The market has corrected as scheduled. There is no market that only rises but never falls. In bull markets, there are often corrections, declines and deleveraging. The purpose of squatting is to jump higher, and to wash away is healthier.

One after another, some friends ask how to join the organization. There is no membership fee here. If you make money, you can send red envelopes to group friends. You can just stay in the group for any reason.

Going in now, I would recommend buying some currencies and prices at the bottom. If you copy it, the subsequent rebound will soon double.

Usually, according to the market conditions, we will provide market analysis for your reference. Note that this is just a reference, and there is no guarantee that you will always make money. I think anyone's analysis and suggestions are only references. The final decision-making and operation execution still have to be made by yourself.

Weibo-bit geek

Today, let's talk about a commonplace but enduring question in the cryptocurrency circle. What is a contract?
(ps All the opinions below represent only personal subjective views, and there is no absolute right or wrong)

For me, the contract is a game that is doomed to lose, because from a long-term perspective, there is only one winner in this game, and that is the casino (exchange).

After 312, it was my first time to "speculate in cryptocurrencies" in a real sense. The cryptocurrency circle is very far away from me, but I think BTC at $4,000 and ETH at $100 are very cheap, so I just bought them. At that time, I thought it was normal.

As the price of the currency rose, my self-confidence and greed continued to expand. At that time, someone helped me open Pandora's box and taught me to buy contracts for the first time. "Isn't the contract just about opening the size?" I thought so at that time. Ethereum was only $100 for me, and it couldn't be cheaper to gamble. I joined a bunch of so-called trading groups, and this teacher and that teacher shared the points every day. It seemed very simple to make money, until a needle appeared by chance and it was instantly cleared.

The first time you got liquidated is more like a daze than a pain. Your account suddenly goes to zero, and you don’t realize what happened.

At that moment, I understood that I was just a rookie, and the teachers were just rookies who were better at talking than me. In this game, everyone will win, but it is easier to lose. Only the exchange that collects the handling fee is the only winner.

Contracts and domestic violence have one thing in common, there are only 0 times and countless times. Liquidation does not mean learning, it only means temporarily quitting gambling.

Shorting $LUNA is the most and fastest time I made in the contract. I opened a short at 70 and closed it at 5 yuan. The bear market has just begun, and I have made a lot of money, enough for me to live a happy, stable and lazy life. "But the script will never be so smooth." FTX's thunderbolt, contract bottoming, FTT's ending is only one, zero.

At that moment, I woke up from my dream. Do you want to be a gambler forever? Only when you take the money off the table, you can really earn it. Otherwise, you will just repeat your fate, earning and losing, bull and bear markets alternate, and you will always be a gambler.

I really stepped off the table. Now I think about it and I am very proud of myself. It took me a moment to learn how to gamble, but it took me 2 years to step off the table.

Since the beginning of this round of bull market, I have achieved 80% spot trading and 20% wild trading. I have also done some contract operations, but they are all small positions with quick entry and exit.

"Today's contract is actually the same as buying meme for me. It's just a lottery position with a small bet for a big win, that's all."

Some people will say: If you manage your positions well and strictly stop losses, contracts can actually be very safe. I admit that he is partially right, but contracts are as addictive as white powder. You will only open bigger and bigger orders. You will only stop when it explodes. Besides, in extreme market conditions, the stop loss point is sometimes not reached, and the position has disappeared.

I hope everyone will look at contracts rationally. If you are not the chosen one, don't indulge in contracts, don't be greedy, and don't be unwilling.

One experience:

Narrative leaders do not need valuation,
and benchmarks can be infinitely overvalued in a bull market.

3x's pepe was exposed last night

Cherish life and stay away from leverage!

The Shanzhai collapsed across the board, and the cryptocurrency market was bleak. Most people should be sad at the moment. I just casually swiped a few tweets and saw many people crying. But I was very happy, because the decline is an opportunity!

After the big V bloggers used KDJ, MACD, BOLL, Fibonacci and other indicators for analysis, many people may find that the prospects of the cryptocurrency market are bleak. However, I want to tell you that this is a good time for us to firmly bullish, cover positions, and hold chips. I know that at this time, some people will definitely start to scold me, but this is a good time for me to distinguish between black fans and iron fans and see who really supports me. At the same time, I want to tell those firm fans and followers not to cut meat, cover positions if there are positions, and hold the chips in their hands. Looking back next week, you will find that your positions are rising rapidly. For those who have no faith, go and read my previous articles. The cryptocurrency market is not suitable for those who have no cognition, just want to get rich overnight, and cannot bear risks.

Risks and benefits coexist. Only by daring to take risks can you get greater benefits. Today is April 13th, there is still time. The process is not important, what is important is the result.

Most of the time when you are trading in cryptocurrencies is garbage time. It is best to lie still during the garbage time of trading. The harder you work, the more you lose.

Now is garbage time. What you should buy has been bought. It is normal to have floating losses. Who can buy at the lowest point/sell at the highest point? Let yourself go, read a book, and go downstairs to wash your feet.

Because of the repeated inflation data in the past two days, more and more people are beginning to doubt whether the Fed will not release water...

We are on a train without brakes/continuous acceleration. No matter what happens on the train, as long as the train does not overturn, the train will rush forward and cannot stop. The amount of water must increase geometrically, and the soaring asset prices will not stop either.

Does the Fed/central bank really care about inflation? They are more concerned about whether the train will overturn. Careful students can think about it: Why did Yellen complain about China's overcapacity and low prices when she came to China? Isn't this conducive to reducing inflation? Think about it.

MTL’s four-hour rebound is so strong, do you want to do something?

Other copycats have fallen like shit, but #aergo has not fallen but increased by 75%👍

In the face of extreme market conditions, we must:

1. Stay calm and don't blindly follow the trend. When the market fluctuates violently, investors need to keep a cool head and not be swayed by the panic of the market. Believe in your own judgment and stick to your investment strategy.

2. Reduce positions appropriately to reduce position risks. When there are obvious signs of a decline in the market, appropriate reduction of positions can reduce position risks and avoid further losses. At the same time, be careful not to reduce positions excessively, so as not to miss the opportunity for a market rebound.

3. Pay attention to high-quality projects and do a good job of risk diversification. In the process of market adjustment, some high-quality projects are often mistakenly killed. At this time, paying attention to and deploying these projects may obtain better returns. At the same time, doing a good job of risk diversification is also an important means to reduce investment risks. Risk diversification can be achieved by configuring cryptocurrencies of different sectors and different market values.

4. Wait for the opportunity and don't rush to buy the bottom. At this time, you can make a fixed investment. Although there is often a rebound after a sharp decline in the market, it is easy to be trapped if you rush to buy the bottom. Therefore, it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before considering entry operations, and to control the amount of each position to avoid entering the market with a full position at one time.

5. Learn to accept losses and maintain an optimistic attitude. Investing in cryptocurrencies itself involves certain risks, and losses are an inevitable part of the investment process. When encountering losses, learn to accept reality and do not make decisions overly pessimistically or emotionally. Believe that the market will pick up, and maintaining a positive and optimistic attitude will help us better cope with market challenges.

In short, in the face of a complex and changing market environment, we need to continue to learn and accumulate experience, and improve our investment literacy and psychological quality. Only in this way can we go further and more steadily on the road of investment.

In the face of the current market situation, we need to conduct a comprehensive analysis from both the macro and micro levels.

From a macro perspective, the market's decline is mainly affected by three factors:

1. Fear caused by the release of halving benefits: Bitcoin halving is usually seen as a long-term positive factor, but the market tends to overreact to it in the short term. Since the market has fully anticipated the halving benefits, when the benefits are realized, some investors choose to take profits, which triggers a market decline.

2. Economic data show that inflation is too high: Recent economic data show that inflation pressure has increased, which may make the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in advance or reduce the scale of bond purchases to cope with inflationary pressure. This monetary policy uncertainty has caused a certain impact on market sentiment, leading to capital outflows from the market, further exacerbating the market's decline.

3. Geopolitical tensions: The escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel has caused market concerns. In this case, investors tend to choose safe-haven assets and leave risky assets such as cryptocurrencies aside, leading to a market decline.

Secondly, from a micro perspective, the fundamentals and market performance of altcoins are more fragile than those of mainstream currencies. When the market suffers a sharp decline, altcoins tend to become the preferred target of capital selling, causing their prices to fall sharply.

Dry goods:

1. The price of the currency enters a stable upward channel. Each callback is a temporary stop, which is a good opportunity for us to get on the bus. There is no currency that keeps rising. The callback is like a spring compression, in order to jump higher.

2. If it enters a certain downward channel, any rebound is an opportunity to get off the bus. Once the trend goes bad, it may take more than half a year to rise again. Don't resist the order and don't waste your time.

3. The short-term rise and fall depends on emotions and fundamentals. Don't stare at the three melons and two dates in the long run. Just like the current market sentiment is in place, the fundamentals determine the length and width of the rise.

4. The bottom judged by humans is basically not the bottom, but the halfway point. The formation of the real bottom depends on emotions and funds. So don't blindly buy the bottom. Often 9 out of 10 copies are trapped.

5. Don't rely too much on good news. The real market is to play with expectations. Many retail investors like to listen to news to speculate on coins, but most of what you hear is what others want you to hear. Even if it is true, you don't know how many hands have passed. When you know it, the market is almost over.

6. Do not increase leverage at will. This will not increase your winning rate. Once you lose money, the value will be infinitely magnified. Do not increase your own risks.

Half a year's market trend was gone in one night, hahahaha

When the CPI data came out two days ago, we also talked about the expectation that the US stock market would have a mid-level adjustment, similar to the trend of the US stock market from September to October 2023. But it does not mean that the market has turned bearish. The current stagnation or weakness of the market is not due to the weakening of the numerator factors such as economic recession, sharp reduction in corporate profits, or the falsification of the AI ​​main line, but because the expectation of interest rate cuts has greatly weakened, affecting the denominator. Simply put, it is to kill valuations, but it has not reached the level of killing performance and logic.

We have also talked about the lifeline of the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5%. If it exceeds 5%, not only the market can't bear it, but also the Federal Reserve and the Treasury can't bear it. This year, it is estimated that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will come out to rescue the market if the 10-year US Treasury yield does not reach 5%.

When the valuation is killed and returns to a relatively reasonable state, corporate financial reports continue to be strong, and new things come out in the AI ​​main line, such as gpt5, sora2, etc., in order to save the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve directors have changed their recent tough tone and started to soften, then the momentum can return.

This month, Bitcoin has been basically washed out every day, and the price has been fluctuating between 60,000 and 73,000, with an amplitude of about 20%. This is an obvious feature of each halving month. The decline of small coins is a bit exaggerated, and many have fallen back to the price before the bull market started. Generally, BTC falls by 1%, ETH falls by 2%, and altcoins fall by more than 3%. Therefore, in order to withstand the decline, it is best for speculators to use half of their positions to store Bitcoin, and allocate the rest of their positions to other mainstream currencies such as ETH, SOL, BNB, etc.

Value coins have fallen badly, and the liquidation data is a bit scary.
2.3 billion US dollars, 157,236 users have been liquidated

Equivalent to the market value of four runestones.

In addition, what happened to bitmex? It accounts for 77.67%?

Bitcoin players don’t feel it deeply,
Runestone even rose against the trend.

Recently, I was thinking that Binance has been listing coins crazily recently, and the liquidity in the platform has been decreasing and diluted. Unless the old coins are flooded with money, it is difficult to rise.

24h liquidation, 90% of the bulls are almost dead

The copycats are even worse, they died right on the spot!

Market Analysis

$BTC : Bitcoin continues to fluctuate and adjust at a high level. From the market point of view, a new wave of upward attack is about to begin. The short-term adjustment is just like this. Then, with the support of Wall Street, the market will continue to attack. With the release of the runes protocol, the Bitcoin ecosystem will be very rich. There will be more fun things to come out at that time. If you participate in it at the first time, you will definitely make money. Now learn what runes are and why they are so popular? Then you will know how to participate~

$ETH: ETH is weak again today. Like other cottages, it has been sucked by BTC. The exchange rate against BTC has also fallen below 0.05. It can be seen that the current market incremental funds are not enough. Large funds are focused on BTC before halving. However, I think this blood-sucking state will change after halving. ETH has been suppressed for a long time during this period. It may usher in a strong period in the next few weeks. After all, the big cake has broken several new highs. ETH is still far from the previous high of 4800, so the expected space is larger.

Although the price of bitcoin in the altcoin market has stabilized above 70,000, the confidence in the altcoin market is obviously insufficient, and the price feels like it is being sucked dry. I looked at the top 100 projects on coingecko, and basically all of them fell. Only a small number of altcoins with strong benefits rose.

For example, $ondo in the RWA track tested converting BlackRock's token fund $buidl into USDC last night;

alt_layer opened a new Xterio Launchpool;

$bnb rose because of the new round of launchpool OmniFDN;

$auction also rose because its new project bouncebit received investment from binance labs. Most of the other altcoins have very bad trends.

There was also new news on Ethereum last night. JPMorgan Chase reiterated that the probability of Ethereum spot ETF being approved in May is still no more than 50%. However, he also added that if the SEC does not approve it, then at least one institution will file a lawsuit against the SEC, and the SEC will lose the lawsuit. In this case, the story of Grayscale suing the SEC last year will be repeated, and the Ethereum ETF will eventually be approved.

In addition, there will be $800 million worth of ETH options delivered this afternoon. The biggest pain point is $3,425. According to past experience, the price will move towards the biggest pain point before delivery, so today 3,500 points still need to bear some pressure.

At present, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen below 0.05 again. This may still be related to BTC being at the halving node. I personally think that after the halving, ETH will most likely quickly stand above 0.05 or even 0.055. In the medium term, I think ETH may be underestimated.

The US released the March PPI data last night, and the results were lower than expected both year-on-year and month-on-month. This data can be regarded as a compensation for the CPI data the night before. The lower than expected figure indicates that the rebound in US inflation is limited, especially the inflation growth rate of services and commodities. From the data point of view, it is definitely positive, which can be seen from the collective rebound of US stocks last night. In addition, several Fed officials spoke last night. In summary, it is a foregone conclusion that there will be no interest rate cuts in the near future, but there is a high probability that there will be interest rate cuts this year. Subsequently, the two major investment banks, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, also gave their latest forecasts. They believe that there will only be one interest rate cut in December this year. Deutsche Bank is more pessimistic, saying that if future inflation data continues to disappoint, or the US election results lead to the emergence of fiscal policies that exacerbate inflation, then the Fed will not cut interest rates this year or in 2025. At present, the situation of various institutions is that Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays predict one interest rate cut, and Goldman Sachs predicts two interest rate cuts.

The European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision last night, maintaining the current interest rate, but ECB President Lagarde's speech after the meeting was still very dovish, saying that it would not wait until every inflation item returned to 2% before cutting interest rates. Of course, Powell has said something similar before. I think the key to interest rate cuts, whether in Europe or the United States, depends on inflation data.