23号实验猫

#币安10·30安全事件调查报告 This premeditated, despicable invasion by North Korean hackers has not only disrupted the order of the industry, but also wantonly plundered the assets of users across the entire network.

In the face of an attack involving massive funds, Binance demonstrated an unparalleled sense of responsibility and sheer strength. It did not shirk responsibility or delay payouts. Instead, it paid out in full, immediately, using enormous amounts of its own funds and SAFU reserves, and withstood an extreme test of liquidity.

A true industry leader is not one that never makes mistakes, but one with the ability and commitment to protect all users in times of disaster. Binance has proven, through its rock-solid payout efficiency, who is the most trustworthy cornerstone of the crypto world. Choose to stand with those who take responsibility, and Binance will surely rise from the ashes.
$HOT $AGT $CLANKER

#anthropicipo遭投资者压价，估值盼降至1.5万亿美元 On the surface, this looks like a reality check; in essence, Wall Street has changed the rules of the game. In the past, 700% revenue growth was enough to get institutional investors on board. Now, take a look at the prospectus and you’ll find nearly 895 billion in computing-power debt, plus a quarterly loss of 567 million. Computing costs are a bottomless pit—the money they earn all goes to chipmakers and cloud providers.

This has sounded the alarm for the entire AI sector. The era of raising money at sky-high valuations by telling a good story is over, and this reality check will quickly ripple through the secondary market. From here on, only two kinds of companies will survive: those with enough cash flow to weather the storm, and those that can truly turn computing power into net profit. Overvalued stocks still riding the hype should brace for pressure at any moment.

This doesn’t mean the industry is failing; it means capital is no longer buying into PowerPoint presentations. The lower IPO price has effectively set a floor for the market. From here on, it’s a no-holds-barred contest of performance, and the weakest will be eliminated. Do you think this valuation discount is a signal to buy the dip or a signal to get out?
$AGT $IDOL $ICNT

#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？ The outcome won't be clear until November 6. But the Fed just held steady last week, keeping rates at 3.75% to 4.00%. There was even the first instance in 34 years of regional Fed presidents and governors joining forces to vote against the decision and call for a rate hike.
The core logic now is clear:

No rate cut: If October nonfarm payroll growth is strong, combined with PCE inflation at 3.1%, the Fed will simply pause in December. High rates will continue to weigh on tech stock valuations, while a resilient economy supports consumer and industrial stocks.

A rate cut is possible: Only if nonfarm payrolls come in far below expectations and unemployment spikes will the Fed prioritize preventing a recession over fighting inflation. At that point, Treasury yields will reverse course, and money will flow back into growth stocks.

Don't guess at macro trends; understand the cost of capital. If interest rates don't fall, the stock market will see only sector rotation. Watch the labor force participation rate and wage growth figures released on November 6; these are the real deciding factors in whether the valuations of the stocks you hold get repriced.
$ARIA $LYN $EVAA

#币安第一阶段15个网络已恢复提现 Last night, Binance restored withdrawals across its first 15 mainnets, with all key channels for BTC, ETH, SOL, and USDT operating smoothly. In the few hours before withdrawals resumed, a large backlog of withdrawal requests built up, peaking at $4.65 billion. During that period, however, $1.01 billion also flowed in as users deposited funds to buy the dip, bringing the actual net outflow to $3.64 billion.

Compared with the 171 billion in assets under management disclosed in Binance’s PoR reserve report, this concentrated wave of withdrawals accounted for only about 2.1% of total assets. As the initial surge in essential withdrawals subsided, outflows had already dropped significantly.

Binance is currently using its own resources to buy tokens on the spot and OTC markets to replenish its reserves, bringing its replenishment rate to 95%. With withdrawals being processed normally and no large-scale outflow, the exchange appears to have weathered, for now, the most difficult stage of its payout crisis after on-chain pressure eased.
$ESPORTS $AIN $G

#币安已处理46.5亿美元提款 Binance had just resumed withdrawals yesterday, and processed $4.65 billion in withdrawals in just 9.5 hours, with net outflows of around $3.64 billion. Many people panicked at first, but look at the facts in the ledger: these outflows accounted for only about 2.2% of Binance’s $171 billion in assets under management. There was no bank run, and things remained stable overall.

The FBI has linked this hacking attack to a North Korean group, which made off with nearly $630 million. Binance is currently using its own funds to aggressively replenish its reserves in the spot and OTC markets, and its asset backing ratio has already climbed to 95%. Tokens are being withdrawn from exchanges in bulk to personal on-chain wallets, which has actually eased short-term selling pressure. No spin, no hype—the money can be withdrawn and received at any time, and all the data can be verified on-chain.
$ESPORTS $IDOL $LYN

#KOSPI下跌3.53%重回6000点下方

On October 30, the KOSPI closed down about 3.5% at 5,730 points, after briefly falling below 5,600 points intraday and triggering a sell-sidecar. Samsung Electronics fell 3.02%, SK hynix dropped 7.08%, and foreign investors recorded net sales of about 1.62 trillion won. On the surface, this was a pullback in chip stocks; underneath, following U.S. tech earnings, investors are once again asking when massive AI investments will translate into cash flow.

Semiconductor stocks carry significant weight in the Korean market, so when enthusiasm for AI cools, declines in leading stocks amplify pressure on the index. My view is that this looks more like a stress test of valuations and positioning, and cannot yet be equated directly with a reversal in AI demand. Going forward, watch the capital expenditure guidance of U.S. tech giants, chip orders, and foreign capital flows. If return expectations are revised down further, both Korean tech stocks and risk appetite in crypto markets could come under pressure, but the two will not necessarily move in lockstep.

$BIRB $IDOL $BEAMX

#港元稳定币HKDAP将上线Solana

HKDAP, a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, is being issued by Anchorpoint, a joint venture established by Standard Chartered, HKT, and Animoca Brands. On October 30, Anchorpoint and the Solana Foundation announced a partnership to explore native issuance and redemption on Solana; no launch date has been announced yet.

For Solana, if the plan is implemented, HKDAP could add a compliant Hong Kong dollar settlement option, giving cross-border payments, RWA tokenization, and on-chain gaming another way to settle in local currency. Whether a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin can unlock the ecosystem will depend on wallet integration, circulation, and real transactions—not the announcement itself.

My view is that this is more like a step toward extending compliant settlement onto a public blockchain by traditional financial institutions. The direction is significant, but a clear migration of funds is still some way off. In the short term, SOL will remain driven by the broader market and on-chain activity; going forward, watch the issuance timeline, redemption mechanism, and actual usage.

$PARTI $BEAMX $BIRB

#Uniswap与a16z寻求伊利诺伊州DeFi税收豁免
Illinois had originally planned to impose a 0.2% tax on certain digital asset brokerage activities, based on the value of the assets involved in each transaction. Groups including Uniswap and a16z are calling for clarification on how self-custody transfers, cross-chain bridges, and private-key records would be treated. Enforcement of the tax law has been postponed until July 2027, and the scope of the rules remains at the heart of the dispute.

What concerns me more than the tax rate is who will be classified as a “broker.” If frontend service providers are included, compliance pressures could first drive up operating costs, and some platforms might also restrict access from certain regions. My view is that in the short term, this will first affect access for U.S. users and project expectations; only in the long term might it change how DeFi is deployed.

$PARTI $BEAMX $BIRB

#加密杠杆头寸24小时清算15亿美元 Checking the markets early this morning, I saw that $1.5 billion had been wiped out across the entire crypto market in just 24 hours. Binance issued a sudden security alert, and Tether and Circle jointly froze more than $3 billion in related assets. Long positions were completely liquidated, and BTC plunged straight through the $77,000 level.

This isn't an ordinary pullback; it's a classic cascade of liquidity-driven liquidations. Faced with a sudden security incident, highly leveraged positions in the market had no room to breathe. Exchanges triggered market-price liquidations, instantly wiping out the buy-side liquidity. Both whales and retail traders were deleveraged overnight.

Looking at the data, funding rates plunged from their previous highs, and open interest fell sharply. A short-term liquidity vacuum has already formed, and market makers are pulling back their order-book depth. Next, it all comes down to whether the $75,545 support level can hold. If it breaks, the downside will open up again.$BLESS $BEAMX $PARTI

#纳指100期货下跌0.9% Don’t dismiss this as a minor fluctuation—the flow of capital behind it has completely changed.

It comes down to two things. First, Google plunged 10% after hours. It poured over $100 billion into AI capital expenditures, only for free cash flow to turn negative. The market is no longer buying the story of “burning cash without bringing any in.” Second, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, and high rates are pushing up the discount rates applied to high-valuation tech stocks.

Capital is being extremely pragmatic now. The era of hyping stocks on AI buzz is over. From here on, the market wants just two things: ample cash flow and a clear path to monetization. The sector split will be dramatic. Hardware and semiconductors will also come under pressure; only cloud computing and giants with real profits will survive. The valuation bubble is only just starting to deflate. Recognizing this is the only way to understand what comes next.

$IDOL $APR $BEAT

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$IDOL $INIT $GOOGL

#谷歌财报能否守住基本盘 Q3 revenue was $127.5 billion, up 25% year over year. The core Search business contributed $63.4 billion, still up 12% year over year, though growth was indeed slower than in the previous few quarters.

The biggest changes this time were on both ends. One was cloud computing: revenue surged to $30.7 billion, doubling, while operating profit reached $11.1 billion. All the demand from businesses buying AI compute landed here.
The other was capital expenditure: $51.3 billion was poured into infrastructure in a single quarter, pushing free cash flow down to -$9 billion. Combined with mark-to-market losses on its investment in Anthropic, net income fell 25% for the quarter, and the stock dropped 10% after hours.

The core business is still bringing in cash, and cloud is surging—but the cost of investing in computing capacity has already arrived.
$IDOL $EVAA $INIT

#泰国最高法院裁定比特币属财产 Someone on Koh Samui stole 2.48 BTC. The defendant stubbornly argued that cryptocurrency is virtual data, not property, in an attempt to avoid a robbery conviction. The court rejected the argument outright, sentenced him to 10 years in prison, and ordered him to return the original amount or pay its equivalent in cash.

This ruling establishes two crucial facts: First, stealing BTC is subject to the same criminal laws in Thailand as stealing gold, making the path to judicial recovery fully clear. Second, the central bank and the courts have drawn a clear distinction: cryptocurrency is not legal tender, but it is legitimate property because it has market value and can be controlled.

For on-chain asset compliance in Southeast Asia, this is one of the most practical judicial precedents.
$EVAA $BLESS $XPIN

#109亿美元比特币期权周五到期 options expiry is essentially the settlement of derivatives positions. The max pain price often acts like a magnet, pulling the spot price toward that range before settlement. This is a financial choice market makers make to reduce hedging costs, and is standard practice in derivatives markets.

Before settlement, market makers hedge frequently in the spot market, keeping prices firmly pinned and volatility low. Once Friday has passed and the contracts have been settled, market makers’ hedging positions are unwound, and the constraint on the spot market is finally lifted.

Next week, market movements will once again be determined by spot-market fund flows and macroeconomic data. What will truly shape the market’s direction is not the 10.9 billion in expiring contracts, but which month large investors choose to roll their positions into after settlement, and whether spot buyers are willing to step in. Options expiry simply removes the excess leverage from derivatives; once the dust settles, the real supply-and-demand dynamics will become clear.

$EVAA $INIT $XAN

#fomc会议 There was no update to the dot plot this time, so market attention was focused entirely on the policy statement and remarks at the press conference. Objectively, slowing core CPI and a cooling labor market provided grounds for pausing rate hikes, but energy prices kept headline inflation sticky.

The impact on stocks depends directly on Treasury yields. If interest rates stay higher for longer, high-valuation tech stocks will remain under pressure from discount rates, and capital will favor defensive sectors with strong cash flows. If later signals indicate that tightening is ending, long-term yields will fall and liquidity will flow back into growth stocks. The key will be upcoming PCE and GDP data; fundamentals will determine where capital ultimately goes.

$Q $AIN $BULLA

#微软财报能否兑现ai红利 Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 43% for the quarter, and full-year revenue topped $100 billion for the first time. Backlog surged to $678 billion, with a significant portion of the increase coming from traditional businesses—evidence that AI is no longer just something model companies are experimenting with; real-world businesses are starting to pay for it. Paid subscribers to M365 Copilot surpassed 30 million, providing a clear measure of commercial adoption.

However, computing costs remain high: quarterly CapEx hit $41 billion, with two-thirds going to GPUs and servers. To balance cash flow, Microsoft extended the estimated useful life of its data center assets from 15 years to 25 years, making a direct accounting adjustment to smooth the pressure on gross margins.

From here, it all comes down to how quickly capital spending can be matched by cash flow returns. As long as computing capacity orders hold up, the chip and server supply chains will have earnings support; if depreciation eats into profits, valuation consolidation is inevitable.

$AIN $BTW $EVAA

#strategy未购比特币斥资2.05亿美元回购strc It is the largest publicly traded company in the U.S. by BTC holdings. As long as BTC rises, the spot BTC it buys with money raised through debt increases in value. U.S. equity investors treat it as a leveraged substitute for BTC and buy aggressively, sending its market cap soaring.

The U.S. stock market has given it the green light. Many institutions that can’t buy spot BTC or ETFs because of compliance restrictions are now legally and compliantly gaining indirect exposure to crypto by buying its stock. That provides sustained buying support. As long as its share price and premium hold up, it will keep issuing debt to raise funds and scoop up spot BTC on the market.

Volatility is amplified in sync: its share price is tightly tied to BTC. In a bull market, it acts as a powerful amplifier. But if the broader market undergoes a deep correction, interest payments on its debt and a shrinking premium can drain liquidity in the opposite direction. Major crypto holders have overtaken traditional financial exchanges in market cap. Investor preferences are changing—the facts are that straightforward. $AIN $TAG $Q

#anthropic预计今日公布s1招股书 If Anthropic goes public, will funds in AI-themed coins flow back into U.S. stocks?

Anthropic is expected to release its IPO filing, and the market’s focus is not just that “an AI giant is going public,” but also that the company has already demonstrated strong commercialization capabilities.

In the first half of this year, Anthropic generated approximately $16.28 billion in revenue, up about 1,300% year over year. Second-quarter revenue was approximately $11.56 billion, and operating profit turned positive at around $970 million. The large net loss on its books was mainly related to the fair-value remeasurement of convertible notes following an increase in the company’s valuation. This is a non-cash accounting change and does not fully reflect the operating cash flow of its core business.

If the IPO proceeds, it could affect the U.S. AI industry in two ways:
Long-term orders and expectations for AI demand at cloud and computing companies such as AWS, Google, and Nvidia may continue to attract attention.
However, a major AI IPO could also absorb some liquidity from the tech sector, potentially leading to a divergence in short-term fund flows.

For crypto markets, some funds have chased AI-themed coins in the past, partly because there were “no top-tier AI companies available for direct investment.” If Anthropic becomes a publicly traded company, some funds may flow back into U.S.-listed AI assets.

This would also invite more direct comparisons with on-chain AI projects: Projects with real products, users, revenue, and computing demand may have a stronger narrative foundation; projects that rely mainly on white papers and market hype, without real business data, may face greater valuation scrutiny.

Do you think Anthropic’s IPO will divert funds from AI tokens, or boost enthusiasm for the entire AI sector?

#Anthropic滚动12个月营收增长约1200%
$Q $BULLA $DOOD

#strategy市值超越纳斯达克跻身全球前400 It is the largest publicly traded company in the US holding Bitcoin. As long as BTC rises, the spot Bitcoin it buys with money raised through debt increases in value. US stock market investors also treat it as a leveraged substitute for BTC and buy heavily, pushing its market cap straight up.

The US stock market has given it the green light. Many institutions that are unable to buy spot BTC or ETFs due to compliance restrictions are now legally buying its shares as an indirect way to gain exposure to Bitcoin. This provides sustained buying support. As long as its share price and premium hold up, it will keep raising funds through debt to sweep up spot Bitcoin on the market.

Volatility is amplified in sync: its share price is closely tied to BTC. In a bull market, it acts as a huge amplifier, but if the broader market sees a deep correction, debt interest and a shrinking premium can also drain liquidity in the opposite direction. Crypto-holding giants have overtaken traditional financial exchanges in market cap. Capital preferences are shifting—the facts are that direct.

$PLAY $LIGHT $ERA

#富兰克林邓普顿申请股息转比特币etf The fund allocates about 95% of its underlying assets to stocks in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100, with the remaining 5% invested in Bitcoin. Instead of using cash dividends paid by the companies to buy back shares, it uses them to purchase Bitcoin directly on trading days. The holdings are subject to risk limits: at quarterly rebalancing, if BTC exceeds 5% of the portfolio, it is reduced to 4.5%; in extreme market conditions, if it rises to 20%, it must be forcibly brought back down to 4.5% within two days.

For the crypto sector, dividends paid by U.S.-listed companies have become a source of long-term, passive buying pressure for Bitcoin. Institutions and traditional investors can also gain exposure to crypto assets through U.S. stock market cash flows without changing the core of their asset allocation. For U.S. equities, this model adds a high-potential-yield channel to traditional blue-chip stocks and innovative companies. Traditional asset managers are linking dividends with crypto assets, further narrowing the divide between the two pools of capital.

$DOOD $BULLA $ARIA