天运众智

#Crypto初创公司Q2首周融资7600万美元 2026 Q2 First Week (April 6–10, 2026) Crypto Startup Funding: $76 million (DefiLlama Data)

🔍 Key Events

- Pharos (High-Performance Layer 1): $44 million Series A, backed by SNZ, Chainlink, Flow Traders, focusing on RWA and Ethereum-compatible high throughput
- Oh (Web3 AI Platform): $7.5 million Series A, led by Maven 11, developing decentralized AI models and on-chain incentive tools
- Kulipa (Wallet Payment Card): $6.2 million Seed Round, led by Flourish Ventures and 1kx, supporting fiat inflows and outflows

📊 Market Background

- Cumulative by early 2026: nearly **$5 billion**, Q1 down **16%** year-on-year but market, payment, and infrastructure are expected to gain strong attention
- Capital Flow: Concentrated on projects with visible revenue, compliance, and practical implementation
- Macroeconomic Impact: Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran, and concerns over AI model safety have made VCs more cautious

🚀 Trends and Risks

- Trends: AI + Web3, RWA, and payment infrastructure becoming the main lines
- Risks: Valuation tightening, harsher terms, projects need to demonstrate sustainable revenue and compliance

#Pyth launches data marketplace and receives support from six financial institutions Pyth officially launched the Pyth Data Marketplace on April 9, 2026, supported by six global financial institutions. Institutions can retain data ownership and distribute directly on-chain, covering core data of traditional finance.

📌 Core Information

- Launch Date: 2026-04-09 (official announcement)
- Supporting Institutions: Euronext, Exchange Data International (EDI), Fidelity Investments, OTC Markets Group, Singapore Exchange FX Data Business (SGX FX), Tradeweb
- Data Coverage: Spot foreign exchange, precious metals, crude oil swaps, over-the-counter pricing (OTC), fixed income, stock/ETF reference data, etc.
- Core Model: Institutions retain ownership/pricing rights/attribution rights, reducing intermediary losses through on-chain distribution, achieving transparent access control
- User Value: Provides institutional-grade high-quality data for on-chain applications, accelerating the integration of TradFi and Web3

🔍 Key Significance

- Model Innovation: Breaks the monopoly of traditional data providers, allowing source parties to distribute directly, reducing costs and increasing efficiency
- Ecosystem Expansion: The Pyth network currently has over 120 publishing institutions and over 3000 price feeds, with cumulative secured trading volume exceeding $30 trillion
- Compliance Implementation: Supports traditional financial data on-chain, enhancing the credibility and compliance of DeFi and institutional applications

⚠️ Risks and Impacts

- Short Term: Data quality and stability need time to validate, and the pace of institutional onboarding affects coverage breadth
- Long Term: May reshape the global financial data supply chain, promote on-chain data standardization, benefiting Web3 infrastructure and RWA sector

#Market Trends | HYPE Leverage Trading Profits Exceed 5 Million USD Market Trends｜HYPE Leverage Trading Profits Exceed 5 Million USD (2026.4.11)

Core Background: Bitwise Advances BHYP ETF Approval Expectations + HYPE Surges 65% → Leverage Funds Concentrated in Huge Profits

1. Events and Sources of Profit

- Target: Hyperliquid (HYPE), DeFi Derivatives Leading Public Chain
- Catalyst: - April 11: Bitwise Submits Final Revision of BHYP Spot ETF (Code BHYP, Management Fee 0.67%)
- Bloomberg: SEC Approval Imminent (Similar Altcoin ETF Accelerating)
- HYPE from the Beginning of 2026 to Now: +65% ($25 → $42)
- Leverage Profit Entities: - Institutions/Whales: 3–5 Times Leverage Long HYPE Perpetual/Futures
- Cycle: 2–4 Weeks Holding Period
- Earnings: Over 5 Million USD Net Profit (Single Account/Single Strategy)
- Key: ETF Expectations Anticipated to Run Ahead + High Volatility + Leverage Amplification

2. HYPE Market and Leverage Profit Calculation (Brief Version)

- Current Price (4.11): $41.96
- 2026 Low: $25.6 (+64%)
- 3 Times Leverage 4 Weeks Earnings: - No Leverage: +64%
- 3 Times Leverage (After Fees): ≈ +170%
- 3 Million Principal → 8.1 Million → Net Profit 5.1 Million (Meets Over 5 Million Level)

3. Why HYPE Became a Leverage Hotspot

1. Strongest ETF Expectations - First DeFi Derivative Track ETF
- Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares Compete for the First HYPE ETF
- High Certainty of Institutional Buying After Listing
2. Strong Fundamentals - Hyperliquid: Over 27 Trillion USD Cumulative Trading Volume
- On-Chain Perpetual Contracts Market Share First
- Token Deflation + Staking Yields 8–12%
3. Volatility Suitable for Leverage - Average Daily Volatility > 8%
- Strong News Driven, Good Trends, Controllable Drawdowns

4. Current Risks (4.11)

- SEC Delays/Denials: Altcoin ETF Still Uncertainty
- Profit Taking: Over 5 Million Positions Concentrated Liquidation Risk
- Market Drag: Middle East/Oil Prices/CPI Fluctuations → Overall Crypto Volatility
- Leverage Liquidation: HYPE Daily > 15% Drawdown Easily Triggers Chain Liquidations

5. Trading Opportunities (Short-Term)

- Support: $38–$40 (Pre-ETF News Platform)
- Resistance: $48–$50 (Historical High)
- Strategy: - Long: Steady above $41 with Light Position, Stop Loss at $38
- Swing: Accumulate on Dips Before ETF Approval
- Leverage: 2–3 Times is Appropriate (Control Liquidation)

#Circle defends the decision not to freeze during the $270 million hacking incident, related lawsuits are still ongoing. Circle will publicly defend its decision regarding the “unfrozen stolen USDC” in the Drift $285 million hacking case on April 10-11, 2026. Core position: freeze only according to the law, no self-help; related class action has been initiated.

🚨 Incident Review (April 1)

- Hacker: exploited vulnerabilities in the Drift protocol on Solana to steal $285 million
- USDC portion: approximately $232 million USDC transferred to Ethereum via Circle's cross-chain protocol CCTP
- Attribution: on-chain analysis points to North Korea's Lazarus Group
- Critical window: Circle had 6 hours to freeze but did not act

📢 Circle's Official Defense (Blog Statement on April 11)

1. Lawfully compliant, no overreach - freeze only under court orders, law enforcement requests, or sanctions lists
- Freezing without legal authorization constitutes overreach and would face significant litigation and compensation risks
- Emphasizes: the right to freeze is not a backdoor, no arbitrary review
2. Protecting user rights and the rule of law - opposes “cutting first and reporting later”, to avoid wrong or excessive freezing of legitimate addresses
- Maintaining the neutrality and predictability of USDC is the foundation of institutional trust
3. Technical feasibility ≠ legal feasibility - acknowledges technical ability to freeze (contract blacklist)
- However, contractual rights ≠ legal authorization, self-help is illegal

⚖️ Litigation Progress

- From April 9: U.S. law firms initiated a class action investigation
- Defendants: Circle (failure to fulfill security obligations, failure to freeze in time)
- Plaintiffs: Drift users, LPs, parties with losses
- Status: evidence collection ongoing, no formal case filed yet

🔥 Core Controversy

- Critics (e.g., ZachXBT) - Circle had a 6-hour window but did nothing
- In past hacking cases, delays/non-freezes have resulted in over $420 million of illegal USDC circulation
- Other stablecoin issuers froze faster in similar Lazarus cases
- Supporters/legal community - no order to freeze: Circle could face counter-suits from hackers, potentially costing billions
- Calls for legislative safe harbor: allow for preventive freezing in clear theft cases without liability

📌 Impact

- Stablecoin trust: USDC's “compliance and safety” image is damaged
- Regulatory winds: may prompt the U.S. to introduce emergency freeze rules for stablecoins
- DeFi security: highlights dual risks of protocol vulnerabilities + centralized stablecoin risk management

#受能源成本推动美国CPI升至22个月高位达3点3 % The US CPI soared to 3.3% year-on-year in March 2026 (a 22-month high), with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, primarily due to the surge in energy prices caused by conflicts in the Middle East.

📊 Core data (released on April 10)

- Overall CPI: year-on-year 3.3% (previous value 2.4%); month-on-month 0.9% (the largest since July 2022)
- Core CPI (excluding food/energy): year-on-year 2.6% (previous value 2.5%); month-on-month 0.2% (stable)
- Energy sub-item (main reason): - Energy prices month-on-month +10.9% (the largest since September 2005)
- Gasoline month-on-month +21.2% (the largest since data available in 1967)
- Fuel oil month-on-month +30.7% (the largest since 2000)
- Gasoline alone contributed nearly 3/4 of the CPI month-on-month increase

⛽ Trigger: Middle East conflict (US-Iran/Hormuz Strait)

- Geopolitical conflicts escalated in March, disrupting key global shipping routes
- Brent crude oil average price in March $104.2/barrel, briefly $134+ in early April
- The impact of energy has not yet fully transmitted to downstream goods and services

🏛️ Impact on the Federal Reserve and the market

- Interest rate cuts delayed: June rate cut probability plummeted, annual rate cut expectation reduced to once
- US dollar strengthens, US treasury yields jump
- US stock market fluctuations: energy stocks strong, growth under pressure
- Cryptocurrency market: risk appetite cools, overvalued DeFi/AI tokens under pressure

⚠️ Key judgments

- One-time shock vs persistent inflation: core remains stable, but if high oil prices persist, inflation may rise further in the second quarter
- Federal Reserve in a dilemma: anti-inflation vs economic growth/employment

#Due to governance disputes, Bittensor plummeted 20% after Covenant AI's exit on April 10, 2026. After Covenant AI, a core contributor to Bittensor, exited due to governance disputes, TAO plummeted approximately 20% within 2 hours, with nearly $900 million in market value evaporated.

📉 Key Events

- Date: 2026-04-10
- Entity: Covenant AI (Bittensor's leading subnet developer, operating SN3/SN39/SN81)
- Trigger: Accusations against co-founder Jacob Steeves (Const) of “centralized control,” calling it a “decentralized theater”
- Reason for exit: Suspension of subnet emissions, revocation of community moderation rights, unilateral abandonment of infrastructure, suspected economic pressure through large TAO sell-offs

💥 Market Reaction

- Drop: Fell from about $338 to $254 within 2 hours, with a maximum drop of around 23%, then rebounded to the $260–270 range
- Market Value: Approximately $900 million evaporated in a single day
- Funding: About $9 million in long and short positions were forcibly liquidated
- Controversy: The community questions Covenant AI's “TAO sell-off before exit,” accused of inflating sales under the guise of “decentralization”

🔍 Positions of Both Parties

- Covenant AI: Insists that “decentralization is a lie,” will continue to develop LLM projects like Covenant-72B on other platforms
- Bittensor co-founder: Denies the accusations, claims no unilateral control rights, will introduce a “locked subnet ownership” mechanism to define ownership through long-term commitment

⚠️ Key Impacts

- Governance Trust: Exposes the contradictions between centralized governance and token incentives in AI computing power token projects
- Structural Risks: Departure of core developers may trigger computing power migration and ecological fragmentation
- Short-term Sentiment: TAO may maintain volatility, with the need to observe new governance rules and core computing power retention

#Bitwise advances HYPE ETF application, plans to use BHYP code and charge a management fee of 67 basis points. Bitwise submitted the second amendment document for the Hyperliquid (HYPE) spot ETF on April 11, 2026, confirming the code BHYP, an annual fee of 0.67% (67 bps), and is seen as a signal of nearing approval.

📌 Key Information

- Product: Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (spot HYPE)
- Code: BHYP
- Management Fee: 0.67% (67 bps)
- Time: Submitted amendment to SEC on 2026-04-11
- Status: SEC has not yet approved; it is widely believed that completing the code + fee rate = close to listing

🔍 Background and Competition

- Underlying: HYPE — the native token of the decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid
- Competitors: Grayscale, 21Shares are also applying for HYPE ETF
- Strategy: Bitwise plans to include staking yields to enhance attractiveness
- Fee Comparison: - BHYP: 0.67%
- Most crypto ETFs: 0.70%–0.95%
- Bitcoin/Ethereum mainstream: ~0.70%

📈 Significance

- DeFi token ETF milestone: HYPE is the first decentralized exchange platform token to impact the US ETF
- Institutional Entry: Traditional funds can participate in DeFi leaders through compliant channels on US stock markets
- Pricing Power Shift: Centralized ETFs may become the main pricing market for HYPE.

#香港向汇丰与渣打合资企业颁发首批稳定币牌照 Hong Kong issued the first batch of stablecoin licenses to the joint venture of HSBC and Standard Chartered, Anchor Financial Technology, on April 10, 2026, marking a new phase of "licensed operation" in Hong Kong's stablecoin regulation.

📌 Key Information

- Issuing Authority: Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA)
- Approved Institutions: - Anchor Financial Technology (Standard Chartered holds 50.5%, joint venture)
- The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
- License Effective Date: Effective on April 10, 2026
- Application Status: A total of 36 applications received, with an approval rate of approximately 5.6%
- Initial Phase Direction: Both plan to first issue Hong Kong dollar stablecoins

🔍 Issuance Plans and Applications

- HSBC: Launch in the second half of 2026, integrating with PayMe and HSBC HK App, covering P2P/P2M payments and tokenized investments
- Anchor Financial: Phased issuance of HKDAP starting in Q2 2026, using a B2B2C model
- Compliance Assurance: Both commit to 100% high-quality liquidity reserves, independent custody, and daily audits

⚠️ Regulatory Highlights (the strictest globally)

- Capital Requirement: Paid-up capital ≥ HKD 25 million
- Reserve Rules: Limited to cash/short-term debt and other high liquidity, low-risk assets
- Redemption Mechanism: Completed within one working day at face value
- Product Restrictions: Only fiat-backed stablecoins are permitted; algorithmic/unbacked types are prohibited

📈 Market Impact

- Milestone Significance: Hong Kong's stablecoin regulation transitions from a pilot to a compliant norm, promoting the integration of TradFi and Web3
- Industry Demonstration: Licensed entities with banking backgrounds provide compliance templates, benefiting the Hong Kong digital asset ecosystem and RWA development
- Regional Competition: Strengthens Hong Kong's position as a hub connecting Asia's Web3 and traditional finance

#Web3 Wallet Zerion Discovers Abnormal Activity, Advises Users to Pause Use of Web App Web3 Wallet Zerion Detected abnormal activity on the web app (app.zerion.io) on April 11, 2026 (Beijing Time), proactively taking the web app offline and advising users to pause usage.

⚠️ Core of the Incident (as of April 11, 20:30)

- Time: 2026-04-11
- Affected: Web App (app.zerion.io)
- Security: Mobile App, Browser Extension Unaffected
- Nature: Frontend Risk (non-on-chain contract/private key leakage)
- Reason: Security tools like Blockaid marked domain risk, Zerion proactively shut down

🔐 Asset Security Explanation (Key)

- Zerion is a non-custodial wallet, private keys always remain on user devices
- The web app was hacked, making it impossible to directly steal assets, but may: - pop up malicious authorization/signatures, inducing user action
- display fake balances, fake transactions, phishing interfaces
- Official confirmation: User funds are safe

✅ Urgent User Action Recommendations

1. Immediately stop using app.zerion.io
2. Switch to Mobile App / Browser Extension (safe)
3. If you have recently used the web app: - Check authorization records, revoke suspicious authorizations
- Review transaction history, confirm no anomalies
4. Only obtain announcements and links from Official Channels

📌 Official Latest (X Platform)

"We're investigating abnormal activity on app.zerion.io.
Do NOT use the web app until further notice."

#Geopolitics | The U.S. military used PrSM missiles to strike civilian targets in Iran. As of April 11, 2026, the U.S. military has been accused of using new PrSM precision strike missiles to attack civilian targets in Iran on the first day of military action on February 28. The core information of the incident is as follows:

1. Core of the Incident (U.S. Media + Multiple Confirmations)

- Time: February 28, 2026 (the first day of U.S. military action against Iran)
- Location: Lamerd, Fars Province, Iran
- Targets: - A gymnasium (there were youth volleyball training at the time)
- Adjacent elementary school and two residential areas
- All approximately 300 meters from IRGC facilities
- Weapon: PrSM (precision strike missile) — a new type of short-range ballistic missile used by the U.S. military, first combat use - Features: airburst, dispersal of over 180,000 tungsten projectiles, large-scale personnel casualties
- Range of about 644 kilometers, just completed testing
- Casualties (Iran + U.S. media): - Gymnasium: 21 dead (including 5 children, the youngest 2 years old), hundreds injured
- Elementary school/residential areas: dozens of casualties

2. Key Evidence (The New York Times + Military Experts)

1. Surveillance video: Missile exploded above the building, not ground impact
2. On-site shrapnel: Walls densely packed with small tungsten projectile holes, consistent with PrSM features
3. Debris and trajectory: Shape and flight characteristics match PrSM
4. U.S. acknowledgment: Central Command confirmed PrSM was used in combat for the first time in the Iran operation

3. U.S. Attitude

- Initial denial: Claimed no strikes in the area, the weapon was Iran's "Hoveyzeh" missile
- Change of stance: Admitted to using PrSM, but stated the target was a military facility, and civilian casualties were collateral damage
- Position: "The U.S. military does not target civilians"

4. Iran and International Reactions

- Iran: Identified as a war crime, condemned the use of civilian facilities as a testing ground for new weapons
- Criticism: PrSM airburst projectile design poses extremely high risks to civilians
- United Nations: Called for investigation and accountability

5. Geopolitical Impact

- Escalated U.S.-Iran hostilities, Iran vows retaliation
- International skepticism regarding U.S. military's commitment to civilian protection in "precision strikes"
- Increased risk of regional conflict escalation.

#地缘政治 | Iran's negotiation conditions have not been met as of April 11 (today at 19:00). Iran's two core prerequisites for negotiation have not been met, and the negotiation is in a state of "stagnation with no breakthrough, discussing while consuming time".

1. Official confirmation: conditions not met

The Iranian official (Fars News Agency) latest statement:

"The two prerequisites for Iran to initiate negotiations: ceasefire in Lebanon, unfreezing Iran's frozen assets, have not been implemented yet."

2. Two hard conditions (Iran's bottom line)

1. Ceasefire throughout Lebanon - Israel is still conducting airstrikes in southern Lebanon
- U.S. side: has never committed to a ceasefire in Lebanon (the White House explicitly denied)
- Iran: no ceasefire, no direct negotiations
2. Unfreezing Iran's overseas assets (approximately $6 billion) - U.S. side: no signature, no transfer, no timetable
- Iran: if the money does not arrive, negotiations are meaningless

3. Iran's actions today (highly cautious)

- The delegation has arrived in Islamabad but will not meet directly with the U.S. side
- First, they will talk with the mediators from Pakistan and decide by evening whether to officially negotiate
- The military simultaneously warns: ready for combat at any time, ready to pull the trigger, and escalation of Strait control

4. Impact on crypto/oil markets (key influence)

- Oil: conditions not met → Strait risks remain, oil prices likely to rise and hard to fall
- Crypto (BTC/ETH) - Short-term: increased volatility, fluctuating risk aversion
- If it is announced tonight that there will be no direct negotiations → risk assets may drop sharply
- If negotiations are forced but with no progress → high-level consolidation, possible pullback at any time

5. Summary in one sentence

Iran "won't show the rabbit without the eagle", the U.S. "only talks empty promises without providing real benefits", the next 24 hours are the lifeline for negotiations.

#AI Trends | U.S. Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman Emergency Meeting Discussing AI Cyber Risks U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant + Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, April 7 (Tuesday) held an urgent meeting with Wall Street giants, directly pointing to AI cyber risks threatening the financial system.

1. Core of the Event (Latest April 11)

- Trigger Point: Anthropic released Mythos model - Capability: Automatically discover and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in mainstream OS/browsers
- Testing: Complete attack chain built on Linux kernel
- Not publicly released, only a small range opened to Apple, Microsoft, JPMorgan
- Attendees: - Regulators: Treasury Secretary Basant + Powell (rare collaboration)
- Banks: Citibank, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo CEOs
- Absentees: JPMorgan's Dimon (scheduling conflict)
- Nature of the Meeting: Temporary, secret, urgent

2. Why so tense? (Qualitative Change in AI Risks)

1. Attack threshold drops to zero - No need for top hackers, AI automatically finds vulnerabilities and attacks
- Black industry/state hackers can batch invade the financial system
2. Fatal weaknesses in the financial system - Banks, payments, clearing, stablecoins, exchanges are all targets
- A single successful attack can trigger a bank run and systemic risk
3. Regulatory judgment - Direct classification: AI cyber attacks = number one systemic financial risk
- Powell + Treasury Secretary collaboration = highest level alert

3. Direct Impact on the Crypto Market (What You Care About Most)

- Short term (1–2 weeks) - Risk appetite decreases: DeFi/CEX security sectors receive attention
- Increased volatility: The market fears AI attacks on smart contracts, wallets, exchanges
- Medium term (1–3 months) - Regulatory acceleration: AI security reviews, mandatory upgrades for cybersecurity compliance
- Funding preference: Greater trust in compliant, well-audited, highly secure projects
- Favorable sectors - AI security, on-chain firewalls, zero trust, formal verification, quantum-resistant projects

4. One-Sentence Summary

AI has transformed from an efficiency tool into a financial nuclear bomb, as the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department elevate AI cyber risks to the level of systemic crisis for the first time.

#Worldcoin将每日WLD解锁速率下调43 %$WLD
Worldcoin (WLD) official confirmation: From July 24, daily unlock will be reduced by 43%

Core data (Binance/On-chain)

- Effective date: July 24, 2026 (automatically executed)
- Original daily unlock: 5.1 million WLD
- New daily unlock: 2.9 million WLD
- Reduction: 43%
- Breakdown - Community portion: 3.2 million → 1.6 million (-50%)
- Team/Investors: 1.9 million → 1.3 million (-32%)

Market impact (short-term)

- Positive: Significantly reduce structural selling pressure, favorable for mid-term prices
- Already reflected: After the announcement, WLD temporarily rose **~12–18%**
- Current (April 11): $3.35 USDT, 24h +4.2%

Background

- Total supply 10 billion, 4.9 billion unlocked (49%), 3.3 billion in circulation
- Previous long-term high unlock led to continuous selling pressure
- Official purpose: Reduce selling pressure, stabilize coin price, support ecosystem

#币安人生当前领涨 $币安人生
Binance Life (BinanceLife / BIANRENSHENG) as of April 11, 2026, 19:00 (Binance data):

- Current price: $0.132 USDT
- 24h increase: +53.07% (about **$0.046**)
- 24h high: $0.138 / low: $0.082
- Market cap: ~ $132 million
- 24h trading volume: ~ $542 million

🔥 Reasons for the surge (short-term driving factors)

1. CZ (Changpeng Zhao) concept speculation: English autobiography release, expectation of Chinese book
2. BNB Chain ecosystem Meme popularity: funds pouring into Binance meme coins
3. Contract liquidation boost: short-term bulls squeezed, shorts liquidated
4. Community sentiment explosion: Chinese circle topics trending, funds grouping

⚠️ Risk Warning

- Pure Meme coins: no substantial projects, no practical applications
- High control + high volatility: daily amplitude exceeds 60%, very prone to rollercoaster
- Regulatory and platform risks: non-official Binance projects, concepts are likely to fade

#【Golden Finance】
International
1.【US Senator Questions Trump's Use of Meme Coin for Lunch Sales Opportunities】
2.【First Lady Rarely Speaks: Denies Any Connection to Epstein, Hints at Legal Action】
3.【Japanese Government Cabinet Approves Bill Classifying Cryptocurrency as Financial Products】
4.【Dutch International: US Inflation Data May Support Dollar Trends】
5.【White House Internal Warning: Prohibits Staff from Using Insider Policy to Bet on Prediction Markets】
6.【South Korean Financial Intelligence Unit Plans to Tighten Rules on Personal Wallets and Overseas Exchange Transfers】
7.【Malaysian Prime Minister: 6 Oil Tankers Heading to Malaysia Passed Through the Strait of Hormuz】
8.【Nakamoto Seeks to Maintain NASDAQ Listing Through Reverse Stock Split】
9.【Chief Advisor to the Ukrainian President Believes Agreement with Putin is Imminent】

#美国银行全球经济对石油依赖度降低 Bank of America: The global economy's dependence on oil has significantly decreased, and resilience to shocks has strengthened (2026-04-11)

Core Conclusion: The global economy's dependence on oil has decreased by about two-thirds compared to the 1970s, with a significant reduction in oil consumption per unit of GDP, and resilience to oil shocks has markedly increased.

🔍 Core Data and Basis

- Oil consumption per unit of GDP: The current oil usage for producing GDP of the same scale is only 1/3 of that in the 1970s.
- U.S. resilience to shocks: The impact of a 10% increase in oil prices on inflation has decreased from 90 basis points in the 70s to 25 basis points currently.
- Proportion of energy expenditure: The proportion of U.S. household energy expenditure to after-tax income has decreased from about **10% in the early 1980s to below 6%** currently.
- Structural changes: The U.S. has become the world's largest energy producer and net exporter, significantly enhancing energy self-sufficiency.

🌍 Regional Differences

- United States: Strongest resilience to shocks, low energy density, and high self-sufficiency.
- Eurozone: Sensitivity is about twice that of the U.S., with energy accounting for 9–10% of household expenditure, and it is a net energy importing region.

⚠️ Risks and Reminders

- Not completely risk-free: The world still heavily relies on high-energy-consuming sectors such as petrochemicals, aviation, and shipping, and the energy transition is gradual, making complete replacement difficult in the short term.
- Beware of structural substitution: Sensitivity of energy shocks to related categories like natural gas and fertilizers is rising, which may create additional shocks for Europe and developing economies.
- Stagflation risk coexists: Bank of America warns that we are currently in a mild stagflation environment, with global growth potentially dropping to 3.1% in 2026 and inflation possibly reaching 3.3%, while high oil prices may persist.

📊 Impact on Markets and Assets

- Commodities: The marginal impact of oil on global inflation and growth is declining, but the resilience of crude oil prices remains, with Brent potentially maintaining a high level near $100/barrel in 2026.
- Stock Market: The weight of the energy sector is decreasing, and the impact of oil prices on non-energy sectors is weakening, alleviating energy cost pressures on growth and technology stocks.
- Cryptocurrency: The impact of oil shocks on the overall market is weakening, but geopolitical premiums may still transmit to the cryptocurrency market through macro sentiments.

【Cointime】
Data
【Galaxy Digital's annual net loss of $241 million】
【The U.S. Department of Labor will release March CPI data tonight at 20:30】
【The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $304.9 million yesterday】
【The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $106.16 million yesterday】
【Onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar closed at 6.8333 on April 10 at 16:30】
【The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage on Thursday was $402 million】
【The Hong Kong Monetary Authority selected 2 issuers from 36 applications to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses】
【Metalpha associated address deposited 7,200 ETH into Binance, worth approximately $15.79 million】