In Bitcoin, the price periodically drops to perform liquidity cleansing before rising again. This phenomenon is common across financial markets. Typically, these drops begin with whales sending Bitcoin that has been held for a long time to exchanges, creating selling pressure through exchanges. We can detect these sales before they start by monitoring whale movements to exchanges using CDD data.

CDD, or Coin Days Destroyed, is data that identifies when long-held Bitcoins are being moved. When holders move Bitcoin, it generally creates selling pressure in the market, suppressing upward movements and leading to minor downward movements.

You can examine the selling pressure in the market that starts after receiving CDD data from the table below. Without breaking this pressure, new uptrends won't emerge. The last high CDD data in the spot markets was on April 24th. After this data, we witnessed significant selling pressure.

Written by theKriptolik

BTC STH-Realized Price is an important support line in a bull market

The BTC STH-Realized Price is the average buy price of short-term market participants(~6M) and is the benchmark for identifying a Bitcoin bull market.

If Bitcoin is still in a bullish season, the STH-Realized Price is a very good buying opportunity

Written by crypto sunmoon

I am currently awaiting an increase in Bitfinex's reserves. During the previous bubble market, when Bitfinex’s reserves were increasing and Binance’s funding rate turned negative, it often indicated that prices were nearing the bottom. While this observation is based on past occurrences, if the user base size of Bitfinex and Binance remains unchanged in this current bubble, I might witness this situation again.

Given the current circumstances where Binance's funding rate has turned negative, I am closely monitoring the developments at Bitfinex.

Written by nino

Bitcoin's price surges have failed to translate into a commensurate uptick in adoption, as evidenced by a persistent downtrend in active addresses throughout 2024. While the transition of some on-chain participants to ETF holders may introduce complexities in data interpretation, sufficient time has likely elapsed post-ETF for stabilization. In this context, amid increasing uncertainly, I think a heightened responsiveness to shorter-term signals is needed.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

In the current market climate, Bitcoin's short-term Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has entered a zone of indecisive direction, juxtaposed against the sustained bullish momentum of the adjusted SOPR. This divergence underscores a nuanced landscape wherein short-term holders confront losses and potential erosion of confidence. While fluctuations of this nature are not uncommon, particularly during periods of price exploration toward new all-time highs, heightened vigilance is warranted. The persistence of a bullish aSOPR amidst wavering short-term SOPR trends gives rise to the possibility of a rapid downward shift once the aSOPR trajectory reverses.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

You can check the Realized Price by BTC age on UTXO through the Realized Price-UTXO Age band. This is the cost basis and can act as support/resistance.

⚠️But you should not interpret the band as it is. This is because the overall Realized Cap Dominance (%) is different for each cohort.

📌Long-Term Holder: Let’s look at the actual Realized Price of LTH, reflecting the proportion of Realized Cap. When including the last cycle, the cohort ranges from 6m to 5yr and is 47.0% of the total cap.

(L: Realized Price / R: Realized Cap Dominance)

🟧6m~12m

$28.28k / 7.89%

🟩12m~18m

$20.94k / 7.89%

🟪18m~2yr

$23.73k / 3.41%

🟦2yr~3yr

$49.24k / 14.51%

⬛3yr~5yr

$26.56k / 13.29%

☑️The weighted average value reflecting their proportion is $31.66k.

1) The difference from the current price of $63.47k is significant, and most of the LTH is in profit.

- - This is why the tendency to realize LTH profits is high.

2) $31.66k is near the short-term high in July 2023, which was a sideways market, and is about 50% of the current price.

3) The reason why 3y-5y RP has risen sharply recently is because of LTH purchased during the 2020-2021 bull market.

- However, their Realized Cap Dominance does not increase much compared to RP.

- This is because they have endured losses for a long time and show a strong tendency to realize profits now that they have passed the break-even point.

4) The 2y-3y cohort also showed a significant tendency to realize profits, showing a significant decrease in dominance.

5) It is unlikely that the price will be sharply adjusted (-50%) to $31.66k, but it is difficult to expect strong support with the LTH Dominance reduced.

- The maximum drawdown in this cycle was -20% and -36% in 2015-2017. 2019-2021 was 62%, but this was due to COVID-19.

6) STH RP of $59k will act as support, but we need to monitor whether it can be maintained.

Written by Yonsei_dent

Since breaking through the $50,000 mark in late February (indicated by the circle on the price chart), it is the first time in a long period that the funding rate has turned negative. There is variability among different exchanges (marked by the square area), which began in early April and continues to this day. This shift is speculated to be due to a demand for hedging with physical Bitcoin in anticipation of the halving. Moreover, this hedging demand is likely to be settled through counter-trades, which I believe will help to further drive up the prices in the future.

Written by nino

Whale Bitcoin exchange inflow has observed a notable surge in recent data, constituting a substantial portion of overall exchange inflow. This uptick potentially signifies significant profit-taking by whales amidst the 2024 Bitcoin bull run. While acknowledging that such metrics occasionally generate false signals, prudent caution is warranted in interpreting market dynamics.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

1/ More #Bitcoin is leaving than entering exchanges this cycle. That's a promising sign for the long haul!📈 #HODLers

2/ #BTC accumulation remains steady, punctuated by occasional cool-off periods. HODL strong! 💪 🟢

Written by elcryptotavo

The following is not a trading recommendation and is solely for research purposes.

The charts below depict visualizations of a deep learning model with Onchain data taken from the CryptoQuant platform. For this purpose, 376 Onchain features available on the CryptoQuant platform since 2012 have been utilized. The model has been trained accordingly to predict the price of Bitcoin in the next 30 days based on the Onchain data of the past year.

The first three charts display visualizations of actual price versus predicted price by the model for the training, validation, and test datasets. The fourth chart illustrates the prediction of Bitcoin price for the next 30 days based on the same model. Please note that the provided predictions are purely research-oriented and do not constitute any trading advice.

Written by CryptoOnchain

This chart shows the unrealized profits for long-term of whales. The black line represents Bitcoin's price, while the green lines represent the unrealized profits of long-term whales respectively. The chart indicates that long-term whales are seeing an increase in profits as Bitcoin's price rises, yet they haven't cashed out these profits. The circle on the right highlights a significant rise in long-term whales's unrealized profits, suggesting they're holding onto their positions and could impact the market if they start taking profits.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

Movement of trend holders from a quarterly perspective is starting to resurge.

(Yellow box)

movement of this entity can be seen as data for volatility confirmation rather than for price increases or decreases. It appears that volatility is likely to emerge soon.

Written by Mignolet

After the Bitcoin halving, it's natural to observe a period of sideways movement or a decline in prices. This occurs because the Puell Multiple, a fundamental metric that relates Bitcoin's current supply to the average daily supplies over a one-year period, experiences a significant drop. This reduction in the reward granted to miners by half during the halving implies a decrease in the number of new Bitcoins entering the market daily, thereby reducing the daily average supply used in calculating the Puell Multiple.

The analysis indicates that the halving has led to a shift in the dynamics of the Bitcoin mining market. With a reduced daily average supply, there may be potentially less selling pressure from miners, which could have implications for prices and network activity. This observation aligns with historical patterns and is crucial for understanding Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics following significant events such as the halving.

Written by joaowedson

This chart illustrates the variations in the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Ratio. Specifically, the 'LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR' showcased here compares the SOPR values of long-term holders to those of short-term holders, employing a 7-day Simple Moving Average. When this ratio is elevated, it suggests that long-term holders are realizing greater profits in contrast to short-term holders, a metric potentially beneficial in identifying market peaks.

Over the years, the ratio has been generally decreasing, yet we observe certain patterns where an uptick in the ratio precedes a rise in Bitcoin's price, reaching a peak before undergoing adjustments. Such patterns hint at the likelihood of long-term investors capitalizing on price ascents to realize profits, shedding light on the possible impacts of such profit-taking on market conditions.

Interpreting the current pattern, a high SOPR Ratio may signal that the market's upward momentum might have been partially cashed out by long-term investors, indicating the necessity for caution against potential price corrections or increased volatility in the future.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

In block 840000, on Friday night, the block subsidy fell by half, from 6,25 to 3,125. This scheduled change in issuance schedule has historically provided a complex time for miners and a medium-term bullish catalyst for BTC.

The hype and speculation of a new protocol called Runes, which debuted on the halving block, led to a hyperbolic increase in transaction fees over the next 24 hours.

Exceeding US$128 on average, on-chain movement fees reached the highest value in their history.

Written by caueconomy

I mentioned the importance of the Coinbase premium index range structure 0.5 zone. The price reacted to this zone and started to rise. As long as this zone is not lost, the price will remain positive.

The level I set in the open interest indicator continues to work as support. I will continue to monitor it.

The decline in funding rates is a positive data for the rise.

I will share new analysis and scenarios with the beginning of the new week.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

Written by TraderOasis

The impact of futures market sentiment on significant price movements cannot be underestimated, as the intensity of long and short positions, coupled with the possibility of substantial liquidations, serves as a primary catalyst for market volatility. A crucial indicator in assessing this sentiment is Open Interest, which quantifies the number of open perpetual futures contracts across various cryptocurrency exchanges.

In light of Ethereum's recent downtrend, it is noteworthy that the Open Interest metric has followed a similar trajectory, experiencing a substantial decline. This alignment suggests a cooling down of activity within the futures market. Consequently, the market appears poised for the resurgence of either long or short positions, potentially initiating a fresh and decisive market movement in either direction.

Written by ShayanBTC

Maybe it's a graph of U.S. government liquidity essentially tipping into virtual currency.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Both spot CVD and stablecoins supply, as well as bins reserves, have decreased since before the war report. The point is that both money flows and market flows fell simultaneously during this year's upswing. This was reflected in prices. It is simple and therefore reliable. Try to make use of it in your trading.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Both spot CVD and stablecoins supply, as well as bins reserves, have decreased since before the war report. The point is that both money flows and market flows fell simultaneously during this year's upswing. This was reflected in prices. It is simple and therefore reliable. Try to make use of it in your trading.

Written by Crypto_Lion