小团子的Web3日记

Although the tokens of $ZK's VC and team will be locked in the first year, the project side of $ZK has a huge amount of insider trading and needs to pull the price to sell. If it can fall below 0.15, you can try to enter the market. Next, $ZK needs to manage liquidity, which is also a common method of VC coins. While the project is hot enough, a small pull will attract a lot of investors.

If it falls to 0.15, the cost-effectiveness is very high. Enter the market at 0.18, and the target is 0.3~0.4

After the halving in 2016, Bitcoin experienced a 30% retracement, and after the halving in 2020, it experienced a retracement of more than 20%. Currently, both the hourly and fifteen-minute levels have reached the end of the fifth wave of the wave theory. Often, after the end of the fifth wave, there may be a reversal or rebound, but the current rebound is weak. Will Bitcoin retrace to 60,000? If it is 60,000, it will be a retracement of more than 20%!

What is the highest realm of cryptocurrency trading? There is no doubt that buying means locking the position, deleting the APP, and deleting irrelevant cryptocurrency groups. No market analysis, no selling until the target price is reached, this is the highest realm of cryptocurrency trading.

There is nothing much to say in the cryptocurrency circle. Trading is originally about waiting with empty positions and opening positions. Waiting with positions and closing positions. Most of the time is spent waiting.

Look at those short-term traders and contract parties who love to show off and frequently operate. They never deny the existence of a very small number of masters, but most of them are destined to be cannon fodder.

The trading master Livermore said a very classic sentence: If you ask me what the tricks of trading are, I can only say, do nothing! When there is no trading opportunity, or when there is no big trading opportunity, what traders have to do is to do nothing. Don't enter the market if you don't have a position, and hold on to the position if you have one.

It also depends on how deeply you understand another sentence of Livermore: Money is earned by sitting, not by operation. The reason why I made a lot of money has never had anything to do with my thoughts, but with my kung fu as steady as Mount Tai. Do you understand? I sit still. "According to the 80/20 principle, the entire plan takes 80% of the time to accumulate, and then it can explode in the last 20% of the time.

So in the cryptocurrency circle, short-term contracts seem to make money, but in fact, few people make money in the end. Contracts amplify price fluctuations and personal emotional fluctuations. Most people who open contracts cannot hold on to greater profits, cannot help but sell their stocks when they are trapped, and cannot control their hands when they explode. From the perspective of a larger time period, the trend income of the medium and long term will not be lower than the contract income.

Let's analyze the market in June and the second half of the year. If you don't like it, please don't criticize.

1. From the historical situation, there are still many cases of 50% correction in the bull market. After that, the sideways time is generally 2-4 months, and the outbreak time is generally 1-2 months, with an increase of about 5 times. Now it has been 2 months in the bottom range. Maybe the dark moment is about to pass.

2. At present, many cottages have fallen back to the bottom. It is meaningless to cut losses at this time.

3. Regarding the expectation of interest rate cuts, there will be at least one in the second half of this year. Because of the superposition of the general election, the probability of interest rate cuts in November is very high. The Ethereum ETF will also pass in the second half of the year, which is also a long-term positive. At the end of the year, the old American election will have 3-4 interest rate cuts next year, so the third quarter is a good time for configuration.

4. From the monthly line of Bitcoin, the bull market is still there. At present, the monthly line is just sideways, laying the foundation for the next wave of increases. Even if there is a correction, $60,000 is the limit.

5. The main option positions in the futures market are concentrated on June 28, and its biggest pain point is $55,000. Data shows that the notional amount of option positions on June 28 was US$6.564 billion, of which the number of call options was 65,800, worth US$4.454 billion, accounting for 67% of the total notional amount. This shows that the market is strongly bullish on late June.

Once again, I remind you not to underestimate $ROSE . The current ROSE price has been in a small consolidation range for more than a month, and has further broken through the consolidation range. With the breakthrough of the consolidation zone, ROSE may break out and change its bullish characteristics.

A new golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day EMAs can be seen on the daily chart of ROSE. This indicates that the upward trend has begun and may last for a long time.

$ROSE will usher in a surge in the near future. The main reason is that the launch of confidential EVM is the main catalyst. An institutional whale purchased 50 million US dollars in two weeks. The project ecosystem has received support from Google. Grayscale has also applied for a privacy ETF (artificial intelligence + privacy track) recently. The privacy track will usher in a wave of hype.

At present, if Rose is the second in the security field, I really don’t know who can jump out and say that they are the boss. At present, its price has fallen by about 90% from the historical high of US$0.59. Institutional chips are fully absorbed.

Superimposed on the market’s attention to privacy and security, the short-term support for Rose’s price has ushered in a breakthrough.  $ROSE

Can Aleo really surpass Ethereum? Will the price of the coin reach $100 after listing?

Aleo and Ethereum are both programmable L1, and Aleo's main advantage is that it takes into account privacy and high performance. However, if it wants to be a challenger to Ethereum, it faces many problems. Ethereum has a huge community of developers and users.

On the other hand, Aleo is still in its early stages. If it wants to develop its ecosystem, it has to compete with the big brothers for territory. First of all, it must attract a large number of developers, and it must build a development community from 0 to 1 to support the on-chain ecosystem. The difficulty can be imagined.    

Then there is privacy. Ethereum is not actually worried about privacy issues. Thanks to the first-mover advantage of smart contracts and a huge player base, it has always been the first choice for all kinds of developers and projects. Therefore, the privacy that Aleo focuses on is only attractive to some projects in a few tracks.

The initial total amount of Aleo is 1.5 billion. The initial circulation of a general public chain will not exceed 20%. If we calculate it based on 10%-20%, the circulation is 225 million-300 million.

According to the total market value of the L1 public chain, if Aleo enters the third echelon, the full circulation market value will be 20-30 billion US dollars, and the coin price will be 10-15 US dollars. If it is between the third echelon and the second echelon, the full circulation market value will be 50-60 billion US dollars, and the coin price will be 25-30 US dollars.

The most likely possibility is that after Aleo goes online, it will be between 25-30 US dollars for a long time. Of course, market speculation cannot be ruled out, which will continue to raise the price, but the high price will definitely not last long.

Let's talk about the $IO project. This post may be the most fair and objective one in the square.

IO.NET held a 4-day launchpool on the Binance platform, and the current price is around 5.5. The overall FDV is 3 billion US dollars, and the initial circulation rate is 19%. io.net mainly does GPU in the AI ​​field, so its positioning is the same as RNDR and AKT.

At present, the market value of RNDR is about 3 billion, and the FDV is 4.4 billion. The current market value of AKT is 1 billion, and the FDV is 1.5 billion. From the perspective of FDV, IO and RNDR are similar, higher than AKT.

However, AKT is a project that appeared in the last bull market, with high token circulation and dispersed coin holdings. As a new project, IO has a large number of coins in its hands. This is OK for retail investors to make short-term profits, but the risk of long-term holding is too high.

Why do the copycats in this cycle seem unable to rise? So far in this cycle, except for some altcoins in a few fields (tracks) such as MemeCoin and AI, most altcoins have actually failed to meet people’s expectations.

The main reason is that the dispersion of the market has increased significantly, and the inflow of external capital has not increased significantly (institutional funds mainly flowed into BTC ETF). In addition, not only are there many new projects, but many projects have high FDV from the beginning. The issuance volume of VC coins with low circulation and high FDV far exceeds the speed of new liquidity in the market, which will cause the market's ATH opportunities to be severely diluted.​

The current crypto market seems to be changing from fundamentals to attention, that is, wherever people's attention goes, funds seem to flow there.

The copycat season will start, if it starts as early as September or October this year, it is most likely to be in the first quarter of 2025. We should focus on looking for projects with a market value of less than 1 billion, high circulation rates, and strong narrative capabilities in their fields. They will perform relatively well.
We should focus on looking for projects with a market value of less than 1 billion, high circulation rates, and strong narrative capabilities in their fields. They will perform relatively well.

In the short term, consider alternatives in popular fields (such as AI, RWA, BTC L2), such as new ones that have certain product/narrative capabilities or a relatively good ecological layout, but have very few unlocks in the first year. Projects like this can be speculated on in the short term.

Current altcoin season ends, next one will be in early 2025

Since 2022, a pattern has emerged. August 2022 was the penultimate altcoin season, six months before the Bitcoin season began.

The next and most recent altcoin season began eight months later, in January of this year. Now, five months later, we are witnessing a Bitcoin season again.

If this pattern continues, investors can expect the altcoin season to begin in about seven to eight months. This means the potential timeline for the next altcoin season would be February 2025.

Regarding the Fed's interest rate cut, we still stick to the conclusion that "there will be a maximum rate cut in 2024", with an amplitude of about 25 basis points, and the time node should be in November.

As an investor, don't follow the market's expectations. First of all, the market's expectations cannot be ahead of the Fed, and the Fed will not let the market expectations go ahead. Any economic data is an illusion that the Fed wants to influence the market. This is why the market's bets have always been very biased in the past year.

In fact, it was all intentional by the Fed. This is also the insidiousness of the Fed. Even if the whole world knows that they are going to cut interest rates, they will never allow funds to run away in advance. In a limited high-interest rate cycle, they will fully reap the world. They can make other countries fall on the eve of the interest rate cut, and they will never let them survive the last night.

It depends on who can survive to the end.

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China released a report saying that Bitcoin is gold and Ethereum is "digital oil." Obviously, this report is very rare. After all, ICBC is the leader in the Chinese banking industry. Does it also indirectly convey the current official attitude?

Let's analyze whether the Fed will cut interest rates this year, and when is the most likely time to cut interest rates?

At present, although the Fed has been suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts, judging from the US economic data, inflation index, and the early interest rate cuts taken by other Western countries and the European Central Bank, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year is also increasing.

Switzerland became the first G10 member to start cutting interest rates, directly cutting 25 basis points to 1.50%.

On May 8, Sweden became the first country in the eurozone to cut interest rates, announcing a 25 basis point cut in interest rates from 4% to 3.75%, and Sweden became the second G10 country to cut interest rates.

Less than a month later, on June 5, Canada issued an interest rate decision, announcing that it would cut the overnight interest rate target from 5% to 4.75%, becoming the first country in the G7 group to cut interest rates!

The G10+7 group is the "small circle of the West", so when Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, and the eurozone announced interest rate cuts, the European Central Bank also announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on June 6.

After the European Central Bank cuts interest rates, the UK will certainly follow suit. These Western powers and the Federal Reserve stand on the same page. The central banks that cut interest rates must have already colluded with the Federal Reserve, or at least have a relatively certain prediction, otherwise they will not act rashly.

At present, the market expects that the Federal Reserve is more likely to start cutting interest rates in November this year, with a probability of only 57% in September and only 19% in July.

For the expectation of a rate cut in September, the underlying factor is the Democratic Party's votes, and perhaps the US stock market can still be strong for a few months. However, because there is no liquidity crisis, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a rate cut of about 4-5% for a period of time after the rate cut, until a liquidity crisis occurs, and then it will cut interest rates or even expand its balance sheet. Therefore, the conclusion is that no matter what, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this year, so the third quarter will be an important layout window period.

At present, the TVL on the chain of $OP is 2.1 billion US dollars. What does this mean? Let me show you the TVL of the star high-speed public chain SOL, which is 600 million US dollars, and the TVL of Binance Chain is 2.9 billion US dollars, which is not much different from the TVL of BSC, which is 3 times that of SOL.

Although it is an old L2 public chain, it does not mean that the concept is old. Look at the new SUI chain, which has only 130 million US dollars of TVL. Another one with the concept of L2, backed by Bybit's mantle, has only 75 million US dollars of TVL. Therefore, there is no comparison and no harm. OP still has a relatively large growth potential.

The current market value of $OP is 2 billion US dollars, which is absolutely not worthy of the current ecology