合约侠客

#polymarketoddsiranblockadeendfallto23% Polymarket traders just slashed the odds of the Iran blockade ending anytime soon — near-term "Yes" buckets have fallen to ~23% and below, with the August 15 bucket effectively dead at ~1%. The pattern of this market all along: headline-driven spikes that fade. In early August, the Aug 7 sub-market soared to 61.8% on rumors — days later it resolved NO. The Aug 8 bucket crashed 49.5% → 13% in an hour. Now the crowd's answer is simple: not now, later. Dec 31 remains the top consensus at ~78-84%, inside a market with a cumulative pool of ~$880M. The market is saying the blockade outlasts the summer. 📉 $BTC $XAU $BZ #BerkshireAddsToDeltaAndAlphabetHoldings #UkraineSaysOdesaBlackSeaPortsEffectivelyClosed #OilEdgesHigher #SP500SlipsFridayThirdStraightWeeklyGain