Payne Research

I used to not play on forums/posts. The real thing that changed me was Sun Yuzhen.

Through Sun Yuzhen, I first truly realized that: content creation itself is a huge kind of leverage.

Even without capital, without connections, and without resources, a person can still accumulate attention, trust, and influence by continuously putting out their viewpoints.

Of course, this path is definitely fraught with difficulties before success. Without traffic, without followers, without recognition—often for a long time—you’ll wonder what you’re really坚持坚持 on.

But once you’ve built your own content assets, the leverage starts to show.

In the past, an individual could only sell their own time, whereas content creation allows your thoughts, judgment, and experience to be seen by tens of thousands at the same time.

This is also why I’m now willing to seriously post.

Not to chase trends, and not to become some so-called internet celebrity.

I just increasingly believe that:

Besides capital, the leverage that ordinary people can truly accumulate over the long term also includes their own cognition, expression skills, and influence.
$BTC

英国#白崖 如果成为中国的景区

Today I sell things online,

And then I get bargained down for all kinds of reasons.

Big Brother Long was thinking: why is it so easy for most ordinary people to lose money in investing?

Bargaining is one very important factor.

The psychological essence of bargaining is greed.

So when you combine that with the stock market’s K-line charts:

Even though the trend has already formed, many people still wait for a pullback. They wait and wait until the price keeps going up higher and higher. When they can’t stand it anymore, they chase—only to end up trapped at the top of the mountain.$BTC

Someone asked me: how do I reduce my desire to spend?
All in
Put all your savings—All in—into stocks.
Every month, keep topping up with your salary.
After a while, you even can't bear to spend money on dates with your girlfriend.
Before buying a cup of milk tea, you have to look at the market first.
From then on, everything you look at feels expensive.$BTC

Human growth goes through three stages.

The first stage is the camel.

You carry everything that others have placed on you: your parents’ expectations, society’s rules, your education, your job, your wealth, and the “correct life” that other people have told you to believe in.

The second stage is the lion.

You begin to resist.

You start to question the things you once trusted completely, and you no longer want to live on the path designed by others.

But I think many people spend their whole lives stuck in the lion stage.

They keep resisting, yet they never truly build something of their own.

What’s truly difficult is the third stage:

The child.

A child isn’t childish; it’s the ability to begin again.

When you’re no longer fixated on proving yourself, and you’re no longer fixated on resisting someone—when you start to create your own value and choose your own life.

Growth is:

First carry the world, then resist the world, and finally create your own world.$BTC

Oh my god, suddenly gained several more followers—thanks again, @Ruby抄底被抄家

Bro Long is touched and is sharing his recent wealth secrets.

$UBER

Bro Long started building his position at 67.17.

Trading suggestion: If you want to become a long-term value investor like Bro Long.

Watch the Uber around 67–70 (Bro Long plans to add to his position at this level).

DCA buy recommended!!

Use your salary to build a business until your business can bring you financial freedom.

Iran and Oman have essentially reached agreement on the new navigational coordinates for the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important developments in recent months. But Iran has made it very clear: bilateral consensus ≠ reopening of the strait.
The real dividing line is whether:
1. Commercial vessels begin to use the new route steadily
2. Insurance companies are willing to underwrite
3. Relevant U.S. conditions are met
The geopolitical premium in oil prices, freight rates, global inflation expectations, and risk appetite will follow the actual level of navigation, not the news headlines.
For BTC and crypto: geopolitical easing can improve risk sentiment, but don’t treat it as an automatic buy signal. Spot demand + holding key support levels is more convincing than any spike driven by breaking news.
Focus on confirmation, not chasing headlines.
$BTC

History is always surprisingly similar.
I searched through the so-called mythic genius traders.
In 2006, Brian Hunt, 32, a master’s in mathematics, ranked 29th globally in *The Trader Monthly*.
In the first four months, he made $2 billion for his firm.
By September, after reaching $3 billion, just half a month later he lost $6.6 billion—his fund went bankrupt.
In 2021, Bill Hwang, a disciple of Tiger Management, with annualized returns over 40%, known as “the Lord’s Hand.”
Within a year, his personal fortune grew from $1.5 billion to $36 billion.
5x leverage. Two days later, it was zero.
In 2022, SBF, 30, an MIT graduate, worth $26 billion. The media called him “the next Buffett.”
Only two months after FTX launched, he had engineers write a single line of code so his fund could withdraw unlimitedly from clients’ accounts.
But the AI company he invested in—if he had held onto it, it would be worth $80 billion today.
Whereas the FTX he risked everything to save, at its peak valuation it was only $32 billion. In the end, he was sentenced and sent to prison.
In 2026, Leopold, 19, graduated first in his class from Columbia, left OpenAI to found a company.
The fund grew from $225 million to $45 billion—200x growth in eighteen months, with a 439% return in the first half. 4x leverage.
Then three investment banks simultaneously demanded margin calls; the ledgers were sold to Citadel within the morning.
SBF’s defense in court was: I didn’t do it on purpose—risk control wasn’t done well enough, and the market volatility was too high.
Do you think you’re the exception?

When most people in the market were still focused on storage toward the end of June, I started adding to $AAPL and bought back $MSFT after the pullback for the entire year.
Compared with the storage sector, which had already risen quite a bit at the time, I believe Microsoft offers better value and the market’s pricing is clearly too low.
This round of returns isn’t because my forecasting ability is so strong, but because of discipline.
I’ve always believed that, in essence, storage is still a cyclical stock—it's just that AI has amplified this cycle.
The economic cycle won’t disappear; it will only be stretched and strengthened.
Now, I still believe:
Microsoft is worth allocating to below $400;
Apple below $300 is also worth keeping on your radar.
There’s no need to limit your outlook to storage and optical modules.
Genuine long-term investment opportunities often come when excellent companies are undervalued.
Also, in semiconductors, I’ve always been fairly bullish on $TSM

$BTC
Kevin Warsh :
* Inflation is still not at the 2% target.
* No rush to cut interest rates.
* If future data is unfavorable, further rate hikes are not ruled out.
* There is still a possibility of a rate hike at the September meeting.

$SNDK When does a person truly start to grow? Not when they’ve made their first bucket of money, and not when they’ve gained someone else’s approval—but when they become addicted to growth itself.
When you realize that you are stronger today than you were yesterday; when you solve problems and create value through your own abilities and receive genuine feedback, you’ll begin to look forward to the next breakthrough.
From that moment on, growth is no longer something you force yourself to keep doing—it becomes an instinct.
Wealth is only the result of creating value, not the endpoint. A truly growing person, even after achieving financial freedom, won’t choose to lie flat. Because what drives them is no longer just making money, but constantly pushing beyond their own limits.
So, for young people, the most important thing isn’t rushing to earn how much money—but cultivating a desire for growth. As your abilities keep improving, your value naturally increases; as your value keeps increasing, wealth will follow. And the greatest meaning of wealth isn’t to make you stop striving—it’s to give you a bigger stage to create even greater value.
The truly impressive aren’t the ones who choose to lie flat after achieving financial freedom. They are the ones who, even after reaching financial freedom, continue to create value. Because money is just a result—growth is the driving force.

Previously the market had been hyping AI development, and people thought storage would always be scarce.

But the winds have started to change.

Samsung and SK hynix continue to expand production, and CXMT has also gone public. Although they can’t make HBM for now, DRAM will catch up sooner or later. Once competition in the mid- and low-end market intensifies, the three major original manufacturers can free up more capacity to focus on high-end products.

Downstream NAND starts to cut prices—this is how the market works.

The story is what’s valuable; the facts are not.

When everyone believes storage will remain scarce forever, the stock price has already risen in advance. And as expansion news comes one after another, capital starts trading the expectation of “storage won’t be that scarce after all.”

When one day the market starts telling the “storage is scarce” story again, it won’t be too late to come back.
$SNDK

The trade of the past few hundred years was conducted between people. In the future, another kind of economic relationship may emerge: machines will start earning, spending, and making decisions for people.

What truly changes isn’t just production efficiency, but a redefinition of “who can participate in economic activity.”

When agents have wallets, capital, and payment capabilities, they are no longer merely tools; they will gradually become a new role within the economic system.

Just as the internet changed the relationship between people and information, and mobile internet changed the relationship between people and services, AI may be changing the relationship between people and the flow of wealth.
$BTC

Chinese people like to say, “At thirty, one should be established,” but I think that isn’t all that important.

Because many people are born with different starting points in life.

Some are born in first-tier cities, with parents who have resources, education, and connections; others are born in remote areas, in ordinary families, and even from a young age have to hustle just to make ends meet.

When someone is thirty and still hasn’t found a foothold, hasn’t put down roots, and doesn’t have social standing, the reason is often not thirty itself, but everything they went through in the past two or three decades.

Which family someone is born into, what education they receive, what opportunities they encounter, and what era they live in—all of these factors influence where they stand at thirty.

So rather than using “At thirty, one should be established” to judge everyone, it’s better to admit that life is always a long-distance race with different starting lines and different paces. Life isn’t about who stands higher at thirty—it’s about who can keep going.$BTC

The essence of marriage is the choice made by two people, and it should not be overly interfered with by external forces.

Life is not necessarily about going back to one’s hometown to prove oneself; rather, go wherever there are opportunities and where you can develop.

Choose fertile ground, not your ancestral homeland.

The same applies to retirement and elder care. I believe modern society should rely on a well-established social security system, rather than shifting all responsibility to children.

The storage cycle has ended

Many people think that after this round of storage adjustments, buying the dip is basically “giving money away.”

But the real risk is only just beginning.

Why?

Because cyclical stocks are the easiest to create a false sense of security.

Earnings surge, the PE is only a few times, profits hit a record high—so it looks cheap beyond belief.

But many people overlook one thing: a low PE doesn’t necessarily mean the stock is undervalued.

For cyclical stocks, the low valuation is often built on profits at the peak of the cycle.

When NAND and DRAM prices fall, gross margins return to normal, and profits shrink, you’ll realize that the “few-times PE” you saw back then was really just a mirage created by the cycle.

Lithium mining, shipping, and solar have all gone through the same story.

The company may not necessarily be in trouble, and the industry’s long-term logic may not necessarily be wrong.

What’s wrong is treating the peak-cycle profits as the future norm.

One more thing: many people always like to say, “When the stock price drops, it’s the market that has overreacted and unjustly sold it off.”

But don’t forget—hasn’t the storage sector been driven up to where it is today by the market buying it, one transaction at a time?

Even for SanDisk, the move from around $1,000 to $2,300 was also pushed up by investors using real money.

If rising prices are the market’s pricing, then falling prices are just as much the market’s pricing.

The biggest risk in investing isn’t the stock price falling—it’s believing the logic that supported the rally, yet refusing to accept the reality when the cycle turns.