Chaos Theory Analysis 4.19: Bitcoin halving countdown!

Yesterday's article did a real-time public interactive vote on the opinions of friends on the Chaos Theory technology. As of now, from the results of the vote, those who think that the Chaos Theory technology is worth studying and think that the Chaos Theory technology is awesome occupy an absolute advantage of 90%.

The fourth Bitcoin halving has entered the 24-hour countdown range. It is expected to reach the block height at around 7 o'clock tomorrow morning Beijing time at the earliest. The halving will be officially completed. We will witness history again!
For many people in the currency circle, the most frequent sentence heard at the moment is: the big cake has not been halved yet, and the assets have been halved. But there is no need to be discouraged. As long as the leverage is not increased, being trapped or halving assets are only temporary. As long as the big cake daily level three buy is confirmed, everything will come back. How can you see the rainbow without going through wind and rain!
For the currency circle, the BTC halving is the top priority of the entire currency circle, and it has an extremely important impact on the overall market of the currency circle. From the market after each halving, without exception, they all reach the peak of the bull market at some time in the future after the halving! The last time Bitcoin was halved was in May 2020, when the price was around 9,500 points. In the end, Bitcoin hit the first peak of the previous bull market at 64,850 points in April 21, and after a brief violent wash, it hit the historical high of 69,000 in November.
This time, the Bitcoin halving market has a very different feature from the previous three times. Before this halving, under the support of Bitcoin spot ETF, Bitcoin had already broken through the historical high before the halving. Then, combined with the official halving and the upcoming interest rate cut and water release cycle in the United States, there are higher expectations and imaginations for the peak of Bitcoin in the future bull market.
Back to the current market, Bitcoin did not continue to set a new low after breaking 60,000 points yesterday, but went out of a very rare 30-minute single-stroke segment trend, and the highest has rebounded to above 64,000 points.

First look at the daily chart. At the daily level, a large positive line yesterday almost reversed yesterday's negative line. Once the daily bottom pattern appears here, there is a high probability that the daily level will move upward, which corresponds to the 30-minute level upward trend type. Once the right side opportunity of buying after a 30-minute downward correction without a new low appears as mentioned in yesterday's article, it will be a relatively safe entry point.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can clearly see that the 4-hour level broke the new low and consolidated, and the downward trend diverged in two strokes. The structure is relatively complete and full. As long as the second pen buy appears, you can boldly get on the train. It is expected to rebound upward for a period of 4 hours.

Interpretation of Chan Theory 4.18: The opportunity to buy the bottom in the medium and long term is looming!

Watching the trend is as clear as watching your palm lines, watching the flowers blooming freely!
Looking back at the 30-minute trend deduction and analysis of the big cake every day in this week's article, following and responding, and timely reminders in the community when the market is about to turn, all are perfectly reflected in this paragraph said by Master Chan.
Yesterday morning, the article clearly reminded that the big cake will have a 30-minute level rebound and then the third section of the central selling point will be released. At around 6 o'clock in the afternoon, when the market was about to turn (the big cake was around 63,000), it was prompted that the selling point had been released and it was going to break a new low! As a result, at nearly 12 o'clock in the evening, the big cake broke the low of 60,660 as expected, and the lowest rebound was 59,678.

I believe that many friends are very curious about why Brother Yixin can make such an accurate judgment before the trend has come out, and the success rate is so high? Is it the incarnation of God or Wang Mingyang?
No! This number is further explained by the next trend chart:

From the chart, we can see that, just like the reason why we judged that it would break 61680 again and start to rebound at 5 pm the day before yesterday, the accurate judgment of the turning point of yesterday's market came from the clear Chaos Theory structure diagram in the figure, which involves many core knowledge points in Chaos Theory technology: level, divergence, trend perfection, multi-level combination, turning force, etc.
As long as you fully master the basic knowledge of Chaos Theory and integrate all the knowledge points, then the friends who are connected with Chaos Theory can do it after experience!
Here is a survey and voting, please actively participate:
1. Chaos Theory is the ceiling of trading technology, unparalleled
2. Chaos Theory is mediocre, nothing special

Back to the market, the current new low has been broken. From the perspective of the volume after breaking the new low, the strength is not great, and the 30-minute central structure has also appeared. At present, the central axis is moving downward. The end of this downward section is likely to constitute a 30-minute consolidation divergence buy-in mid- and long-term bottom-picking opportunity, buy first and sell later

Combine it with the daily level and the 4-hour level structure. When the 30-minute level moves downward and a clear structure appears inside the segment, it is the best opportunity to buy at the bottom. Then observe the strength of the 30-minute upward rebound. If the strength is strong, it may become a buying opportunity at the daily level, 4-hour level and 30-minute level!Of course, conservative ones can also wait for the safe opportunity on the right side of the second buy in 30 minutes to prevent the trend from extending downward.

Chaos Theory Analysis 4.17: The trend is under control!

The trend of BTC is completely under the control of Chaos Theory technology. From the third sell to the second buy without creating a new low, the yellow trend deduced yesterday was selected. At present, the upward section of the 30-minute level from the third sell to the second buy is running.
Yesterday, this account accurately predicted in the community in advance that the 5-minute small level would break 61680 and then rebound. The actual trend was just to break 61680 again and then rebound to 61600, and confirmed it at 12:30 am. The next one did not break the low point of 61600, and then the highest rebounded to 64365.

From the rebound of the second buy in 30 minutes, the strength is average, and at most we can only see the rebound of the 30-minute level. After the rebound of the secondary selling point, it is still necessary to sell first and then buy.

Looking at the 30-minute chart, the maximum range of the 30-minute level center is shown in the yellow box in the figure, and the new 30-minute center has taken shape. The height of the current second buy rebound is very important. If it cannot break through the third selling point 68867, the probability of breaking a new low in the future will increase greatly. The core of short-term trading is still following and position management.
If you choose the red trend in the figure, once the consolidation divergence buying point appears after breaking the low point of 60660, it is regarded as the best mid- and long-term bottom-picking point. Note that the buying point needs to be diverged. If the volume is not diverged and the price falls, you still need to wait patiently.

Chaos Theory Analysis 4.16: The conversion relationship between buy and sell points after the 30-minute three sells

The trend of BTC is just as analyzed in yesterday's article. It rebounded to 66867 without touching the lower edge of the 30-minute level center and then began to pull back. Last night, the community master brother had already prompted the reduction of positions for bottom-fishing. After reducing positions, you need to wait for the buy point to appear before you can cover your positions.

Looking at the 30-minute real-time chart of the big cake, the three sells have appeared. The next focus is on the conversion relationship between buy and sell points after the three sells. Is the three sells converted to a new low and a second buy? Or is the three sells converted to a new low and a divergence buy? Or is it a new low and a large-scale decline? At present, it has only gone through the first downward transaction of the 30-minute three sells, and there is no clear structure yet. It is impossible to make a judgment and it is necessary to continue to follow the trend.

As you can see from the above picture, the trend chose the yellow trend analyzed in yesterday's article. At present, the pullback after the three sells is still very strong, so the probability of breaking a new low again is not small. For short-term traders, those who sell at the selling point or reduce their spot positions should wait for the next section of the internal structure to appear before closing the short position or covering the spot. For medium and long-term traders, they should wait patiently for the new 30-minute central axis to be completed and the buying point to appear before considering whether to buy the bottom. The construction of the 30-minute central axis takes at least a few days.

Take a look at the 30-minute chart of ETH again. This trend is exactly the same as that of Bitcoin. For operation, refer to the Bitcoin strategy.

To briefly summarize the future trend of Bitcoin, the probability of breaking a new low again after the three sells increases greatly. After waiting for the 30-minute central axis to be completed, there will be a downward departure segment. The key is the strength of this downward departure segment, and observe whether the 60,000-point first-line strong support can hold up.
Of course, for long-term traders, the difference between buying at 60,000 and buying at 50,000 is not big. Actively buying in batches is a good strategy. The current bull market has only reached the second stage, and being trapped is temporary. Once the three-buy level of the daily line is established in the future, the bulls will launch a major counterattack, and the bull market will enter the next stage!

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!

Chaos Theory Analysis 4.15: Golden Pit?

Yesterday, Sunday, the relatively quiet weekend in the cryptocurrency circle was broken by a thunderbolt in the early morning of Sunday. BTC instantly dropped more than 7,000 points from 68,000 points, and the lowest point was 60,660. Ethereum dropped from 3,300 points to 2,850. Other copycats were almost bleeding, and a big pit was smashed out. It was terrible! ! ! At present, the big cake has rebounded to above 65,000.
This account had expected a big correction on Saturday morning, which would fall below the new high of 73,777 and then the 4-hour central low of 60,777. It was just that it was not expected to be completed in a fast and tragic way again. Bull market crash! Although it was expected long ago, it still aroused waves in my heart when it actually happened.

Of course, whether yesterday's rapid and violent downward pin was the low point of this round of correction or whether it was the third buying point of the daily level cannot be judged at the moment, and future trends need to be followed and judged. The support of the 60,000-point line is very important. If it is effectively broken, it will most likely go directly down in 4 hours to construct a new 4-hour level center, and will test the 50,000-point line.

First look at the 4-hour real-time chart. It can be seen from the chart that the current rapid callback is caused by two non-new highs and two sells, which is also the basis for my deduction of breaking the new low on Saturday. The selling point must fall. This is the only conclusion drawn by the entanglement theory technology, which is irrefutable.
After breaking the new low, it can be seen that it is obviously a large-scale decline. However, after reaching the 60,000-point support line, it was quickly pulled back by the bulls. When it plummeted in the early morning yesterday, the U premium of the exchange was above 7.5, indicating that a large amount of funds poured in to buy the bottom. It is too early to judge whether the market will reverse. As shown in the figure, the probability of reversal increases when the blue trend is issued and the second buy is issued. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the strength of the next decline after the current rebound ends. That is, follow the growth and evolution of the secondary 30-minute trend type.

From the 30-minute chart, it is obvious that the volume fell after the second high point, but there was no divergence. The trend here becomes very complicated. It is difficult to make an accurate judgment on the trend without the central structure. However, judging from the current rebound strength, it is not small. The key is whether it can enter the central interval (yellow box).If the third sell is issued, the probability of continuing to hit a new low will increase.
Just before 6 o'clock yesterday morning, the plunge was the most panic, and the price of Bitcoin was more than 61,000 points. This account proposed to buy the bottom in batches in the community and intervene in the spot market, and take a rebound first. The market has fluctuated. If you follow the bottom-fishing position, you can reduce your position and make a short-term profit, and wait for the buying point to appear at the 30-minute level before re-entering.

Chaos Theory Analysis 4.11: BTC jumps up and down, do less and watch more, wait for the flowers to bloom and fall

The trend of the big cake has been very abnormal in recent times, with frequent small to large changes, without any rules or structure. This is extremely unfriendly to short-term trading, and I believe most people have the same feeling.

There are many complex reasons for the frequent ups and downs in the currency circle. The core factor is that the long and short sides have huge differences near 70,000 points, and are fighting fiercely. At present, neither the longs nor the shorts have an absolute advantage to crush each other. However, as time goes by, the chips are constantly changing hands, and the longs and shorts will eventually decide the winner and get out of this oscillation range.

From the 4-hour chart, the current operation is still the 4-hour upward section. This section has formed the first pen center. Combined with the MACD approaching the zero axis and the shortening of the red column, this account tends to challenge the new high again.

Looking at the 30-minute chart again, due to the ups and downs and frequent small to large changes, the 30-minute level trend is extremely ugly. The last wave of volume rose to around 73,000, but was beaten back by the bears, and the correction was quite deep. However, it did not return to the lower center to buy three in the end.
At about 8:30 last night, just after the big cake fell below 68,000 points, someone in the community was controlled by emotions and wanted to chase the short again. I reminded the community in time not to chase the rise and kill the fall, because there were two complete pen central downward trend divergence buying points inside the 30-minute falling line segment (as shown in the red part of the figure). The buying point cannot be shorted, and it is reversed.

The current trend is as expected. After the big cake fell below 68,000 to construct a short trap, it rebounded sharply. At six o'clock in the morning, the highest was above 71,000.
This account has mentioned countless times in previous articles or live broadcasts that you should not chase the rise and kill the fall. Chasing the rise and killing the fall is an absolute leek behavior, and eventually become the object of the market! Trading needs to go against human nature. Remember that when it falls, you can only consider whether to buy or not, and when it rises, you can consider whether to sell or not. If this mentality cannot be completely reversed, we can clearly conclude that it is wishful thinking to chase the rise and sell the fall and want to make money in the trading market! ! !

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!

Chaos Theory Analysis 4.09: Those who can't kill you will eventually make you stronger!

Let's take a look at a piece of heavy news first:
According to the Securities Times, many leading fund companies are using their Hong Kong subsidiaries to lay out Bitcoin ETFs. The reporter of the newspaper learned in an interview that several institutions, including Harvest Fund Hong Kong Subsidiary and Southern Fund Hong Kong Subsidiary, are applying for and laying out Bitcoin ETFs. Among them, the product that Harvest Fund applied to the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission is Bitcoin spot ETF. In addition, China Asset Management's Hong Kong subsidiary recently reached a cooperation with the Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF custodian. Industry insiders predict that the relevant Bitcoin ETF application may be implemented as early as the second quarter of this year.

From the above news, it can be seen that Hong Kong, as the international amount center of Asia, China's window to the outside world, and the only region and bridgehead in China where the trading of encrypted digital currencies is legalized, large domestic institutions are also actively laying out the digital currency ETF track. It is in line with a famous saying on the Internet: Those who can't kill you will eventually make you stronger!
The implementation details of the Bitcoin spot ETF of large fund companies have not yet been announced. There is no conclusion on the investment threshold or whether mainland investors can directly participate. The impact on the market remains to be seen, but in any case it is undoubtedly a big boon for the currency circle. It will bring a long-term and continuous flow of traditional funds to the currency circle and bring higher expectations for the high point of this bull market.

Back to the market, the article mentioned yesterday morning that the big cake is about to change. Combined with the daily MACD pattern, it is judged that the upward probability is relatively high. Unexpectedly, in less than a day, the big cake chose to break through strongly, reaching a high of 72,800, just one step away from the highest point. At present, the strength of the upward breakthrough is acceptable, and breaking through the historical high is basically set in stone. However, as a reminder, the key is the strength of breaking through the historical high. Insufficient strength will induce a larger level of callback. For us, it is slowly coming to a critical moment. Pay special attention to the signal of whether the market is turning. This account will remind the community at the first time at a critical moment.

The above 4-hour chart gives the deduction of the third buying point of the 4-hour center leaving the segment upward. When a divergence or consolidation divergence selling point appears at the secondary level, you should mainly reduce your positions in batches gradually.It is expected that after breaking the new high, there will be a wave of upward movement driven by bullish sentiment. Everything is based on the structure, and you should not blindly chase highs due to FOMO sentiment.

Chaos Theory Analysis 4.08: 4-hour level mid-yin stage, facing direction choice

BTC has been fluctuating at a high level since it hit a record high of 73777 on March 14 and then quickly fell back to 60777, and the range of fluctuations is getting smaller and smaller, showing a triangular consolidation or convergence center. This means that the big cake is about to face another direction choice.

Looking directly at the 4-hour chart, it can be clearly seen in the chart that the new 4-hour yellow center range has been determined, and the current operation is the upward section of two sells turning into two buys. The recent market conditions are very torturous. From the internal structure of each red line segment, it can be seen that almost every red circle is a "small to large" reversal trend, and there is no clear structure for the conversion of buying and selling points. Frequent small to large market conditions are the most elusive, and the probability of operational errors will also increase greatly. In this market, it is recommended to do less and watch more, and do less bands. For spot trading, even if you are trapped, it is only temporary and there is no need to panic. Contract operations can only be fast in and out of small-level buying and selling points.
From the structural morphology, this center is a convergent center, and it is in the middle Yin stage of the second center at the 4-hour level. It can go up or down, and there is no clear direction. However, from the daily chart, the daily MACD is basically close to the zero axis, and the red column begins to shorten. According to the convention, it will rush up again. The strength of this wave of upward rush in the future is very critical.

Take a look at the ETH 4-hour chart again. The trend of Ethereum is similar to that of Cake, but it is weaker than Cake. The highest and lowest points of the center are still important reference points. At present, it is in the middle Yin stage, and it can only be dealt with according to the 4-hour level center shock tactics.

Tangleun Jiepan 4.02: BTC has a 30-minute center shock and will soon be upgraded to a nine-segment upgrade center.

BTC's rapid decline yesterday hit the lowest level around 68,000, clearing away a wave of leverage for chasing bulls at high levels. Judging from the data, the total liquidation volume of the entire network in 24 hours reached 284 million U.S. dollars, and the main liquidation of long orders was 230 million U.S. dollars, giving the excited chasers a blow!

There are too many people who are bullish and bullish, which makes the car too heavy, which is not conducive to the upward breakthrough of the market. In the end, the market first chooses to push the pin downward to burst into long positions. Judging from the entanglement structure, the market has not gone bad. It is still in the 30-minute level center shock, and has great potential to become the nine-stage upgrade center. The so-called horizontal is as long as the vertical is high. The longer the oscillation time, the greater the burst of energy. This oscillation process is actually a fierce game between the longs and the shorts in this interval. Regardless of whether the longs consume the shorts or the shorts consume the longs, one side will eventually win. The other party gets to choose a direction.

Looking directly at the 30-minute chart, we can clearly see from the chart that the pie has been oscillating around the yellow center since March 26, and has been oscillating for nearly a week. Who among the long and short sides will have the advantage depends on whether there are three buys or three sells in the future. Combined with the current position and structure of each major level, the probability of this account tending to break upward is relatively high, that is, the high probability drawn in the picture will be upgraded to a nine-stage upgrade center and then break upward.
As for the operation suggestion, the current operation is the eighth upward segment. When the interval structure appears inside the ninth downward line segment, it will form the central ninth segment buying point. Make an upward departure segment and use 68,000 points as the defensive point.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!

Tangle Theory Solution 4.01: Ready to go!

The trend of the currency circle fluctuated upward over the two days over the weekend, which is basically in line with the upward expectations for the buying point of the third period of the 30-minute center of Big Pie and Ether as prompted by this issue on Saturday morning. From a morphological point of view, the trend of Big Pie is already in a state of preparation, breaking a new historical high. It's a high probability.

Let’s look at the 4-hour chart first. It can be clearly seen from the chart that the MACD zero axis has been pulled back in place (the daily MACD zero axis has also been pulled back in place), and the green pillar has begun to appear, which is the pen center structure. Completed, this is the classic start-up form. On Saturday morning, this number had clearly prompted the buy market at 5 minutes 2.
It should be noted that looking at the 4-hour level, there is a high probability that there will be a trend of three buys and one sell. The key is to see where it will extend after breaking the new high. No matter where it extends, when a sub-level selling point appears, short-term and medium-term positions will mainly be reduced, and you must not fantasize about it. A wave of bullish inducements is often followed by violent selling, which means the end of the phased market. Of course, the market is basically safe until it breaks new highs.

Looking at the 30-minute chart again, the chart shows the highest probability trend. After breaking a new high in the future, it will move upward and leave the segment. After that, it will not be able to pull back into the center and make three buys again to continue upward and break new highs. The most noteworthy thing is the upward strength after three buys. When three buys turn to one sell, positions will begin to be gradually reduced.

The seventh offline practical class of the community ended successfully in the Shenzhen Operation Center. I would like to share the learning experience of a senior who participated in the offline practical class:

Finally, the community’s online and offline course schedule for April and May has been released. Friends who are interested in participating can arrange their own time to prepare in advance according to the course schedule.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!