Can people in the currency circle fall asleep in the middle of the night?
In the evening, I met a woman in the currency circle. She chatted with me about mev, rwa, and lsd.
Chatting about pbs, chatting about dao, chatting about web3, chatting about univ4, chatting about bot. On Thursday, she said she wanted to eat KFC.

In 2024, Bitcoin rose from 40,000 to 73,800.
There are definitely many people who make money in spot Bitcoin.
Here I will only talk about contracts.
The contract has experienced the anniversary of the 414 crash in the past 4 months.
You can look at and ask anyone who plays contracts. Basically, 90% of contract players in this bull market are losing money. Including many masters and predecessors.
If you can't lose money, you have already outperformed 90% of contract players.
I know many people are not convinced, but this contract market is very cruel. If you don't lose money, you can beat 90% of people.
If the rate of return exceeds 50%, you can beat 95% of people. The rate of return is several times that of a thousand. This is the real player data in the contract market.

Market analysis: If the price of Bitcoin falls back within the day but does not break the low point of last night, it will rebound. The short-term pressure is 62500-63000. If it breaks through, it will focus on the high point of yesterday, 64400. If the bulls are weak, the pressure will not be broken and it will continue to fall back to confirm the bottom. Pay attention to the support area of ​​59000-59500 below. If the closing line in this area does not break the structural pattern, it will fluctuate higher after the bottom consolidation in the future market.
From the review, we can see that the bitcoin bottomed out last night, and the altcoins and bitcoin have diverged, and many altcoins turned red during the bitcoin decline, which is an obvious performance of protecting the market, and many altcoins have reached the bottom of the price, and have the conditions for medium and long-term layout. Often, when bitcoin, as a mainstream variety, makes up for the decline, it also indicates that this wave of adjustment has begun to enter the final stage. At present, many altcoins are 20-30% away from the previous low point. Even if the bitcoin continues to bottom out in the future, the altcoins will only return to the low point of the second decline at most. This is also the position where everyone originally added positions. Therefore, once the bitcoin consolidation ends in the future market, the altcoin sector will definitely rebound first and go out of the expected main rising wave market. The trend market spot is king, and time will prove everything.
1: Bitcoin fell from 68,000 to 60,200, some altcoins hit new lows, and some were still near the original lows
2: Bitcoin fell from 66,800 to 61,600, and altcoins maintained 20-30% above the lows
3: Bitcoin fell from 64,400 to 59,684, and altcoins still maintained 10-20% above the lowest point
So Bitcoin continued to fall by a few thousand points, and altcoins could only return to the low point of the second decline at most, which was the original position for everyone to increase their positions, and many coins could not return to the lowest point even if Bitcoin fell by 59,000. Judging from multiple dimensions, the altcoin sector is already near the bottom, with limited room for decline. The previous hype bubble has been effectively released. Those who have already been fully invested can use their time to lie flat for space, and those who have positions can enter the market in batches at low prices.

The Bitcoin price has been in a downward trend for a long time. When will it stop falling? When will it reverse? This is the question in the minds of most traders at present. They are also asking around and discussing this issue.
As far as the current situation is concerned, from a technical point of view, the market is always in a downward trend. The current price is at the low point of the pattern, an important watershed position!
In addition, Bitcoin is about to be halved, and the market's expectations for this are accumulating!
The passage of spot ETFs connects the crypto market with the traditional market. Investors in many markets will pay attention to this market, and corresponding funds will also be attracted. This is a long-term positive for the market! Therefore, the general trend this year will be better!
Judging from the K-line trend, Bitcoin at the support level may stop falling and turn to shock in recent days.

From the time Bitcoin hit the pin to around 606, there have been large amounts of U in and out of various transactions (in billions) in the past two days, and the market has been constantly fluctuating.
Last night, Lao Baotou spoke, and one sentence could cause the market to fluctuate by thousands of points. After Lao Baotou finished speaking, the probability that futures market traders bet on more than one interest rate cut this year is also decreasing. After all, the market needs money. Without money, it's all nonsense. ETF funds are gradually weakening. BlackRock barely took over Grayscale's selling pressure, and the other 9 institutions' inflows and outflows are not that large.
Last night, Tether issued 1 billion more, and the net issuance was 880 million, but Tether is now starting to mine (less than 10% of the total BTC can be mined. With this market value, it is estimated that it is not so easy for SEC to take it. In the past, SEC would ask Tether for some money every year. It killed BUSDC the year before last and USDC last year) Although Tether is the leader of stablecoins, we cannot just look at Tether's actions. Although USDC has a low market value, it represents the purchasing power of the US market. After all, the initiative is basically in the hands of the US market. The Asian market has a large trading volume, but the nature of Chinese people is well understood. (It is worth noting that Shuibi received a USDT of 50 million or 500 million last night to AA, and it was transferred out half an hour later) If you buy and sell U, try to trade S. It is not easy to do large amounts now. You can only buy slowly. Don't be bothered to go offline. Many people have been deceived recently.

Bitcoin truly realizes the sanctity of private property! It is especially important in times of great turmoil.

Why do I firmly believe that Bitcoin is the future? Its goal has never been to replace legal tender, but to become a store of value for mankind.

We start from the most fundamental logic. Humans must save money when they make money. So far, there are the following categories that can be used as store of value:

1. Gold. Disadvantages: It is inconvenient to carry, so you can just pass it.

2. Cash. The disadvantages are the same as above. No one will keep a million at home.

3. Deposit in the bank. Two disadvantages: First, there is a risk of risk control in bank accounts. At least during this period of risk control, the wealth does not belong to you, because you cannot use it during this period, so there is a lack of absolute security. Second: depreciation. Private property is sacred and inviolable, and legal tender will depreciate as the country's currency is released, but the released water is not distributed to you in equal proportion, so your wealth is harvested invisibly.

Humans have never solved these problems before. This is why people who enter the Internet age and truly understand Bitcoin will call it the greatest invention of the 21st century. You can carry the Bitcoin ledger anywhere, just bring your brain. The stable number of coins and no additional issuance ensures that your coins will never depreciate (using legal currency to measure the value of Bitcoin is a kind of upside-down behavior, which is meaningless, because one coin is always one, and the value of legal currency itself is always changing). Decentralization guarantees absolute security.

Decentralization truly realizes the most important value in human history: private property is sacred and inviolable!

Bitcoin has gone through 16 years, and its rapid development is exciting, but it is still just a small step. Even if measured by the length of human life, it is just a child, and its future is worth looking forward to. Human wealth will eventually need to find the most suitable store of value.

How to formulate your own trading plan? I provide the following factors to consider. Let's encourage each other and give more suggestions.

(1) Set your own profit target. There can be two values, a maximum target such as 100 times, and a conservative target. Although the target is your own fantasy, you must have it. This is your own goal positioning. All subsequent plans are carried out to achieve this goal. Therefore, you must have this goal. Even if it cannot be achieved, it is normal. Similar to the company's sales performance in the new year, a high target is set and everyone is working towards this goal.

(2) Plan how much cost to invest. That is, how much start-up capital is there for the target plan and how much funds can be used.

(3) How to allocate positions. Is it all mainstream? Or all bets on copycats? Or what proportion of each? This also needs to be planned.

(4) After selecting the position allocation, you also need to choose which track, which currency to choose in each track, and how much capital to invest in each currency.

(5) Where to start building a position. Is it to build a position all at once or in batches, and what proportion of each position to build each time.

(6) When to withdraw and how much to withdraw. For some old coins, you can make a rough top prediction based on historical data. This prediction can be divided into conservative values ​​and maximum values. When you reach the target value you set, how to withdraw, whether to clear the position all at once, or to withdraw at 334, or how to withdraw, you need to plan it well.

(7) Emergency handling. How to deal with emergencies.

After establishing your own plan, you must write it out and use Excel to manage your position statistics, so as to establish a planning model and predict whether you can make 100 times. And you will not panic in the subsequent operations. Before each operation, you can check what your original plan was and whether you have reached the target range. If not, do you need to adjust the plan next?

The establishment of a trading plan can also be understood as managing your own positions. How to allocate your own positions, what proportion of mainstream coins account for, what proportion of copycat coins account for, and what proportion of each coin account for the cost, this needs to be managed in daily transactions.Establishing your own position management will help us calm our mindset

10 investment rules in the cryptocurrency circle

1. If you lose money, it is either a cognitive problem (insufficient cognition, cognitive bias); or a cash-out problem (motivation problem, behavioral bias); or a mismatch between knowledge and action

2. If you are playing an air coin that chases ups and downs, don't fantasize that it can change the world. That is an illusion you have ignited, so shine for a short time.

3. If you invest in Bitcoin, don't just look at the minute line, look at a larger cycle, and look at the big picture of the phenomenon from 2 anomalies to 69,000 from 2011 to 2021.

4. Before 10 million, you can speculate and pursue high returns; after 10 million, what you need is investment. Speculation is about fast in and out, and investment is about compound interest.

5. Many people find it difficult to cross the gap between speculation and investment. Once they have experienced the stimulation of fast in and out, they can no longer adapt to the loss of making money slowly, and they will eventually

6. The best investment is to invest in yourself. With cognition, you can make money without money; with money, you can lose all your money without cognition.

7. The bull market investment trend makes profits flow; the pattern is enlarged.

8. If you lose money, it is worthwhile to turn the lost money into cognition. As long as you cognize, you can get back all your money.

9. Pay attention to the unchanging things, so that you can be clearer. The price of Bitcoin is changing, but its underlying logic has not changed, and Bitcoin's innovative way of storing value has not changed.

10. Investment should go with the trend, but think in reverse. When the market reaches the top and bottom, the market sentiment is almost no short; when it reaches the bottom, the market sentiment is almost no long.

A person's investment level is determined by his philosophy. If a person has a good philosophy, his investment level will be far higher than most people. Putting a lot of money in a place where you don't need to make decisions is the highest level of philosophy. Letting money take root and sprout in one place is the highest level of investment. If a person can do it without making decisions, his level will be very high. On the other hand, if a person makes a lot of decisions, or wants to make decisions every day, and looks very hardworking, can such a person make money? I think it is impossible. I basically don't make any decisions on the coins I buy, I can keep loneliness and make a lot of money

ETH is weakening, will this bull market be replaced by another coin?
From the perspective of the institutions applying for BTC ETF, they are basically Jewish capital. Several institutions, mainly BlackRock, are eating up Grayscale's chips. Grayscale is forced to sell, and this round will completely change the dealer
What does it have to do with ETH? From the origin of V God, ETH belongs to Slavic°, not Jewish. Sol is also driven by Jewish capital, so you will find that basically Jewish projects have performed very well in this round, but ETH has been suppressed. If the Ethereum ecosystem is close to the Jewish system in the future, then there will be great opportunities, which is also a good investment direction
BTC's market value is benchmarked against gold. If BTC replaces gold to take over the liquidity of the US dollar in the future, and then the United States uses BTC to harvest the world, this is a very terrifying conspiracy, but it is also the only good opportunity for ordinary people. In the last round of bull market, Grayscale alone could push the pie to more than 60,000. In this round, Jewish capital is much stronger than Grayscale, so the imagination of BTC in the big bull market is still relatively large.
The Jewish system is roughly: BTC ecology, Ai sector, Solana ecology, and Ondo, an RWA track; Slavic system: ETH; Anglo-Saxon system: Meme sector; In the past, the bull market was divided into sectors, but now it is divided into factions.
In any industry, insiders make money from outsiders.

According to BlockBeats, on April 17, Fed Chairman Powell said: "Strong inflation in the first quarter has brought new uncertainty to whether and when the Fed will be able to cut interest rates later this year. If high inflation persists, the Fed can maintain the current interest rate as long as it is necessary." Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," said Powell's latest remarks indicate a clear shift in the Fed's outlook after inflation data was stronger than expected for the third consecutive month, which seems to have dashed hopes that the Fed may preemptively cut interest rates. Futures markets show that market expectations for Fed rate cuts have further declined after Powell's comments on inflation, and investors are now betting that there will be only one or two rate cuts this year, with expectations of around 40 basis points.

300,000 yuan of capital, earning 10 times, is 3 million yuan.

After that, use 1 million yuan each time to participate in several opportunities of dozens of times, which is tens of millions.

After that, use several million yuan to participate in several opportunities of 10 times or dozens of times, which is hundreds of millions.

It doesn't look difficult at all, but in fact it requires both luck and a deep understanding of the industry, track, and project, as well as practical experience in risks, positions, etc.

Of course, the most important thing is to dare to brag and have imagination😇

At 20,000: I don’t believe in a bull market, blockchain scam
At 30,000: It’s obviously a trap, it will continue to fall
At 40,000: This has finally reached the top, the waterfall is coming
At 50,000: It’s accelerating to the top, run away
At 60,000: The bull market is coming, do you want to set up a bottom position
At 70,000: Damn, blockchain revolution, get on board.
At 60,000: Encryption is over, game over! ​​​

Trading is all about the profit-loss ratio. The money earned from winning one order is greater than the money lost from making several orders.
In some cases, the money earned from winning one order can change your life. For example, 200,000 yuan can change your life by betting 15 times of 3 million yuan.
The premise is confidence. Believe in yourself. You are your own king and your own god.
If you don’t believe in yourself, you might as well go to work in a factory.
If you are lucky, you will definitely fail.
Only by letting go of the real desire to win and lose and enjoying the process can you see the real god’s hand.
This circle does not withdraw cash, does not manage positions well, and does not leave a way out for itself. As long as you stay in the market, it is easy to cut wood from a thousand miles away in one day, whether it is leverage or spot.

Who actually made the money in this market? I have been observing recently and finally discovered this shocking secret. Those who said they were short at the highest point when the market fell and went all-in at the lowest point when the market rose made our money. I really envy them, they deserve to make money, their technology is really amazing. ​​​

There is nothing much to say. Trading is about waiting with empty positions, opening positions, holding positions, and closing positions. Most of the time is spent waiting. When the opportunity comes, it is useless to watch the market and not dare to do it.

In Gu Long's novels, there is a top trader named Ximen Chuxue, and his trading seat is called Wanmei Villa. Ximen Chuxue only goes out four times a year, and each time he kills only one person, and never fails. The rest of the time, he only does one thing at home: practicing swordsmanship.

In our trading career, only 10% of the time is spent on trading. The rest of the time is spent on watching and thinking.

The core of trading is not what to buy, but not to buy and wait.

The currency market is a very normal adjustment. Don't get excited when it rises or panic when it falls. There is no market that only rises and never falls, and there is no market that only falls and never rises.

In the long run, an upward trend is enough. In the medium term, it is a cyclical fluctuation. In the short term, you can only guess.

It is suitable for hoarding in the long term, suitable for large waves in the medium term, and suitable for professionals in the short term. Find a time period that suits you. The length of time should be adjusted according to the market. After guessing the trend, you must dare to enter the market and hold it. Don't rush to get off before the trend ends.

Do a good job of position allocation and adjust your mentality. Only by doing things with a high probability can you make a lot of money with a high probability.

Who actually made the money in this market? I have been observing recently and finally discovered this shocking secret. Those who said they were short at the highest point when the market fell and went all-in at the lowest point when the market rose made our money. I really envy them, they deserve to make money, their technology is really amazing. ​​​

If you become financially free in this bull market, what kind of job would you do? What kind of life would you lead? ​​​

The rules of BTC's large-scale pullback in the last bull market:

1. Pullback time: There were 5 large-scale pullbacks in the last bull market, 4 of which lasted within 2-3 weeks, and only one lasted for 3 months;

2. Pullback depth: The pullback depth is mostly around 20%, and only once was due to the 519 incident caused by China's ban on virtual currency, and the pullback depth was 50%;

3: Second exploration: There were 5 large-scale pullbacks with second explorations, and the average drop from the previous low position of the second exploration to the pin was 4-7 points;

Based on this, we can make a conclusion on this round of pullback:

1. Pullback time: This round of decline starts from the first time that Bitcoin stabilizes at 70,000. At present, It has been maintained for a month, and has entered the time range where Bitcoin may end its correction;

2. Correction depth: This round of decline has corrected from 73 to 60,000, a correction of 18%, which is the same as the 4 small-level corrections in the previous bull market;

3. Second exploration situation: There may be a lack of a second exploration at present. According to the rules of the previous second exploration, the low point of Bitcoin's second exploration will be between 55-58;

So if you believe that the bull market is still there, then the final low point of Bitcoin's correction in this round will be between 55-58. In addition, the decline of this round of decline has approached the level of 519, so I think the expected low point of Bitcoin may be raised. I currently tend to think that the low point will be above 55.