老朝奉研究院院长
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老朝奉研究院院长
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老朝奉研究院
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BullishThe Old Dynasty Research Institute is officially open to the public, welcome everyone to follow us.
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Old Dynasty Research Institute: Insight into cycles, discover value.
Trading fee 20% off with invite code: LCFYJY DM to join the VIP group.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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#BTC☀ The Federal Reserve's interest rate has landed, and the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline early this morning! Mainstream currencies such as BNB, ETH, and SOL have all been downgraded by more than 5 points in the mid-term. Trump said on social media that he was panicking and wrong again
BNB/USDT Daily Analysis
$BNB is currently hovering around $590. From the daily candlestick structure, after spiking to $740, it faced a significant pullback, forming a clear downtrend in the short term. The price is currently oscillating in the $560-$600 range, with bulls and bears battling over critical support. Given today's market performance, BNB is temporarily following $BTC and $ETH for a corrective rebound, but overall, it still hasn't shaken off the bearish trend.
Key Support Levels:
🔹 $580 (short-term support)
🔹 $560 (strong support)
🔹 $540 (extreme support)
Key Resistance Levels:
🔸 $600 (short-term resistance)
🔸 $620 (important resistance)
🔸 $650 (trend reversal confirmation level)
Price Prediction:
If BNB can gain volume and hold above $600, it might further challenge the $620-$650 zone; if it breaks below $580, we need to be cautious of another dip to the $560 support. Currently, it leans towards a "post-drop consolidation recovery" phase, and a true reversal requires a solid hold above $650.
In a nutshell:
📈 $580 is the defensive line, $600 is the battleground for bulls and bears, and $650 determines whether BNB can regain a strong upward trend. 🚀
$BNB is currently hovering around $590. From the daily candlestick structure, after spiking to $740, it faced a significant pullback, forming a clear downtrend in the short term. The price is currently oscillating in the $560-$600 range, with bulls and bears battling over critical support. Given today's market performance, BNB is temporarily following $BTC and $ETH for a corrective rebound, but overall, it still hasn't shaken off the bearish trend.
Key Support Levels:
🔹 $580 (short-term support)
🔹 $560 (strong support)
🔹 $540 (extreme support)
Key Resistance Levels:
🔸 $600 (short-term resistance)
🔸 $620 (important resistance)
🔸 $650 (trend reversal confirmation level)
Price Prediction:
If BNB can gain volume and hold above $600, it might further challenge the $620-$650 zone; if it breaks below $580, we need to be cautious of another dip to the $560 support. Currently, it leans towards a "post-drop consolidation recovery" phase, and a true reversal requires a solid hold above $650.
In a nutshell:
📈 $580 is the defensive line, $600 is the battleground for bulls and bears, and $650 determines whether BNB can regain a strong upward trend. 🚀
$ETH ETH/USDT Daily Analysis
$ETH is currently hovering around $1630, clearly in a bearish trend. After breaking the crucial support at $2000, it's seen a series of volume-driven drops; right now, we're just witnessing a technical rebound after an oversold condition, with no trend reversal in sight yet. The overall market sentiment is weak, and ETH is still facing significant selling pressure.
Key support levels:
First support: $1600
Strong support: $1500-1550
Extreme support: $1400
Key resistance levels:
First resistance: $1700
Strong resistance: $1800
Trend reversal confirmation level: $2000
Market outlook:
If ETH can hold above $1600 and break through $1700 with volume, we could see a rebound testing the $1800 zone; however, if it breaks below $1600 again, it’s likely to continue downward towards the $1500 area seeking support. The current daily structure remains a "rebound repair within a downtrend"; until we reclaim $1800, it's advisable to stay bearish.
In summary:
$1600 determines short-term survival, $1700 dictates the rebound strength, and $1800 decides whether ETH can kick off a real reversal trend.
$ETH is currently hovering around $1630, clearly in a bearish trend. After breaking the crucial support at $2000, it's seen a series of volume-driven drops; right now, we're just witnessing a technical rebound after an oversold condition, with no trend reversal in sight yet. The overall market sentiment is weak, and ETH is still facing significant selling pressure.
Key support levels:
First support: $1600
Strong support: $1500-1550
Extreme support: $1400
Key resistance levels:
First resistance: $1700
Strong resistance: $1800
Trend reversal confirmation level: $2000
Market outlook:
If ETH can hold above $1600 and break through $1700 with volume, we could see a rebound testing the $1800 zone; however, if it breaks below $1600 again, it’s likely to continue downward towards the $1500 area seeking support. The current daily structure remains a "rebound repair within a downtrend"; until we reclaim $1800, it's advisable to stay bearish.
In summary:
$1600 determines short-term survival, $1700 dictates the rebound strength, and $1800 decides whether ETH can kick off a real reversal trend.
$BTC Short-Term Analysis: $63,000 as the Bull-Bear Divide, What's Next?
As of now, the price of $BTC is around $63,250, showing a consolidation structure over the past 24 hours.
From the charts, the market is undergoing a classic "repair rally after a drop."
1. Technical Analysis
From the 24-hour candlestick chart:
✅ Intraday low tested around $62,500
✅ Multiple tests of the $62,000-$62,500 support zone followed by a successful rebound
✅ Currently back above the $63,000 psychological level
Note:
There is clear buying support around the $62,500 area.
The market hasn't formed panic selling in the short term; instead, it's seeing a shift in positions.
2. Current Market Structure
Currently, $BTC is in:
Big drop → Consolidation → Confirmed rebound
The second phase of three.
From a trend perspective:
First resistance level
$63,500-$64,000
This is today’s high point.
If there's a volume breakout:
We might challenge $65,000.
Second resistance level
$65,000-$66,000
This is where a lot of trapped positions are concentrated.
Expect significant selling pressure here.
Core support level
$62,500
If it breaks:
The market might retest
$61,000
Or even the $60,000 psychological level.
3. Funding Observations
The biggest bearish factor in the recent market:
ETF funds continue to flow out
Institutional funds remain cautious.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant net outflows lately, putting pressure on the market.
However, it’s worth noting that:
Long-term institutions are still accumulating
Including Strategy and other institutions have recently restarted their BTC accumulation plans.
Large institutional holdings are continuously expanding.
This means:
Short-term sentiment is weak,
But long-term funds are not leaving the market.
4. My Viewpoint
In the next 24-72 hours, key focus:
Bullish conditions
BTC holding above $63,500
Volume increasing
Target:
➡️ $65,000
➡️ $67,000
Bearish conditions
Breaking below $62,500
And failing to recover for 4 hours
Target:
➡️ $61,000
➡️ $60,000
➡️ $58,000
Trading Strategy
Current Phase:
❌ Not recommended to chase the price up
❌ Not recommended to go all in
✅ Wait for a pullback in the $63,000-$62,500 range to buy low
✅ Strictly control leverage
✅ Keeping 30-50% position size is the safest bet
Summary
BTC is still in a consolidation phase.
$62,500 is the short-term lifeline,
$64,000 is the key level for a bullish counterattack.
As of now, the price of $BTC is around $63,250, showing a consolidation structure over the past 24 hours.
From the charts, the market is undergoing a classic "repair rally after a drop."
1. Technical Analysis
From the 24-hour candlestick chart:
✅ Intraday low tested around $62,500
✅ Multiple tests of the $62,000-$62,500 support zone followed by a successful rebound
✅ Currently back above the $63,000 psychological level
Note:
There is clear buying support around the $62,500 area.
The market hasn't formed panic selling in the short term; instead, it's seeing a shift in positions.
2. Current Market Structure
Currently, $BTC is in:
Big drop → Consolidation → Confirmed rebound
The second phase of three.
From a trend perspective:
First resistance level
$63,500-$64,000
This is today’s high point.
If there's a volume breakout:
We might challenge $65,000.
Second resistance level
$65,000-$66,000
This is where a lot of trapped positions are concentrated.
Expect significant selling pressure here.
Core support level
$62,500
If it breaks:
The market might retest
$61,000
Or even the $60,000 psychological level.
3. Funding Observations
The biggest bearish factor in the recent market:
ETF funds continue to flow out
Institutional funds remain cautious.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant net outflows lately, putting pressure on the market.
However, it’s worth noting that:
Long-term institutions are still accumulating
Including Strategy and other institutions have recently restarted their BTC accumulation plans.
Large institutional holdings are continuously expanding.
This means:
Short-term sentiment is weak,
But long-term funds are not leaving the market.
4. My Viewpoint
In the next 24-72 hours, key focus:
Bullish conditions
BTC holding above $63,500
Volume increasing
Target:
➡️ $65,000
➡️ $67,000
Bearish conditions
Breaking below $62,500
And failing to recover for 4 hours
Target:
➡️ $61,000
➡️ $60,000
➡️ $58,000
Trading Strategy
Current Phase:
❌ Not recommended to chase the price up
❌ Not recommended to go all in
✅ Wait for a pullback in the $63,000-$62,500 range to buy low
✅ Strictly control leverage
✅ Keeping 30-50% position size is the safest bet
Summary
BTC is still in a consolidation phase.
$62,500 is the short-term lifeline,
$64,000 is the key level for a bullish counterattack.
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