The current total scale of the altcoin market is 1 trillion US dollars. In 2017, the total market size was 1 trillion, and in 2021, it was 3 trillion. This round of market size is expected to be 6 trillion, of which the total market value of altcoins is 2-3 trillion, which means that the current altcoin market will double or triple in size. The altcoin season will reduce the intensity by at least half compared with the previous round, and the profit and loss ratio is almost the same as holding BTC and ETH.

At the same time, projects that have not issued coins or listed on exchanges in the bull market are facing an awkward situation. To realize cash, they can only be listed as soon as possible. The voice of exchanges has been strengthened unprecedentedly. In the last round, the popularity promoted the listing of coins, and even no listing fee was required. This round of projects has too many people's attention and the voice has returned to the exchanges. Projects must take out some chips to list on exchanges, and exchanges use them to continuously attract new users.

Based on several changes, I think the future may be
BTC is always strong
ETH's income will outperform the altcoins in the long run
BNB captures the value of altcoins
SOL captures MEME emotions

The current status of restaking is that the protocol cannot make much money and relies on issuing coins

Staking cannot make much money and relies on airdrops

All profits come from the secondary market, how can a copycat not suffer? 😭

There is still room for new coins to be launched, take a good look at the research report to determine the strategy and what coins have not been issued

The total market value of the crypto market peaked at 2970.9 billion in 2021, close to 3 trillion US dollars. That was when the funds in the market were the craziest and the liquidity was the most sufficient.

On October 11, 2023, the bull market started, the total market value of cryptocurrencies was 1088.6 billion, BTC$27,000
On April 24, 2024, the total market value was 2589 billion

So was the cottage season stolen by BTC? This is only part of the reason. Look at the data to see the total market value of cottages (including ETH market value)

The peak market value of cottages in 2021: 1759.8 billion
The current market value on April 24, 2024: 1233.5 billion

There is still 42% of the peak market value of cottages, which is not very far. All the cottages that we expect to double by 5-10 times may not come. This round of bull market is constantly sucked by VC, airdrops, and new projects.

It can only be said that this round of cottages is very difficult. The market value of cottages in the last bull market doubled by 6 times, and there are many currencies in the market that doubled by 10 times.

However, this round of copycat market is already worth trillions of dollars, and the copycat market can probably double or triple in size. There will be a copycat season, but it will not be as enthusiastic as the last round.

So we naturally have to lower our high expectations for the copycat season, especially for those projects that are released too quickly in the bull market and whose FDV is slowly increasing. This will dilute a certain increase in price.

CZ's three important decisions in Binance's history

In 2017, China issued the 94 ban. At that time, Binance had to trade with other currencies. It went overseas in time to win precious development time and became the world's number one exchange in 6 months

BNB was the most popular product in the Binance IEO boom in 2019. Time has also proved that the projects selected by Binance can stand the test of time. In the last bull market, Sand and Matic were both launched on launchpad

DeFi in 2020 In summer, countless exchanges launched their own chains, but only BSC survived in the end. The ecosystem has also risen, and the wealth-creating effect on the chain and the market of BNB should not be unfamiliar. BNB ranges from $30-$700

Always at the forefront of the industry every time, looking at the development of the industry with a forward-looking perspective

I remember attending the dinner of my cousin last September, CZ also connected with us and answered our questions sincerely. At that time, many people also got CZ's attention on the spot. We all said that this trip was worth it (only I haven't)

Binance has always used the community to promote development and walks at the forefront of the industry. The support and contribution to blockchain has never disappointed people. It has not lived up to the trust of users, has not misappropriated a penny of users, and is willing to share profits with and participate in Binance's construction to grow together. Believe in Binance and always support Binance

From the data, we have experienced a wave of altcoin bull market, but why can't many people feel this round of bull market?

So who stole the crypto bull market? I think there are several reasons
1. The current altcoin market is large enough and it is difficult to continue to maintain explosive growth
2. BTC and ETH account for a large proportion of the total market value of the crypto market, but many people do not hold much and have a weak perception of the bull market
3. The altcoins invested by VCs have begun to be unlocked continuously, which is also squeezing the upward space of the total market value of altcoins
4. The original buying power of the market has been eliminated by the selling pressure of airdrops. Although there are already a lot of funds in the market to take over, the price still cannot rise
5. There are dazzling new projects, limited market funds, and limited new funds. New projects are a diversion of funds at the expense of sucking blood from old altcoins

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After a callback, the altcoins continued to avalanche. After several callbacks, Bitcoin could safely return to its previous high, but the altcoins may not be the same. Why? Looking at the historical data will tell you

Many people want to sell all their altcoins when Bitcoin reaches its highest point. In fact, this operation may not be correct

Let’s talk about the history of the previous cycle
The historical highs of many altcoins were in May 21, not in November when Bitcoin reached its highest point

Take the hottest UNI in the previous round as an example. The highest point was $45 on May 2

After 519, the second escape top position was $30 in August 21, when Bitcoin rebounded from the bottom to just over 50,000

When BTC peaked at $69,000 for the second time, UNI’s highest price was $28

The conclusion is

1. The highest price of some altcoins may not be reached when Bitcoin reaches its highest point, especially the hot tracks that have been hyped, such as UNI and DOG E
2. If you don't sell the alt at the high point, the price of the second escape will not be too good, and there will be a 20% retracement
3. The price high point of most alts is reached in May of 21, not in November when Bitcoin reached its highest point, such as THETA and OCEAN
4. The last alt dance segment that reaches the high point at the same time as Bitcoin may be the sector that has been lying on the ground before, such as SAND

Operation suggestions
1. Don't believe that Bitcoin has not reached its highest point, and the alt will set a new high
2. Don't be obsessed with the highest point of the alt
3. For the alt, you must stop profit in time
4. It is difficult for the hot sector to return to the high point after the speculation, and even the rebound strength is extremely poor
5. Pay attention to those sectors and new coins that have been lying on the ground for a long time and still have a crazy opportunity

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How do you view the people in the secondary market who have learned to be smart and the value coin is facing a collapse?

In the traditional primary market, 1 billion US dollars can be considered a unicorn

10 billion US dollars is the leader of the track, and the final goal is to go public with a 10-fold return, and the stock market will take over.

The reason why blockchain projects can have such a high valuation is actually reversed by people in the secondary market. If the takeover recognizes the market value of 10 billion US dollars, VC will take over at 1 billion US dollars. It does not depend on how much value and cash flow the project itself has. The reason why people in the secondary market took over before was nothing more than making money. The loss of the money-making effect in the secondary market also triggered the so-called collapse of the value coin.

Since they are all air and only come to make money, it is better to pursue a fully circulated meme. Unlike the value coin, the "shares" in the hands will be continuously unlocked and diluted.

In the 21st year of the cottage season, most Altcoins started to rise from the listing of 100 million US dollars. The current currency is already a unicorn market value when it comes to circulation, and the total market value is even close to the leader of the track. After losing the money-making effect, the market returns to rationality.

In this round of bull market, the secondary players <VC <money-making, and the only ones who can make a profit in the end are the money-making players. The existence of this part is reasonable because this is the insider trading of project parties and institutions to recover their capital and cash out in advance.

Money-making is the real first level instead of 1.5 level, which is the top of the food chain, but I also think this is the sadness of the industry. Project parties make stories, VCs support scams, and money-making makes data. No users, no profits, as long as there are retail investors in the secondary level, the game can go on until now, when the value currency is facing collapse and the music stops.

In this round of bear market, we may see a large number of institutions completely withdraw from the market. The last round of bear market wiped out exchanges, and this round wiped out institutions. The bubble pushed by the copycat coins is borne by the bankrupt exchanges, and the bubble pushed by the project is borne by the institutions if no one takes it

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The timing of bottom-fishing market was right again

Three laws of bottom-fishing
1. You can never fish at the bottom, most of them are hanging halfway up the mountain
2. People who wait for lower prices are always watching, and most of them miss out
3. It is normal to be trapped when bottom-fishing, and the probability of taking off directly is small

Yesterday, Yijie was talking about the entrepreneurial journey of Binance. It took 6 months to become the world's number one exchange and has always led the market. It uses the community to promote development and is willing to share profits with users and participants and grow together with Binance. This is also the reason why I have been in Binance.
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In the context of no mutual takeover, leaving more quota for real trading players is a good start

The first project to be launched on Binance Megadrop is BounceBit (BB), a BTC re-staking public chain.

Binance launched a new token issuance platform Megadrop. Users can apply for BNB regular products on the Binance Megadrop platform, and/or complete the project's tasks in the Binance Web3 wallet, and directly interact with the selected project parties to obtain airdrop rewards! 

1. Participating in regular BNB can participate in LPL and Megadrop at the same time without any action. One fish eats two fishes.

2. Users who participate in regular deposits of BNB will get a point bonus if they complete tasks and get more rewards.

3. Users who do not have BNB can only complete tasks and get pig feet rice.

To explain, if you participate in Binance BNB regular financial management, there will also be projects that will give you airdrops. Listing is the last stop that the project cannot cross. Instead of giving it to brushers as a project selling pressure, choosing to give it to users of the exchange is also a way.

I believe that most of the doomed projects that received airdrops are in a state of depression. The secondary investors are losing money, and the VCs have not yet recovered their capital. The only ones who can really make stable profits are those who are making a profit. However, they are all selling pressure. It is a good start to leave more airdrop profits to real trading players.

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No need to spend manpower and energy to make money
1. Participating in regular BNB can participate in LPL and Megadrop at the same time without any action.
2. Users who participate in regular BNB deposits will get a point bonus if they complete tasks and get more rewards.
3. Users who don't have BNB can just complete tasks and get pig feet rice.
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The altcoin bottomed out in advance at 414, and Bitcoin broke the key position of 60,000, which is regarded as the previous second bottoming

After the BTC spot ETF passed: 49,000-38,555, down 21.3%, 13 days of adjustment completed

Before BTC halving: 73,770-59,678, down 19.1%, according to the secondary peak of 72,797, the adjustment time is 11 days, no matter the amplitude or time, it is already close to the bottom position

In the absence of a black swan, the profit and loss ratio of this position is already very high, and those who do not have a position at least built a head position.

When it broke 40,000, many technical people were waiting to see 36,000 or even lower. As a result, you also know that there is a high probability that they did not bottom out. The same thing happens again, and those who did not bottom out will still not bottom out. I am a little stupid and do not make an accurate bottoming position judgment at this position, but choose to be trapped actively

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The bottom-picking position of the leading copycat of the sector is between -60% and -65%.

According to the highest point*0.4, you can get an approximate bottom-picking position (only applicable to the leader)

Most coins have fallen to the position at the beginning of the year, and those who hold for a long time have been on a huge roller coaster

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Price is not a fundamental factor, but it is the reason why many people are trapped

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The third wave of inscriptions is NFT on BTC. The main battlefield is not on OKX or unisat but on magic eden. There are dazzling NFT projects being issued every day.

The US non-farm payrolls data for March exceeded expectations, indicating that a strong labor market may slow down expectations of interest rate cuts, although the Fed may still conduct a slow balance sheet reduction operation. Next, the market may look forward to inflation data next week.

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A list of all coins that DWF participates in market making, take it as a warning. Before choosing a coin, check whether it is on the DWF list.

Most of you will become unlucky as soon as you buy it, so it is listed as a very important fundamental factor in coin selection.

Which coins do you have that are trapped by DWF market making? I will start with PORTAL and AXL. . .

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In fact, ENA is not just stable. The bottom line of its income is rate arbitrage. Buying USDe can be understood as buying their asset management products.

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