Next Monday, the Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF will start trading. Many people think that this will open a hole for the mainland and attract funds to drive the surge. However, it is necessary to pour cold water on the fact that Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will not open the market for mainland Chinese investors.

The statement issued by the State Council in September 2021 pointed out that no financial institution may open accounts, transfer funds or provide clearing services for any cryptocurrency-related transactions.

Even after Hong Kong approved the spot BTC and ETH ETFs, the three major Chinese asset management companies, China Asset Management, Harvest Global, and Bosera, established spot cryptocurrency ETFs through their Hong Kong subsidiaries on April 30, which could not allow retail investors and mainland institutions to bypass the red line. Moreover, the asset size of the US ETF market is close to 9 trillion US dollars, and the size of the entire Hong Kong ETF market is about 50 billion US dollars.

I don’t mean to be pessimistic, I just hope everyone will be objective and calm~
#BTC

Bitcoin fell again, and the reason turned out to be the panic selling caused by the net outflow of Bitcoin ETF.

On the 24th, BlackRock ended its 70-day record of net inflow of funds. On that day, 7 of the 10 spot ETFs except Grayscale GBTC followed IBIT's footsteps. Only Fidelity's FBTC and ARK/21Shares' Bitcoin ARKB had net inflows of US$5.6 million and US$4.2 million respectively, and GBTC outflows exceeded US$130 million, making the overall spot ETF record a net outflow of more than US$120 million on that day, setting the highest outflow record since April 17.

To make matters worse, the situation did not improve on the 25th, but became more serious.

The overall US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $218 million on the 25th, which was one of the most serious single-day outflows since the spot ETF was listed. Among them, Fidelity FBTC saw an outflow of more than $23 million, the first net outflow since its listing.

Due to the recent high inflation data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have weakened, and the US Treasury bond interest rate has risen significantly recently, resulting in investors' preference for cryptocurrencies and US stocks, which are risky and volatile assets. The recent volatility of the currency circle is still not small. #BTC

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will announce new fiscal policies next week. The U.S. Treasury may begin to use funds in its account for expenditures in May, thereby increasing market liquidity. The current U.S. Treasury Account Balance (TGA) has It increased from US$729 billion in early April to US$955.7 billion, with more than US$200 billion of this increase mainly coming from taxes.

Currently, Grandma Yellen may have the following three options:

1. Stop issuance of Treasury bonds by reducing TGA funding to zero, which is equivalent to an injection of approximately $1 trillion in liquidity.
2. Transferring more borrowings to short-term Treasury bills (T-bills), thereby withdrawing funds from reverse repurchase agreements (RRP), equivalent to injecting $400 billion in liquidity.
3. Combining the above two points, no long-term bonds are issued, only short-term treasury bills are issued, and the funds of TGA and RRP are reduced, which is equivalent to injecting liquidity of US$1.4 trillion.

The above three options will lead to a significant increase in market liquidity, and stock market crypto assets are expected to rebound sharply.

#BTC

Half a month ago, I learned about the highlights and advantages of the Ton ecosystem with teachers in space. Today, I would like to take the opportunity to sort it out and take stock of the high-quality projects in various tracks of the Ton ecosystem:

1. Infrastructure field:

In terms of Launchpad launch platform, there are now three major giants on Ton:

1. Tonstarter: Launchpad platform on TON, investment institutions include DWF Labs, Kingswap, etc. So far, about 13 IDOs have been carried out.

2. TonUP: TonUP is a Launchpad platform. Foresight X also cooperated with TonUP to launch a funding program aimed at supporting innovative projects in the TON ecosystem, with a total amount of US$200,000. I like his name very much, auspicious!

3. PlatformICO: Simple ICO platform, relatively simple operation, introducing a full-featured dashboard to manage token sales.

2. Wallet

In addition to infrastructure, wallets are also the top priority of an ecosystem. Currently, the wallets that support the Ton ecosystem are as follows:

1.xRocket: TG embedded wallet, supports peer-to-peer transactions, and supports functions such as invoicing.

2. Wallet: The official native TG embedded wallet, which can purchase cryptocurrencies through bank cards. It currently supports payments in US dollars, euros and rubles. Its self-hosted wallet TON Space supports Bitcoin, TON and stablecoin transactions.

3. Tonkeeper: Mobile wallet, which has been launched on Apple and Android app stores, supports browser plug-ins, and supports NFT display.

4. Tonhub: Mobile APP wallet, which has been launched on Apple and Android app stores, supports TON staking. No registration or personal information is required to start. Compatible with all existing TON wallets.

5.MyTonWallet: A non-custodial mobile phone APP wallet, which has been launched on Apple and Android app stores, supports TON staking and block browser functions, as well as interactive price charts, address books, anti-spam filters, and integration with third-party services such as CoinMarketCap, tonscan.org and Getgems.

6.OpenMask: An open source browser wallet. The application supports network functions: Jettons, NFT, TON DNS, TON WWW, TON Proxy, TON Sites, etc., and also supports biometric authentication via Touch Id for Mac, Yubikey or mobile phones.

In addition to the above native wallets, there are also third-party wallets, including Bitget Wallet, Gem, SafePal, Coin98 Wallet, Trust Wallet and Ledger, etc.

#TON生态

After the halving, Bitcoin did not rise as strongly as in 2020. Instead, it continued to fall due to the influence of geopolitics and the macro environment.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce tonight showed that the U.S. real GDP in the first quarter grew by 1.6% year-on-year, far less than the market's expectation of 2.5%, and a sharp slowdown from the 3.4% in the fourth quarter of last year.

This made the already pessimistic cryptocurrency market worse, because economic growth unexpectedly "colded" and core inflation remained stubborn. After the data was released, it was expected that the Fed's first interest rate cut would be postponed to December, and it was expected that the Fed would only cut interest rates by about 35 basis points throughout 2024, far lower than the forecast at the beginning of the year.

Save the children. I dare not open my exchange account and wallet. Don't stare at the children's trivia, okay?

#BTC

Morgan Stanley began offering Bitcoin spot ETFs to clients after the Bitcoin spot ETF was listed in January this year, but did not actively promote it. However, it is now reported that the company will change its strategy and plan to allow about 15,000 brokers under its umbrella to actively promote clients to buy Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Other peers have also adopted similar cautious strategies. Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo of Bank of America launched related products shortly after the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, but they were also limited to non-active solicitation of purchases. In some cases, they were limited to ultra-rich customers. For example, Merrill Lynch requires that customers must have at least $10 million or more in assets to purchase Bitcoin spot ETFs.

LPL Financial, the largest independent broker in the United States, said in February that the company plans to take three months to determine which Bitcoin funds can be provided to customers. Cetera Financial Group, an independent broker-dealer, has approved in March to provide customers with four Bitcoin spot ETFs.

However, not all traditional financial institutions are actively rushing into Bitcoin-related products. Raymond James Financial does not offer cryptocurrency products on its trading platform, and Vanguard also refuses to offer cryptocurrency products, saying that cryptocurrency is more like speculation than investment, which is the fundamental reason why the company decided not to provide related products.
#BTC

Despite mining rewards now being reduced by 50%, U.S. cryptocurrency mining stocks are still rising in the first trading day after Bitcoin's weekend halving. Marathon Digital (MARA), CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT) Cipher Mining (CIFR) and Hut 8 (HUT) all rose in the trading day on April 22. Although the market has been suppressed recently by high inflation, rising bond yields and speculation about the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, Bitcoin is expected to rebound this week with the release of earnings reports from major technology companies, along with the easing of tensions in the Middle East and the impending economic crisis. #BTC

After the Bitcoin halving, the plunge of miners expected by many analysts did not happen. On the contrary, as Runes protocol launched a craze for etching runes, Bitcoin transaction fees skyrocketed, and miners became the biggest winners. Bitcoin miners yesterday Revenue reached an all-time high of $107 million. Of course, at present, this will only be a flash in the pan. As the rune craze recedes, Bitcoin transaction fees have dropped significantly. According to mempool data:

The current non-priority fee is 14 Sat ($1.29)
Low priority fee is 76 Sat ($6.98)
Medium priority fee is 84 Sat ($7.71 USD)
High priority fee is 93 Sat ($8.54)

#比特币减半

I found that Americans are a bit crazy about Bitcoin price predictions. Wood Sister's predictions shocked everyone. Recently, another big brother came to make trouble. Tim Draper, a well-known venture capital godfather in Silicon Valley, an early investor in Bitcoin, and the founder of Draper Associates, recently made a shocking statement in an exclusive interview with the podcast Searching for Mana, saying that Bitcoin will rise to unimaginable levels: Bitcoin reaching $250,000 or $1 million, $2 million, or even $10 million is a possible number. Although this big brother correctly predicted that Bitcoin would exceed $10,000 in 2017, Tim Draper had previously predicted many times that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 in 2022, but later it was proved that this prediction was completely inaccurate. #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

In the past three Bitcoin halvings, Bitcoin may fluctuate within a month, but in the next year, the price will increase by at least three-digit percentages:

First halving in 2012: Bitcoin rose 9% a month later, and soared 8,839% in the next year 2016
Second halving: Bitcoin fell 9% a month later, and soared 285% in the next year 2020
Third halving: Bitcoin rose 6% a month later, and soared 548% in the next year

Although BTC prices have been sluggish recently, the Bitcoin halving countdown data shows that there are less than three days left before the fourth halving, which is expected to start at 8 am on Saturday, April 20, Taiwan time. The big one is coming!
#BTC

Affected by the tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, Bitcoin fell by more than 15% in two days, triggering a larger correction in other altcoins, further pushing up the Bitcoin market share index (BTC.D) to 57.03%, a three-year high.

This phenomenon also reflects that the market is in the early stages of a bull market. Compared with the 2021 bull market, when BTC.D mostly fluctuated between 40% and 48%, the current level above 55% indicates the strength of Bitcoin. Usually when the bull market really arrives, the gains of most altcoins will exceed Bitcoin, causing BTC.D to fall.

#BTC

Driven by the rebound of Bitcoin, altcoins began to rise generally. TON has the largest increase in the past 24 hours, reaching 16.99%, and its market value has surpassed Dogecoin (DOGE) to become the eighth largest token. According to official statistics from Ton.app, the TON ecosystem currently has 647 applications, covering 19 tracks such as staking, wallets, browsers, cross-chain bridges, infrastructure, NFT, social, and games. TON has received frequent positive news in the past two months, which has stimulated its currency price to continue to rise. This week, it broke through $7.5 and set a new record high, and it has soared by more than 300% in the past two months. #BTC

Bitcoin fell all the way from Friday's high of $71,230 to $60,000 earlier, due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East and Iran's confirmation this morning that it had launched a large number of drones and missiles at Israel. The decline was as high as 15% in two days. So is the bull market over? I don't think so! Judging from the price trend of BTC after breaking through the all-time high (ATH), the current Bitcoin bull market frenzy stage (price discovery stage) may still be in its early stages.
From the data analysis chart provided by Glassnode below, it can be seen that after breaking through the ATH in the past, the price of Bitcoin has experienced a retracement of more than 10% many times, and a retracement of more than 25% is also very common; in this cycle (black line), since Bitcoin broke through the all-time high, there have been only two declines of more than 10%. #比特币减半

Germany's largest bank Deutsche Bank surveyed more than 3,600 consumers and found that 52% of respondents believed that cryptocurrencies would become "important asset classes and payment methods" in the future. In contrast, in a September 2023 poll, less than 40% of respondents were optimistic about cryptocurrencies. But despite the optimism about future popularity, a third of American respondents expect Bitcoin to fall below $20,000 by the end of 2024, but the number of people holding this view is decreasing, as in February, as many as 35% of respondents held this view, and in January it was 36%. However, the number of respondents who believe that cryptocurrency is "just a fashion that will eventually disappear" has dropped to less than 1%, and although Bitcoin is now close to $75,000, only 10% of respondents expect Bitcoin to be above $75,000 by the end of this year. Analysts say the recent Bitcoin rally is driven by enthusiasm for Bitcoin spot ETFs and expectations of interest rate cuts, and some analysts believe that Bitcoin's recent return to $70,000 is a sign that investors are no longer paying attention to risk warnings. #BTC

Bitcoin started off poorly in April, falling from $71,000 in early April to a low of $64,494 on the 3rd. However, it has rebounded in recent days and broke through the $69,000 mark today.

Companiesmarketcap data shows that as Bitcoin rebounds, its market value has reached $1.368 trillion, exceeding the combined market value of the world's top four banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), and Wells Fargo.

The combined market value of these four banks is $1.3 trillion, of which JPMorgan Chase is $568.72 billion, Bank of America is $292.82 billion, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is $244.06 billion, and Wells Fargo is $203.21 billion.
In addition, after the price of Ethereum rose to $3,388, its market value has reached $407.29 billion. If compared with the market value of banks, it has surpassed Bank of America, the world's second largest bank by market value, and is only behind JPMorgan Chase.
#BTC

Binance Launchpool has launched its 51st "New Coin Mining" project Saga ($SAGA), a Layer 1 that helps developers quickly launch private chains. So what is Saga (SAGA)?

Saga is a Layer 1 protocol that allows developers to develop parallel and interoperable private chains for different virtual machines - Chainlets, which can be elastically expanded according to the needs of their Web3 applications.

The native token of the protocol is $SAGA, which has the following features:

Payment of Chainlets: Developers pay $SAGA tokens to network validators to keep their Chainlets operating.

Staking: Stakers help secure the network and receive $SAGA tokens and tokens of projects built on the Saga protocol as rewards.

Governance: $SAGA token holders will be able to vote on network governance decisions.

Currently, Saga has successfully raised $15 million, and investors include Placeholder, Maven11, Longhash, Samsung, Com2uS, Polygon, Merit Circle, Figment and Chorus One. #SAGA

The US government has confiscated a large number of Bitcoins from the Bitfinex hacking case, Silk Road and other related cases. It is currently the sixth largest Bitcoin whale in the world, holding more than 210,000 Bitcoins, with a current price of approximately US$13.97 billion. Just in the early hours of this morning, the US government transferred 30,175 Bitcoins (current price of approximately US$1.96 billion), of which 2,000 Bitcoins (current price of approximately US$130 million) were transferred to Coinbase. This record shows that the US government may have sold some Bitcoins. currency.
The number of Bitcoins transferred to Coinbase this time is comparable to the 2,858 Bitcoins confiscated in connection with the Silk Road case announced by the US government at the end of January this year, which increases the possibility that the US government will sell Bitcoins. However, the U.S. government is expected to sell slowly in batches or OTC instead of selling it all at once. The U.S. Marshals Service has previously stated that it will try to prevent any adverse impact on the market. #BTC

At about 10:33 this morning, the price of Bitcoin once fell to $66,000. Compared with about 4:00 this morning, Bitcoin continued to maintain a level close to $70,000, with the largest drop in 24 hours reaching nearly 5.6%. Although Bitcoin is currently rebounding slightly at $6,6830, it still looks weak. Some of the fluctuations in Ethereum (ETH) were even more severe. After briefly reaching $3,570 last night, it hit $33,195 this morning. The largest decline in the past 24 hours was 7.1%. With Bitcoin plunging from nearly 70,000 to 66,000 US dollars, according to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of cryptocurrency liquidation across the entire network exceeded 470 million US dollars, of which the long position liquidation was as high as 400 million US dollars. More than 153,000 people were liquidated, and it can be said that corpses were everywhere. #BTC