MCooldady

The same exact pattern for #Bitcoin    has played itself out in every cycle with the 20 Week EMA.

Recently, during the pullback to $38,500, price narrowly missed a retest of the moving average as support, a false retest.

But a closer look at the cycles shows that every single one has experienced this, in an even larger 6-step pattern:

1. Price breaks above the moving average and goes on its first run of the cycle

2. Price breaks below the moving average after the completion of the first run

3. Price breaks above again, marking the first true rally

4. Price creates a false retest of support where it narrowly misses the moving average

5. A second run takes place (We are here)

6. Bitcoin finally makes a true retest of the Moving average as support

According to this measure, maybe the full correction does not need to be as deep while the moving average sits at just $40,000.

Sideways price action is typical after the true retest.

Unlike the Halving Cycles Theory, the Alternate Theory says there is a possibility that #Bitcoin    cycles are shifting left by 6 months.

This would call for a top around May 2025.

As price nears yearly highs, more and more people are convinced this time is different.

Price for now continues to side with the original Halving Cycles Theory with a top in late 2025, but what would make the Alternate Theory, become the primary theory?

New ATHs sooner than expected.

According to the Alternate Theory, new ATHs would appear after May 2024, instead of November 2024.

This would mark a monumental shift for Bitcoin, breaking firm cycles that have existed since it was created.

Until we see price action going that way, nothing is different, but if it does... we can be prepared!

Even as #Bitcoin    makes a strong rebound, I am sticking to cycle timing and data.

All mid-top points have been hit, and what follows according to previous mid-tops and our cycle position is a large correction and a long sideways period.

A lower high for each mid-top is also standard, which should be under formation currently.

A 20% correction and immediate rally do with cycle timing or data.

For now, I am watching and waiting for price to develop to make conclusions and expecting a lower high to form as usual.

I continue to hold all of my coins for the cycle.

No #Bitcoin    cycle has ever escaped a retest of the 150% long-term holder support line.

Every cross above, including the 2020 black swan recovery retested the line as support.

This tells us according to this metric, the price needs to be around $31,300.

The main argument against any further corrections is that ETF buying pressure will hold up prices.

It's true that we've never seen ETF inflow before, so we can only wait and watch to see the effects it will have.

In the event of a retest of this support, it should be looked at as a buying opportunity for those who need it.

People desperately want this time to be different for #Bitcoin   , so they can get "rich" as fast as possible.

While I don't subscribe to that idea, and I remain focused on a cycle top late 2025, I wanted to show an interesting piece of data that does say something different.

Early in every cycle, the amount of active coins that have been held for 2-3 years rises exponentially.

Usually, a little over halfway through the cycle, this group declines rapidly.

What we see after is a time frame for the cycle top, which has been between 1 year and 1 year 6 months after the fact.

The event has clearly occurred, where the data pinnacles and starts the massive decline.

Does this one piece of data suggest that we could see the cycle top as soon as late this year?

Cycle timing disagrees, but always interesting to look at different perspectives.