What is the probability of a sharp drop in Bitcoin (BTC) after the halving? Will it fall to 50,000 US dollars?

There are different views on the market after the halving. This is a normal phenomenon. There are thousands of people and thousands of lines. Unpredictable changes are the norm of the market. The market can only be tracked by trends, but not predicted.
I am one of those who are not bearish. Today I share my personal views. The result can only be verified by waiting for the subsequent market to come out.
1. Fundamentals Before the halving of Bitcoin, the cost price of miners was between 15,000 and 20,000 US dollars. After the halving, the difficulty of mining doubled, and the cost of miners reached 30,000-40,000 US dollars, which is their lifeline.
At the beginning of the year, the SEC approved the Bitcoin spot ETF. Exchange Jiawei; wuq6267 Many institutions sold their Bitcoin and exchanged it for Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin spot ETF is a compliance for traditional finance, so many institutions have exchanged their Bitcoin for ETF, changing the soup but not the medicine. The cost price of most institutional ETFs is above $45,000. A few days ago, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission also approved the spot ETFs of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Investors in the traditional financial sector in China can buy Bitcoin spot ETFs through the stock exchange, but their cost price is probably above $60,000. The outside community is panicking and completely unable to understand the current market trend. They think the bull market is over, but our members are not worried at all, because they know what they want, and they are also clear about the current market trend. They know more clearly which part of the money we want to earn, and we only take one scoop from the weak water.

2. Technical side
Next, I will use the Qianlong strategy to analyze the reasons why I am not bearish based on the trend of the market.
1. Overall, the BTC daily line has formed a slightly downward sloping parallel channel.

2. Compared with the two large callbacks, the short-selling volume is shrinking, and the overall volume of the oscillation range is also shrinking, which shows that the short-selling force is weakening.

3. The price did not break the previous low by much, and did not effectively fall below $60,000. It was still fluctuating between $60,000 and $73,600, indicating that the support below was very strong.
4. The short position in this wave of callback was also gradually shrinking. Yesterday, a piercing pattern was formed at the support level, and the market stopped falling.

From the fundamentals to the technical aspects, it can be seen that the possibility of a big drop after halving is very small, but there are still many people who can only go with the flow because they don’t understand it. Most people in the currency circle go with the flow. These people are the 80% of people in the 28th law, so they can’t get results.

The main players are people with reverse thinking and are also good at taking advantage of human nature, so trading is not just one-sided, and success is not that easy.

Therefore, after BTC halving, the possibility of returning to below 50,000 US dollars is extremely small. This is my personal opinion that I don’t see a big drop.

#比特币减半 #大盘走势 #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥