Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).

At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.

On January 13, 2017, the green column dropped to 15.1%;
On December 10, 2020, the green column dropped to 15%;
Currently, the green column has dropped to 15%

It is worth mentioning that the BTC price reached near the top of the previous bull market on these three occasions.

The black line above the figure is the BTC price; the green column below is the percentage of BTC on the chain that has not been moved for 2-3 years. BTC of different ages must be weighted by the total purchase cost market value (Realized Cap) of BTC of that age to eliminate the problem of too large a proportion of ancient whale chips now.

In January 2024, BTC fell to a minimum of $38,500, and the difference of 500 dollars in the price of coins would reach the average cost price of short-term holders on the chain (blue line $38,000);

The current wave of BTC fell to a minimum of $59,600, and the difference of 800 dollars in the price of coins would reach the average cost price of short-term holders on the chain (blue line $58,800).

The information came in one after another, but the drastic changes happened silently.

In January 24, BTC fell to a minimum of $38k, and the overall short-term holders of BTC chain still made a profit of 1.8%;
The current wave of BTC fell to a minimum of $59k, and the overall short-term holders of BTC chain still made a profit of 2.2%

The on-chain indicator in the figure is the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) of BTC short-term holders, that is, the total market value of chips of short-term holders on the BTC chain (holding coins <span days)/total purchase cost of chips.

In January 24, the lowest indicator was 1.018, that is, the overall short-term holders on the chain still made a profit of 1.8%;
The lowest indicator in this wave was 1.022, that is, the overall short-term holders on the chain still made a profit of 2.2%

Fortunately, the current long-term BTC holders still maintain the trend of chip distribution, which may ensure that there is still good room for imagination in the future bull market.

The black line in the figure is the BTC price; the orange line on-chain indicator is the proportion of chips held by long-term BTC holders (holding coins on the chain for >155 days) (BTC that has not been moved on the chain for >7 years is considered to be long-term dormant or lost and excluded from the calculation). When this indicator maintains a downward trend, it means that long-term BTC holders maintain a distribution trend.

20 years later

From July to December 2020, BTC stayed in stage ③ for 144 days;
From December 2023 to now, BTC has stayed in stage ③ for 137 days.

The figure shows a set of BTC top and bottom two-cycle price models. The model is based on Coin Days Destroyed, Liquid Supply and Realized Price. It is designed through an exclusive algorithm and uses 5 lines and 4 stages to fully divide the historical price from the top to the bottom.

In addition, currently:
Line5: $124080
Line4: $78552
Line3: $50098
Line2: $33025
Line1: $21643

The recent market is slightly stagnant, and so are the on-chain indicators. We are crossing the river by feeling the stones...🧘‍♂️

The gray line in the figure is the BTC price; the orange line on-chain indicator is BTC: MVRV. In addition, two nearly infinite non-intersecting function curves, e^-x and ln(x), are used to fit the historical peaks and bottoms of BTC.

Note: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) refers to the total market value of all BTC on the chain/the total market value of the purchase cost, that is, the average market value/cost of each chip on the chain.

Currently, BTC is retreating towards the average cost price of short-term holders (blue line) 😎

On March 20, 2024, the BTC price fell to $60,700 in the short term, and the on-chain indicator fell to 1.133 at the same time;
On April 2, 2024, the BTC price fell to $64,500 in the short term, and the on-chain indicator fell to 1.127 at the same time;
Currently (hourly data), the BTC price fell to $65,000 in the short term, and the on-chain indicator fell to 1.125 at the same time.

The on-chain indicator in the figure is the BTC short-term holder MVRV, the green line is the part >1, and the red line is the part <1.

Note: BTC short-term holder MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) refers to the ratio of the current total market value of BTC held by BTC short-term holders (on-chain holdings <span days) to the total market value of the cost calculated based on these BTC purchase prices, that is, the market value of BTC short-term holders/cost.

After the BTC price reached its all-time high in 2017, the on-chain indicator fell back to a minimum of 1.09;
After the BTC price reached its all-time high in 2020, the on-chain indicator fell back to a minimum of 3.08;
After the BTC price reached its all-time high in 2024, the on-chain indicator has currently fallen back to a minimum of 1.73.

The upper black line in the figure is the BTC price; the lower on-chain indicator is the ratio of the number of BTC in a profitable state held by short-term BTC holders (holding coins on the chain <span days) to the number of BTC in a loss state, that is, the "chip profit and loss ratio" of short-term holders.

On February 19, 2013, the BTC on-chain indicator dropped to 0.352;
On April 26, 2017, the BTC on-chain indicator dropped to 0.352;
On December 17, 2020, the BTC on-chain indicator dropped to 0.351;
Currently, the BTC on-chain indicator has dropped to 0.352.

The upper black line in the figure is the BTC price; the lower on-chain indicator is the ratio of the average cost price of BTC long-term holders to the average cost price of BTC short-term holders.

Note: The average cost price of BTC short-term holders refers to the average purchase price of BTC that has not moved on the chain for <span days; the average cost price of BTC long-term holders refers to the average purchase price of BTC that has not moved on the chain for >155 days.

If the market is really bullish, the blue line will soar. Don’t panic and wait for the time being😏

The black line in the figure is the BTC price; the blue line is the 365-day moving average of Bitcoin’s realized loss (BTC: Realized Loss).

Note: Realized loss (Realized Loss) refers to the total dollar loss (relative to the purchase cost) of BTC that moves in a loss state among the BTC that moves on the chain over a period of time.

On January 4, 2017, the green column dropped to 16%;
On November 20, 2020, the green column dropped to 16%;
Currently, the green column has dropped to 16%

It is worth mentioning that the BTC prices in these three times were all near the top price of the previous round of bull market.

The black line above the figure is the BTC price; the green column below is the percentage of BTC on the chain that has not been moved for 2-3 years. Among them, BTC of different ages needs to be weighted by the total purchase cost market value (Realized Cap) of BTC in that age group to eliminate the problem of too large a proportion of ancient whale chips now.

Carve out 20 years🐶 (the black line is the current BTC price; the blue line is the BTC price in 18-21 years. The two lines are aligned on the left side of the peak of the last bull market as the starting point).

In 2012-2013, BTC lasted about 7 months in stage ③;
In 2016-2017, BTC lasted about 11 months in stage ③;
In 2020, BTC lasted about 4.5 months in stage ③;
In this cycle, BTC has lasted about 4 months in stage ③.

The figure shows a set of BTC top and bottom two-cycle currency price models. The model is based on Coin Days Destroyed, total circulation (Liquid Supply) and realized price (Realized Price). It is designed through an exclusive algorithm and uses 5 lines and 4 stages to fully divide the entire historical currency price from the top to the bottom.

On March 20, BTC reached $60,700, and the indicator on the chain was as low as 89.09%;
BTC is currently at $65,000, and the indicator on the chain is as low as 89.08% (hourly data).

The black line in the figure is the BTC price; the orange line is the percentage of all profitable BTC on the chain to the total.

Note: The price of BTC when it last moved on the chain is regarded as the purchase price of the BTC. When the purchase price is lower than the current market price, the BTC is considered to be in profit.

The more things happen, the faster time passes.

By the time most people realize it, most of the bull market has passed.

The black line in the figure is the price of BTC; the various colored columns are the number of BTC in each age group (such as 6m-12m, 1-2 years, 2-3 years...) divided by the length of time that BTC has not moved on the chain. In addition, in the calculation process, the number of BTC in each age group needs to be weighted by the total purchase cost market value (Realized Cap) of BTC in that age group to eliminate the problem that the ancient whale chips account for too large a proportion now.

The blue curve in the figure shows the fluctuation in the proportion of chips held on the chain for less than 2 years, which often goes out of the U-shape during bull market cycles.

Currently, the chips distributed to veterans on the BTC chain are 40.6% (the proportion of chips held on the chain for >1 year).

It is worth mentioning that in the history of bull tops, veterans have distributed chips at a minimum of 10.4% and below.

The black line in the figure is the price of BTC; the column is the percentage of the number of BTC that has not been moved on the chain for >1 year to the total. BTC of different age groups need to be weighted by the total purchase cost market value (Realized Cap) of BTC in that age group. In order to eliminate the problem that the ancient whale chips account for too much now.

In early March, when the currency price just exceeded $70,000, the MVRV indicator of short-term BTC holders reached 1.4 (that is, the overall floating profit of short-term holders on the chain was 40%);

The current currency price is still around $70,000, but the MVRV indicator for short-term holders of BTC has fallen back to 1.21 (that is, the overall floating profit of short-term holders on the chain is 21%).

The price has not changed, the indicators have fully corrected, the short-term FOMO sentiment has been released, and a new currency price platform has gradually been consolidated, laying a solid foundation for the next wave of aggressive attacks.

Note: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) for short-term BTC holders refers to the current total market value of BTC held by short-term BTC holders (holding the currency on the chain for <span days) and the total market value of the cost calculated based on these BTC purchase prices. The ratio is the overall spot price/cost price of short-term BTC holders.