操舟若神-加密精算师

Going long on MSTR—Bitcoin is ready to make a move. Bullish on a strong rebound in U.S. stocks this Monday!

I. Fundamental analysis:
The negative index news is behind us. The next decision is due on November 11, and removal is not certain—it’s a low-probability event.
Details:
On October 18, Strategy founder Michael Saylor said on a Bloomberg program that MSCI’s proposal to exclude companies such as Strategy from global stock indexes was disappointing. He argued that treating oil, natural gas, land, and machinery as capital while refusing to recognize Bitcoin as capital amounts to a biased value judgment and acting like an unregistered investment adviser. The removal would have a limited impact on Strategy, but he hopes MSCI will reconsider.
Saylor stressed that Strategy is an operating company whose product is “digital credit,” making it an operating financial company like a bank or insurer—not a holding company. MSCI has already finalized a rule to exclude “non-operating companies” from its global investable market indexes, which is set to take effect after the market close on November 30. The final list of affected companies will be announced on November 11.

II. Technical analysis:
EMA has moved above the 200-day line.
The bottom has stabilized on the 4-hour chart; start with an initial core position.
If the price breaks above the Bollinger Bands’ middle line, keep adding to the position!

#btc #BTC走势分析

一 基本面分析：老马奶了


10 月 18 日，马斯克在 X 平台发文表示，Optimus（人形机器人）和 Cybercab（无人驾驶出租车）未来将构成特斯拉绝大部分价值。

他认为，能够在经济上扩展至极大规模的领域只有超级智能、机器人、太阳能和太空运输。而一旦拥有超级智能和机器人，其他领域的发展也会随之而来。

谈及 Roadster，马斯克表示：「但 Roadster 非常酷，所以我们还是会做。」

二 技术面：
日线级别超跌，rsi 低于 30，kdj -136
布林带触及日线级别下轨
4 小时级别 2 次探底，超卖回升

三 操作策略
轻仓吃播反弹行情

Hold on to your Bitcoin
On October 18, Strategy founder Michael Saylor once again posted information related to the Bitcoin Tracker. He also said, “We found room for more orange.”

Based on past patterns, orange dots represent Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases, which may hint that the company is adding to its BTC holdings. Strategy usually discloses changes to its Bitcoin holdings the day after posting related information.

On October 12, Strategy disclosed that it had added 250 BTC the previous week, while its U.S. dollar reserves fell to $5.52 billion (down $193 million). Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings rose to 848,250 BTC.

Hold on to your value coins. On October 18, according to monitoring by OnchainLens, Hyperliquid bought and burned 11,340 HYPE tokens at an average price of $78.55 over the past 24 hours. The cumulative burn reached 49.63 million tokens, worth approximately $3.9 billion, accounting for 4.96% of the maximum total supply of 1 billion tokens.

No hawkish signals—that means a dovish stance. The rebound continues, with no rate hike in October. The U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields are also falling. Steady

#BTC走势分析


Fed Chair Warsh: ‘I won’t prejudge future rate decisions,’ offers no indication on whether rates will rise again in October

Jinshi Data, October 16 — Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said Friday that he would not prejudge interest rate decisions and gave no indication whether the Fed would raise rates again at its October 27–28 monetary policy meeting or, as markets expect, leave short-term rates unchanged. Speaking at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Warsh said that when the Fed raised rates in September, it had “made it very clear that we will achieve price stability, and withdrawn some degree of monetary policy accommodation.” He stressed: “I won’t prejudge the decision at any meeting. I don’t think it’s appropriate to signal in advance what actions I might take at the remaining meetings this year.”

Buying the dip in quality assets
On October 15, according to monitoring by Onchain Lens, three newly created wallets are suspected to belong to the same whale, with a combined stake of 1.255 million HYPE, worth approximately $100.43 million.
Address one staked 460,180 HYPE (approximately $36.84 million), address two staked 449,900 HYPE (approximately $35.98 million), and address three staked 345,250 HYPE (approximately $27.62 million).

Three doves are flying in the sky. With the midterm elections in mind, a rate hike this month is unlikely.
Fed's Goolsbee: September inflation was disappointing, but more data are needed before raising rates;
Bowman: Inflation remains above our target. At present, I don't think the Fed needs to rush to further adjust interest rates;
Daly: Further rate hikes may be necessary, but they are not imminent.
The probability of a rate hike in October is low; steady
#CPI数据 #btc走勢 $BTC $BNB $ETH

Gold rises, dollar index and Treasury yields fall

The negative news is now out; prices have stabilized and rebounded. Continue adding to your position.

cpi 数据，预期 2.5%，预测市场 2.4%，低于预期

环比 0.2%

晚上利好数据的概率高，坐稳扶好
利空就做对冲，用对冲做空盈利，加仓多单
#CPI数据

Stabilizing and rebounding—buy in. BNB has the burn-related tailwind; BTC is waiting for CPI to come out. #BTC走势分析

#MATIC The 4-hour trend looks healthy. Hold steady and take profits in batches as the price rises.

Polygon Foundation CEO Sandeep Nailwal tweeted that an additional 22 million $POL (about 0.2% of the supply) have been added to the next phase of the burn plan. He also said the team has not yet fully disclosed how Polygon OMS will affect $POL, and that more details will be announced soon.

Burning continues, staking runs through December, staking APY has risen to 7.7%, and staking figures keep climbing for $POL.
#Polygon

On October 9, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States is engaged in productive negotiations with Iran and will not launch any attacks on Iran before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Trump also said that Iran’s economy and military are both in very poor condition, and that the blockade of Iran will remain fully in effect. Last night, 22 million barrels of oil were transported through the Strait of Hormuz, none of it related to Iran. He also stressed that Iran will not have nuclear weapons.

Bargain-bottom feeding meat

Aave founder Stani Kulechov said the project is considering introducing an AAVE token burn mechanism in Aavenomics 3. According to ChainCatcher, Aavenomics 3 is Aave’s new tokenomics upgrade plan, which has already implemented measures such as AAVE buybacks supported by protocol revenues.
$AAVE

According to Al Jazeera: U.S. officials said the United States continues to engage in active discussions with Iran through intermediaries; if the nuclear issue is not resolved, no agreement will be reached. Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and unfreeze its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the Iran nuclear issue.

Geopolitical de-escalation
#BTC走势分析

September 25 news, according to Lookonchain monitoring, the stolen funds from Bitget mainly include: 102.93 million XRP (about $157.48 million), 31,890 ETH (about $85.75 million), 3,475 million USDT, 21.05 million USDC, 1,967 USD₮0, 3,000 XAUt (about $12.82 million), 12,719 BNB (about $9.88 million), 821,012 AVAX (about $8.38 million), and 20.59 million TRX (about $7.07 million).

Today’s Market Summary:
Hold steady, take profit in batches when price rises, prepare to exit. Before the end-of-month PCE data release, reduce exposure to manage risk.
#btc #BTC走势分析

people Daily line stays stable, the election narrative continues, ETH is strong, double flywheel, reduce and take profit 1-2 weeks before the mid-term election

people In the past, the earliest was 1eth equals 1 million
$PEOPLE #PEOPLE

Make a rebound trend until Sunday. CPI meets expectations, and the downside has played out.

Went for a rebound trade and already took partial profit. Set a break-even stop-loss and protection stop!
Tomorrow night, pay attention to the Non-Farm Payrolls data—be cautious. Sell high and buy low, trim positions, and observe.
#BTC走势分析

3 scenarios
Much lower than expected: reduce the September rate-hike expectations by 9, and continue holding.
Higher than expected and in line with expectations: strengthen September rate-hike expectations. As a downside signal, close shorts to hedge;