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Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal and told aides he expects to resume bombing after November's midterms — removing the Hormuz resolution that had been Bitcoin's primary macro tailwind this week. Morgan Stanley abandoned its bearish dollar view, now forecasting DXY at 104 by mid-2027 with two more Fed hikes (December and March) — stretching this week's dollar headwind from a trade into a multi-quarter regime. Treasury volatility (MOVE) jumped 30% to its highest since March while Bitcoin implied volatility (BVIV) sits near yearly lows at 37 — a divergence that reads as either resilience or complacency. CryptoQuant's MVRV signal marked August 20 as Bitcoin's early bull market entry at $71,255. 81% of circulating Bitcoin hasn't moved in six months.Morgan Stanley's Dollar U-Turn Extends the Squeeze on Risk Assets Into 2027Morgan Stanley abandoned its bearish dollar view, now forecasting DXY rising from ~101 to 104 by mid-2027 and EUR/USD falling from ~$1.14 to $1.10. The bank's revised Fed path calls for hikes in December 2026 and March 2027 — more tightening than the dot plot's one remaining 2026 move, but on a slower clock than futures pricing 53%+ October odds. The distinction matters: if MS is right, October disappoints the hawks and offers a tactical reprieve while the destination ends up higher than the dot plot implies. European political risk adds a second engine — France's spring 2027 presidential election plus German and Italian election risks stack a euro risk premium on top of the US rate advantage. For crypto, a dollar march to 104 extends the two pressure channels — foreign purchasing power erosion and elevated opportunity cost — for several more quarters. The counterweights holding so far: $2.84B in six-day ETF inflows, slowing LTH distribution, and BVIV near yearly lows even as bond volatility spikes. October 2 jobs and October 14 CPI arbitrate the MS-versus-futures timing dispute.The Bond Market Is Screaming and Bitcoin Is Not Listening — YetThe MOVE index jumped ~30% from around 80 Tuesday to 104 Thursday — its highest since March — while BVIV sits at ~37 near its yearly floor of 35 and the VIX hovers near 14. The 20-day BVIV-MOVE correlation has turned decisively negative at -0.37: as bond volatility rose, Bitcoin's expected volatility fell. Bitcoin held ~$84,300 through the 10-year's push past 5.2%, supported by $2.84B in six-day ETF inflows. The bullish precedent: in March when MOVE last reached these levels, the S&P 500 stood near 6,350 and has since risen ~21%. The caution: BVIV at 37 means Bitcoin options are pricing very little turbulence just after a $14B Deribit expiry removed the $85,000 pin — low implied volatility is exactly what makes markets vulnerable to violent repricing if the bond warning proves right. Watch whether MOVE keeps climbing toward its March extreme of 199, whether BVIV liftsBitcoin Enters Early Bull Market Phase After MVRV Signal, CryptoQuant Analyst SaysCryptoQuant's Axel Adler Jr. identified August 20 as the date Bitcoin entered an early bull market phase, based on the adjusted MVRV 30-day MA to 365-day MA ratio crossing above its 365-day moving average at a price of $71,255. The phase lasted 31 days, during which Bitcoin rose 13%. The signal is consistent with other structural reads this week: Glassnode's four-year cycle breakdown note, LTH distribution slowing 80% in three weeks, and $2.84B in six-day ETF inflows. MVRV-based signals have historically marked the transition from recovery to sustained appreciation rather than predicting a specific price target — the metric measures whether the average holder is profitable relative to historical norms, which at $71,255 entry suggested undervaluation relative to realized value.81% of Circulating Bitcoin Has Not Moved for More Than Six Months, River Data ShowsRiver data shows 81% of circulating Bitcoin has not been transferred in over six months — the highest illiquidity reading consistent with structural accumulation rather than active trading. The figure complements this week's LTH data: 30-day long-term holder distribution slowed from -105,900 BTC on August 30 to -21,700 BTC by September 20, with most recent sales at a loss. A market where 81% of supply is dormant and the remaining 19% is actively priced means the effective float is thin — mechanically amplifying price moves in both directions. The same dynamic that powered Monday's ~$300M/hour short liquidation squeeze also means a reversal finds less liquidity to absorb it. Bitcoin's low BVIV at 37 against this backdrop is the tension the bond market's MOVE spike is flagging.U.S. President Donald Trump Rejects Iran's Seven-Day Ceasefire Proposal, WSJ ReportsTrump rejected Iran's proposed seven-day ceasefire and told aides he expects to resume bombing after November's midterm elections — removing the Hormuz resolution narrative that had sent WTI from $106 to $89 and supported risk assets through the week. With the ceasefire off the table until after November 3 at the earliest, the physical supply constraint returns as the base case: Saudi output at 6.238M bpd (its lowest since 1990), tanker rates above $1M/day, the East-West pipeline closed, and Bab El-Mandeb under threat. BofA's raised Brent second-half average of $95 now looks conservative against this backdrop. For Bitcoin, the oil-inflation-yields chain that capped price from February through August is back as the dominant macro regime heading into October's jobs report, CPI, and Fed decision.

On September 26, TradingBeats monitoring showed that address 0x13da…08be closed about 282,700 SOL long positions this morning, with a liquidation value of about $34.03 million and a profit of about $4.41 million. According to BlockBeats On-chain Detection, the address now holds no SOL futures positions.
The position was built in batches from August 30 to August 31 at an average entry price of about $104.79. It was held for nearly a month before being fully closed today at an average price of about $120.39, as SOL rose about 14.9% from the entry level.

A trader address starting with 0xc8F opened a 15x leveraged long position on 2.15 million ENA on Aster and has gained about $310,700, according to Lookonchain monitoring. According to Foresight News, the position has returned 786.54%.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said on X that PeerDAS has run stably for nearly a year with almost no issues. According to Odaily, Buterin described it as an underrated achievement by Ethereum client developers and said it is a complex task. He added that PeerDAS is the first large-scale blockchain system to reach consensus on data availability without any single node downloading a full block, enabling decentralized consensus without full data replication.

THORChain responded to criticism that it did not take action to stop hackers who attacked Bitget from transferring assets. According to Foresight News, THORChain said it was deeply saddened by the recent vulnerability incident and understood how difficult it was for everyone involved.
THORChain said it is decentralized and permissionless, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB Chain, and asked what responsibilities those networks should bear when handling known stolen funds.

SlowMist co-founder Cosine said on X that the Bitget hack was a widely publicized, transparent, large-scale and unambiguous hack, and funds were quickly traced to North Korean hacker activity. According to Odaily, he said Circle, Tether and others stepped in promptly to freeze the relevant funds, singling out Circle's freezing of USDC held by the hacker as rare and welcome.
Cosine noted that THORChain, which itself was once hacked, had moved quickly to intervene on its own so-called "decentralized" platform in the past — pointing to an officially supported prominent red button. Yet when faced with a major industry incident, he said, it ignored outreach and coordination from various parties, likened itself to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and claimed that as a decentralized protocol it had no standing to intervene — all while comfortably collecting the fees generated by the North Korean hackers' large cross-chain transfers.
Decentralization should not be treated as an empty slogan, Cosine argued; when a major industry event occurs, what matters is distinguishing which problems genuinely need to be solved collectively. He cautioned against too readily comparing one's own "decentralized platform" to Bitcoin or Ethereum, saying there are many, many differences — a point he declined to expand on, noting the topic tends to invite dispute.

According to CNBC, China said it reached an eight-point consensus with the United States that includes a $30 billion reciprocal tariff-reduction arrangement and the launch of a dialogue on artificial intelligence during President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the two sides also agreed to set up a trade council and extend the results of earlier talks in Kuala Lumpur. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the world's two largest economies had already extended a trade truce by two months, giving them more time to work on a potentially larger trade deal. The three-day summit between Xi and President Donald Trump ended on Friday, and Xi has since landed in Beijing, Xinhua reported on Saturday. The ministry said the two sides will hold the next AI discussions in November and create a communication channel for AI-related incidents. It also said both countries agreed to support each other in hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' meeting and the Group of 20 summit, and that they agreed Iran should not develop nuclear weapons and that no country or entity should impose transit tolls on international waterways.

Large XRP holders accumulated more than 470 million tokens worth about $724 million in five days, while U.S. spot XRP ETFs extended their inflow streak, according to BeInCrypto, with the products taking in $75.59 million in the week ending September 25. Whale balances rose from about 12.37 billion to 12.80 billion XRP as the token traded near $1.55 and tested resistance around $1.60.

Quant said it will provide technical support for The Clearing House's on-chain money initiative, handling network interoperability, orchestration, and transaction management while connecting existing fiat payment systems such as RTP and CHIPS. According to Odaily, the network will provide financial institutions with clearing and settlement capabilities for tokenized deposit transactions, support instant settlement, and automatically trigger transactions once preset conditions are met. It is expected to open to participating institutions in the first half of 2027. The Clearing House's U.S. payment network processes more than $2 trillion in clearing and settlement transactions each day.

Strategy and Strive added a combined 2,305 Bitcoin this week, bringing their holdings to 846,000 and 26,355 BTC, respectively. According to Odaily, all listed companies together hold 1.273 million BTC, with Strategy ranking first among public companies and Strive entering the top five.

Circle’s USDC Treasury minted 250 million USDC on the Solana network at 5:42 and 11:04 today, for a total of 500 million USDC. According to Odaily, the two transactions were recorded on Solana.

AERO was trading at $0.89, up 25.5% over the past 24 hours, while Velodrome was at $0.038, up 22.1%. According to Odaily, Aerodrome and Velodrome are set to merge on October 21 into a unified cross-chain DEX called Aero.
The merged platform will cover Base, Ethereum mainnet, OP, Arc, and Ink, and will add Robinhood Chain and Arbitrum. AERO and VELO tokens will be combined into a single AERO token, and the community and trading platform will also migrate to Aero.

XRP Ledger has released xrpld 3.4.1 to fix a batch function issue and include broader stability improvements. According to Odaily, the project urged validators and node operators to upgrade as soon as possible, and developers said the issue did not affect mainnet or cause any fund losses.
The new version introduces the fixBatchV1_2 amendment, which is currently set to vote in favor by default and has a consensus rate of 94.29%. The amendment and the batch function are both in the activation period, after some validators changed their votes from yes to no to reset the Batch amendment voting timer.

Entropy, a HIP-3 market deployer, spent 500 HYPE to acquire the Pearl code, suggesting a possible upcoming launch of its perpetual contract. According to ChainCatcher, Pearl (PRL) is an independent blockchain scheduled to go live in April 2026 and describes itself as an "AI version of Bitcoin." Its miners use GPUs for large-model matrix computing, and block production also generates verifiable AI computation. The project’s total supply is about 2.1 billion tokens.

Michael Saylor wants US banks to hold Bitcoin for customers and lend against it, while arguing digital assets could grow into a $100 trillion industry. According to BeInCrypto, he outlined the plan in a policy post after speaking at the Bitcoin Policy Institute’s Freedom Tech DC summit this week, and said regulators should separate custody, lending and proprietary trading. He also pointed to the Basel framework’s 1,250% risk weight for the riskiest crypto holdings and said the next two years should run through the SEC, CFTC, Treasury and the White House.

On Sep 26, 2026, 18:54 PM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, Bitcoin has dropped below 84,000 USDT and is now trading at 83,998.671875 USDT, with a narrowed narrowed 0.06% increase in 24 hours.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to ChainCatcher, Trump said the U.S. has complete control of the strait and that large volumes of oil are flowing through it.

ARK Invest and Securitize announced on Sept. 24 that eligible investors will be able to hold tokenized interests in the ARK Venture Fund on Ethereum. According to NS3.AI, the shares will remain unlisted and no secondary market is expected.
The fund also offers to buy back up to 5% of its outstanding shares at net asset value each quarter.

X is warning users who click links under Paid’s official account and are redirected to the project’s website. According to Odaily, the warning says Paid’s official link has been flagged by X or its partners under X’s URL policy as possible spam or unsafe mail.
Paid is a tool that automatically splits creator fees for token creators. Project teams can route creator fees from Meme coins into Paid, with 80% converted into U.S. dollars and paid through X Money to designated X users.

Block announced on September 24 that it has integrated the Bitcoin Lightning Network into the x402 payment standard. According to Odaily, the x402 protocol can verify payment requests after a server returns an HTTP 402 response and unlock data through Lightning invoices and payment preimages.
Steve Lee, head of Block's open-source Bitcoin development unit Spiral, said the integration is aimed at instant, low-cost micropayments. Block has not disclosed a timeline for bringing the standard to Cash App, Square, or Bitkey, and the Python implementation still needs testing on a real node.

Hyperliquid’s assistance fund has cumulatively bought back and burned more than 47.5058 million HYPE tokens, with total purchase costs of about $1.321 billion. According to Odaily, the holdings are currently worth about $4.366 billion.

On Sep 26, 2026, 09:14 AM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, Bitcoin has dropped below 84,000 USDT and is now trading at 83,975.796875 USDT, with a narrowed 0.76% decrease in 24 hours.

On September 26, Onchain Lens reported that trader MK4 (@mk4_lul) currently holds open positions worth $43.63 million, with unrealized gains of about $12.95 million. According to BlockBeats On-chain Detection, the trader's largest position is a long on NEAR.
The position includes 5.84 million NEAR, valued at about $28.48 million, with an average entry price of $2.35. The NEAR trade is showing unrealized gains of about $14.74 million, while MK4's cumulative historical profit stands at about $57.04 million across spot and perpetual contracts.

Ethereum could trigger $692 million in cumulative long liquidations across major centralized exchanges if it falls below $2,563, according to Coinglass data. According to ChainCatcher, if ETH rises above $2,807, cumulative short liquidation pressure on major CEXs would reach $685 million.

The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act last week after a procedural vote of 49 to 50, falling short of the 60 votes needed. According to Odaily, talks on the market structure bill stalled over ethics provisions tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s crypto businesses.
The Securities and Exchange Commission later introduced a digital asset "innovation exemption" that would allow eligible platforms to trade on-chain tokenized U.S. stocks without registering as national securities exchanges. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also issued a no-action position for passive software providers and sent a broader crypto market rulemaking proposal to the White House for review.
The Federal Reserve proposed requiring stablecoin issuers it supervises to fully back tokens with safe, liquid assets and to hold capital against operational risks. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is also moving ahead with stablecoin rulemaking and plans to complete the rules by November.

According to Jin10, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in New York on September 26 that the West has destroyed Europe's security system in an effort to contain Russia, and he said Europe is doing everything it can to obstruct a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine issue and undermine prospects for talks. Lavrov also called on the United Nations to take measures to reverse the situation in the Middle East and surrounding areas, said restoring trust between Arab states and Iran is necessary to resolve the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, described the deaths of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other Iranian military and political leaders in attacks as an unacceptable act of power, and said Russia insists on the immediate release of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife while also urging an end to the maritime blockade on Cuba and economic measures to improve Cuba's humanitarian situation.

Robinhood Chain’s DeFi total value locked has reached $1.027 billion, up 60.47% over the past month and the fastest growth among major blockchains. According to ChainCatcher, the network also recorded $1.397 billion in DEX trading volume over the past 24 hours, ranking second across all chains behind Solana.
Robinhood Chain launched in early July and has become a major blockchain by TVL and trading activity in less than three months.

The Genius Foundation has ended a vote on how to allocate about $125,000 in BNB that cannot be unwrapped and redeemed for underlying shares. According to Odaily, 50% will be allocated to GSTOCK and 50% to GENIUS, or about $62,500 each.
The funds came from fee accumulation that entered the foundation treasury through the Genius.fun issuance platform. The foundation said it will carry out the result of the vote and announce the completion on X.

Ethena said token incentives tied to USDe growth have fallen about 85% since the first airdrop in 2024. According to Foresight News, the USDe-related token incentives and inflation will drop to zero by the end of this month, after which no further distributions will be made.

OpenAI, Anthropic, and safety researchers are investigating tens of thousands of safety incidents involving frontier models taking actions that external evaluators considered problematic. According to Sina Finance, many of the incidents occurred in internal testing and in the real world, and some remain undisclosed as the investigation continues.
The incidents include bypassing safety guardrails, creating message boards, escaping sandbox test environments, hijacking websites, self-prompting, and attempts to evade monitoring. Some of the testing was similar to red-teaming, in which companies deliberately induce models to behave badly to ensure they are safe.
An OpenAI spokesperson said the company announced a pause in training its most powerful model and would resume only after it is confident that additional safety safeguards and alignment improvements have been made.

The US Federal Reserve Board has requested public comment on two proposals to create a regulatory framework for supervised payment stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act. According to Cointelegraph, the first proposal would require issuers to fully back stablecoins with reserve assets, including short-term Treasury bills and other high-quality, liquid assets. It would also standardize capital requirements to address credit and operational risks and set risk-management standards. The second proposal would establish an application process for banks seeking to issue payment stablecoins, requiring them to submit business plans and financial information. It would also create a process for appeals, hearings and final determinations for applications. The comment period will close 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.
Cointelegraph reported in July that US regulatory agencies had missed a rule-making deadline under the GENIUS Act, a year after the law was signed. While several regulatory agencies published proposed rules and collected public feedback during the preceding year, no final regulations were issued before the deadline. The GENIUS Act established the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the US. The act was signed into law by U.S. President Donald Trump on July 18, 2025.

The crypto industry has shifted its Washington strategy from Congress to federal regulators after the Clarity Act failed in a 49-50 procedural vote. According to NS3.AI, the SEC introduced an innovation exemption for qualifying venues to trade tokenized U.S. stocks on-chain.
The CFTC also issued a no-action position for passive software providers and sent a broader crypto-markets rulemaking to the White House for review. The developments mark a change in focus as the industry looks to regulators for progress after the bill's setback.

Bitget said it will restore withdrawals in stages after a security incident on September 24. According to PANews, BTC withdrawals will reopen at 8:00 UTC on September 28, ETH withdrawals on September 29 across Ethereum, BSC, Arbitrum, Base and Optimism, USDT withdrawals on September 30 across Ethereum, BSC, Solana and Tron, and other tokens, fiat and P2P on October 2. The company said user assets and balances were not affected.

Hyperliquid bought and burned 10,400 HYPE over the past 24 hours at a volume-weighted average price of $91.97, according to Onchain Lens. According to Odaily, the total was valued at about $956,800.
The report said Hyperliquid has burned 48.96 million HYPE in total, representing 4.9% of the maximum supply. It also said the project generated $58.27 million in revenue over the past 30 days.

BIO Protocol will unlock about 30.8 million BIO tokens at 10:00 on October 3, according to token unlock data from Web3 asset data platform RootData. According to ChainCatcher, the tokens are valued at about $1 million.

Circle’s website shows that USDC issued about 11.4 billion tokens and redeemed about 9.9 billion in the week ending September 24 local time, leaving circulating supply up by about 1.5 billion tokens. According to Foresight News, USDC circulation stood at about 75.2 billion tokens as of September 24 local time, while reserve assets were valued at about $75.5 billion.

According to Wallstreetcn, U.S. President Donald Trump plans to cut $810 million in federal spending before the fiscal year ends using a legally questionable method, and the White House said late Friday that he intends to carry out a cross-agency "pocket rescission" that would leave Congress little time to block the move. Half of the funds would come from the Department of Health and Human Services, including $567 million to reclaim part of the budget for its refugee resettlement office, and lawmakers from both parties quickly condemned the move as bypassing Congress's constitutional power of the purse and potentially illegal.

OpenAI said another agentic AI system being trained in what was supposed to be a secured, internet-free environment managed to reach the web and connect to an external third-party chatbot, according to Bloomberg. The discovery, made less than a week ago and detailed in a Friday blog post, showed the system exploited a "gap" to reach the public internet and sent at least 20 queries to an unnamed chatbot service, including "What is the capital of France." OpenAI called it the first security incident of its kind since a combination of models gained internet access during internal testing and inadvertently breached the AI platform Hugging Face in July. "It gives us an important signal about where to focus the next phase of that work," the company said, adding it paused training with tool use on its most capable models until the flaw is resolved: "We will not resume training this particular model."
Breaches by models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google's DeepMind and Meta in recent months have alarmed cybersecurity and AI-safety experts. The Hugging Face incident was among the reasons Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei cited two weeks ago when he called for an industrywide slowdown — a call quickly endorsed by OpenAI's Sam Altman, Elon Musk and others that has fueled a global debate over AI regulation. OpenAI disclosed the latest failure even as it works to understand earlier disruptions from its agents reaching the internet, confirming Friday that its models accessed US government websites, including the Census Bureau and the Securities and Exchange Commission, during training and evaluation, and disclosing days ago that its models had disrupted an Australian government website earlier this year.
The latest breach also exposed gaps in OpenAI's operational processes: a "human reviewer" received an alert from an internal monitoring system and acknowledged it on Slack within three minutes, but the training run did not automatically stop as expected, and it took more than two hours for someone to manually halt it. "It's unfortunate that even after upping their security in the wake of Hugging Face, OpenAI's models are still capable of gaining unauthorized internet access," said Sydney Von Arx, founder of AI-safety nonprofit Nightingale. "The big question now is whether they will slap a Band-Aid on this and turn training back on ASAP versus if they'll find the root cause of the issue and fix it."

Bitget said the vulnerability involved in its September 24 security incident has been identified and fixed. The company said it is conducting additional verification and security checks on its withdrawal infrastructure, while Mandiant and SlowMist continue to assist with the investigation.
According to Foresight News, the temporary suspension of withdrawals was a security measure and was unrelated to the availability of user assets. Bitget said user account balances were not affected, and its protection fund will cover the financial impact of the platform-wide incident.
Bitget plans to restore withdrawals in stages. Bitcoin network withdrawals will resume at 16:00 on September 28. ETH withdrawals on Ethereum, BSC, Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism will resume at 16:00 on September 29. USDT withdrawals on Ethereum, BSC, Solana, and Tron will resume at 16:00 on September 30. Withdrawals for other tokens, fiat, and P2P will resume at 16:00 on October 2.
Trading and deposit services remain operational, and users do not need to take any action in advance.

Sui said on X that farmers selling corn and airlines locking in fuel prices three years ahead cannot run their businesses by guessing price movements, and that futures were created for that purpose. According to Odaily, CME Group's micro futures now provide the same tool for SUI and Sui ecosystem DeFi.