Higher than the 2008 recession. Higher than the 2020 pandemic. Higher than the Asian Financial Crisis. Higher than the 2001 recession.
And this time it’s not driven by one thing; it’s multiple risks building together.
Global trade tensions are still unresolved. Many large economies are operating without long-term trade clarity, which is keeping supply chains unstable and pricing volatile.
Geopolitical risks are also elevated at the same time. The Russia-Ukraine war is ongoing, US-Iran tensions are rising, and Asia-region flashpoints like China-Taiwan remain active.
Multiple conflict zones are contributing to the same uncertainty pool.
At the same time, if you look at the global economy...
The US economy is slowing on several forward indicators; layoffs are rising, bankruptcies are increasing, and some parts of the market are already showing stress. China is still dealing with property and growth issues despite liquidity support. Japan is facing rising bond yields and policy tightening pressure. Europe continues to struggle with weak growth and demand.
So unlike past crisis periods that had one central trigger, the current one is being driven by trade stress, geopolitical risk, and economic slowdown at the same time.
That combined pressure is what pushed the global uncertainty index to record territory.
Historically, setups like this tend to play out in two stages:
First comes volatility and downside pressure as liquidity tightens and risk appetite falls.
Then comes policy response: rate cuts, liquidity injections, and coordinated easing if growth weakens further.
We saw the same sequence during 2020.
So near term, elevated uncertainty is negative for risk assets.
But later,every road leads to more money printing which will be bullish for crypto.