market sentiment has moved into the “greed” range. Derivatives leverage positions are being stacked up, and Kalshi’s prediction still leaves a 25% probability: by year-end, first drop to 50,000 USD before pushing up to 100,000, indicating that large capital has not fully ruled out the tail risk of a deep correction.
Before the remarks land, the main force will most likely repeatedly “stab” the price with upward and downward sweeps to trigger stop-losses—don’t fantasize about a direct one-way explosive rally. Going long on pullbacks is the safest approach.

8/25 BTC: Enter longs in two steps at 76,500–77,100; targets 79,000–81,000!
8/25 CTH: Go long in the 2,390–2,430 range; targets 2,500–2,600!
$BTC $ETH

Kalshi prediction market latest data: Market traders assign BTC a 25% probability of touching $500k before first dipping to $50k.
Many people misunderstand this: it doesn’t mean there’s a guaranteed one-in-four chance the price will drop to $50k. Instead, it refers to the probability of triggering the $50k bet by comparing two key price levels before the end of the year.
In the earlier bearish phase in June, this probability peaked at 76%, and it has fallen sharply alongside the current rebound.
This suggests that large capital and the overall direction remain bullish, but sufficient risk pricing has also been allowed for a black-swan pullback.
Now that price is at elevated levels, don’t ignore tail risks—make sure your position sizing and stop-losses are in place.

$BTC

Truly successful investors are not those figures who stay busy through every fluctuation, but those who can remain calm and wait amid the market’s noise. You’ve already taken the most important step—recognizing the dangers of frequent trading. Now, just imprint this discipline into your daily routine, so that every click to place an order goes through a double filter: it both fits your rules and remains within your daily limit. Keep going, and you’ll find you start enjoying trading instead of being consumed by it. I look forward to hearing how you feel after executing it!

$BTC $ETH #BTC走势分析

For the big pie, my next trading plan:

1、I think 75500-75600 is an important short-term support. I won’t chase the price up; I’ll only buy on dips!
2、Based on the contract data and the price/volume on the chart, there’s a high probability of downward wick/sharp probing.

I will add to longs in batches in the 76500-75500 range, with a stop-loss at 73800, and targets at 79000-82300!
$BTC