On this chart, the S&P 500 has clearly outperformed global liquidity in recent months: prices have risen faster than the available money supply. This means that the market is already anticipating a lot of good news (rate cuts, growth, profits).
In short: Wall Street is running ahead of the monetary tap. If liquidity catches up, the rise is justified. If it slows down, the market can quickly find itself a bit out of breath.
The S&P 500 has risen by +3%, and the Nasdaq by nearly +5% this week โ and up double digits from recent lows. With enthusiasm for AI intensifying and tensions starting to ease, a handful of mega-cap names are doing most of the heavy lifting across the market.
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Here is how OpenAI's shares are currently distributed. The largest investor is Microsoft, which has injected about 13 billion dollars into the company since 2019. $MSFTon