FUTURES FROM $1 FOR BEGINNERS: it’s not about trading more, it’s about managing risk better
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$ON Orochi Network dropped everything towards 0.46, but there’s some very interesting data we need to read with a magnifying glass.
1. The Whales bought at 0.21: They hold a very heavy position in Long and have accumulated more than 4.5 million in unrealized gains.
2. Funding in Positive: Here, the Longs are paying commissions to keep their positions open.
3. Trapped Shorts: Nearly 900k in floating losses for having entered too early
$ON
The two scenarios I see:
Scenario A - Bullish Continuation: If the order book absorbs the supply and breaks through 0.46, the next liquidity is in the psychological zone of 0.50-0.55.
Scenario B - Today is Friday and the Whale knows it: You who works so hard to turn effort into my liquidity deserves to take profits and take your whale wife out to dinner and have a good bottle of red wine. Also, you must already be tired of paying that ugly funding rate 🐋
P.S.: if the Whale pays attention to me, the price could see a brutal correction to the downside!
Which scenario do you think is more likely to play out in the next few hours?
When you operate from calm, you respect your plan and leave greed and fear out; the market stops being chaos and becomes discipline.
My brother @Mr Arete shared with us a few days ago the prayer he says before entering the market, and his words are peace in the middle of the storm:
"God, I put this session into Your hands. Give me wisdom to make good decisions, discipline to follow my plan, patience to wait for the best opportunities, and humility to accept every result. Let me act today with calm, without fear or greed. Amen. AMEN"
$CYS It was close to touching 0.80, but that 0.7941 isn’t bad. Now the market is giving us a pause to breathe.
There are some very interesting data points we should take into account now...
The whales haven’t left (yet): Their average purchase price has risen to the 0.60 zone. They’re still accumulating more than 1.1 million in unrealized gains, showing they’re backing the move with strength.
Funding has cooled down: we went from a rate of -0.94% to -0.01%. The market has already cleaned out much of what was in Short.
Since the whales have so many accumulated gains, the scenario is getting interesting, and there are two clear paths:
$CYS
1. Continuation of the Bullish Scenario: If the strong hand decides to hold the price above 0.75 and a new buying push kicks in, we could see a powerful break of the ATH and go after more than 0.80 (I’m now thinking about 0.92, and it doesn’t seem that crazy that the price could reach there—or am I just thinking with greed?
2. Profit-Taking Scenario: Pay close attention here! If the whales decide to pressure for profit-taking to secure that million dollars, we could see a rapid drop while trying to rebalance toward 0.60 – 0.65
The trend is still strong, but being near all-time highs calls for caution. Manage your risk well and lock in profits if you’re already in.
Today is Tuesday of JOLTs and just mentioning it sounds boring to me, but the real engine of global liquidity is decided today with the Job Openings in the United States.
$BANK
I’m going to be honest: if I weren’t interested in becoming a better trader and in the crypto world, I’d probably say that topics like this are the most boring and I’d ignore them. Even though I know it’s part of our reality and day-to-day life, it still feels strange that I have to be aware of some U.S. labor survey in order to have a correct view of what’s happening in the market.
$HOME
This number sets the pace for the Federal Reserve. If job openings come in higher than expected, the economy shows signs of overheating, inflation starts pressing again, and the Fed gets firm with rates. What does that mean for us? The dollar strengthens and risk assets, like Bitcoin and altcoins, get shaken. If the numbers are weaker, the market senses rate cuts and “gets a breath of fresh air.”
Watch out for false volatility: The minutes after this report often trigger aggressive wicks specifically designed to sweep positions on both sides—both longs and shorts.
Opening positions at random without checking the macro calendar is basically giving capital to the market. It’s like the current: either you sail with it, or it drags you along.
These are the two fronts that will move our crypto week, and we need to stay informed about them:
1. Data that moves BTC and ETH This week Washington and the Federal Reserve have the control:
Tuesday, August 4 – Job Openings (JOLTs): The first clue about the state of the labor force in the US. Okay, we know it’s not your country, but knowing this data lets you gauge the health of the labor market and anticipate the next moves by the Federal Reserve (don’t be a bitter, resentful, anti-imperialist, disgusting socialist).
Wednesday, August 5 – Services PMI: This is a key indicator for assessing overall economic activity and its impact on market volatility. Oh, sure, you don’t care—you just want to know whether it’s Short or Long 😅
Friday, August 7 – Employment Report (NFP): This is the main event of the week. A weak result could weaken the dollar and favor risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while very strong data could do the opposite, triggering sell-offs and a drop in the assets that move our favorite market ☹️
Regulation: Keep an eye on the progress of the CLARITY Act in the Senate before the legislative recess.
2. Altcoins with potential strong moves Pay close attention to the circulating supply of these altcoins that are about to have a token unlock. Remember: more supply without demand is a recipe for volatility.
$ENA : 15.1M in circulating tokens on Wednesday 5
$PROVE : $35.4M unlocked on Thursday 6
$HYPE : $22.6M to the market on the same Thursday 6 in the first days.
Tip: Check the Open Interest (OI) and the funding rate in these assets before looking for entries on the unlock days.
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