Summary: In the past year, the price of Bitcoin fell by 65% ​​throughout the year, with the maximum drop of 77%.

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What everyone has experienced in 2022 is probably hard to describe in words. Whether it is investment, or the real economy and life, I think it is not an exaggeration to describe it as "miserable", but so what? Optimism is a kind of talent, and it is also the way for currency friends to win in this market. The principle of simplicity and the long-term belief in this circle are the root of profits and losses. In this era of gradual solidification of classes, we must stand on the shoulders of giants. Go forward. First, let us briefly review several major events that occurred in the past year.

April 24, 2024 Grandpa checks in
According to The Block, the SEC asked the public to comment on the revised Ethereum spot exchange-traded fund by BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company. After BlackRock submitted an application for an Ethereum spot ETF in November last year, it was postponed by the SEC in January this year, and Nasdaq revised the proposal in April. According to the previous Bitcoin path, it is basically certain that Ethereum will pass the ETF, but it is hard to say when. At present, there is basically no possibility of passing in the short term, and this solicitation of opinions is still preliminary.
Anyway, I still have confidence in Ethereum in the long term. After all, Ethereum has already confirmed its second place in the B-chain. Basically, the same treatment that Bitcoin enjoys will be given to Bitcoin in the future. Since this wave, Ethereum's growth rate has not been as high as Bitcoin, and there is no new outbreak point in the development and application of the chain. The old players are all silent in the summer of DeFi. However, looking at the new hot spots this year, are there any new innovations? Including Brc20, they are just redefinition of the protocol layer, and the various flying second layers are basically following the DeFi path of Ethereum. In this way, what reason is there not to be optimistic about the future of Ethereum?

April 23, 2024 Grandpa checks in
Recently, Sun has been buying Ethereum like crazy. According to the data on the chain, he has bought hundreds of millions of dollars of Ethereum in the recent bottom-fishing. Although we all say that Sun's coins should not be bought, and only a few people really make money from so many projects, and the hot projects launched later are basically aborted, but Sun's top-escaping and bottom-fishing operations are still worth learning from. It can be said that the recent Ethereum did not break down with the altcoins during the decline of the market, perhaps Sun has contributed a little, and Sun also took a lot of Ethereum to play restaking projects, which is still very attractive.

April 21, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The market continues to rebound. Judging from the trend of Bitcoin, the daily level is still on the rise, but other coins are a little weak today. If you have been buying the dips a lot in the past few days, you can consider selling some first. According to the previous logic, the coins that followed the market's plunge will definitely take more than a few days to recover. There will be a shock process in the near future to further digest the plunge, and at the same time, wash the chips that bought the dips, in preparation for further pull-ups. The next key still depends on the trend of Bitcoin, since the upward trend has not stopped.

April 20, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The overall market rebounded, especially the cottage and mainstream sectors. Strong currencies have increased by more than 20% compared to the sideways price, which is worth my asking everyone to buy the bottom these days. Judging from the trend, this wave of big cakes has the strongest support, which is the biggest source of confidence for us to dare to buy the bottom, and Ethereum has also received support at 3,000 points. In fact, for the bull market, Ethereum at this price is already very cost-effective in my opinion. As for if you want to wait for a more cost-effective moment, you can only hold on for a while, as this wave is more difficult.

April 19, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The fourth Bitcoin halving has been completed, and the block reward has been reduced from 6.25 to 3.125, which is still a historic moment. It is worth noting that the last block before the halving, the 840,000th block mined by ViaBTC, contained a total of 3,050 transactions, and the total block reward was actually 40.751 BTC. The original block reward of Bitcoin was set at 50. After four halvings, the number of block rewards is already low enough. As more and more people use and adopt it, the ideal situation is that as the subsequent block halving rewards are further reduced, the handling fees are sufficient to support network security.

April 19, 2024 Grandpa checks in
BN is going to launch the Megadrop platform recently. I believe everyone knows that this platform is actually a mechanism for distributing airdrop tokens according to points. Since this year, the model of distributing tokens through points has been recognized by many projects and gradually evolved into a new paradigm. BN's actions often represent a model in the industry. Therefore, this model of distributing tokens will be recognized by more projects in the future, and I have repeatedly recommended that you have time to go deep into the early interactions of the project.
Merlin is launched tonight, and it adopts a points system. However, this point system is mainly linked to the assets of the cross-chain. This time, the airdrop rewards are relatively large, and the rate of return for early participation is still very good. From this point of view, this point system is very important for the cold start of the project. Merlin, a project with the slogan of Btc L2, has basically succeeded. From this point of view, this year is a bit like a year of concentrated outbreak of L2. Whether it is a project driven by capital or a project started by the community, the market value is very high, but to be honest, I really think there is not much innovation.

April 18, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The market is still hovering at a low level after the decline. Last night, Bitcoin also briefly fell below 60,000. From the daily line structure, it fits the second bottoming out that I mentioned. In fact, the altcoins and mainstream coins have stopped falling. This situation often indicates the emergence of bottom-fishing power. Therefore, the support at this position deserves attention.
The 60,000 mark of Bitcoin is still worth a try. The decline from the high has exceeded 20%, which has never happened in this round of market, and can be regarded as a retracement for the time being. In this case, when the opportunity arises, you should be more greedy, at least the risk of entering now is much smaller than before.

April 17, 2024 Grandpa checks in
After Hong Kong approved the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF, there have been recent reports that other Asian regions such as South Korea, Japan and Singapore may follow Hong Kong's example and launch crypto asset ETF products. ETFs are a real boon to the entire crypto industry, which has already been reflected in the U.S. market. These crypto-friendly regions account for a large share of crypto transactions, and once approved, they will bring more funds to pull the market.
It is worth noting that this time Hong Kong plans to open an ETF for ETH at the same time. This differentiation may bring unexpected competitive advantages, but the specific situation remains to be seen. In any case, for the crypto industry, Ethereum's second place position is basically unshakable. If you don't like to invest in big coins, you can choose Ethereum.

April 16, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The market failed to form a V-shaped reversal, but rebounded slightly and then stepped back, forming a small-scale shock. The market has experienced a sharp drop, and it will definitely take time to repair. It is difficult to rebound directly in the short term, but there is definitely no problem buying at this position. If you have a good sense of the market, you can also do some swing trading. The risk at this position is definitely much smaller.
Another thing is that the fees, which have been high before, have fallen recently, and many have even fallen to negative values, indicating that the market has turned bearish in the short term. Because there are many pledged projects in this round, I guess many have started hedging. In any case, the fees are still effective. I felt that the high cost of funds was difficult to maintain before, and the recent drop shows that the risk is much smaller.

April 15, 2024 Grandpa checks in
According to reports, Harvest Global Asset Management Co., Ltd. announced today that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved in principle Harvest's investment in two major digital assets, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF products. This means that Hong Kong has chosen to follow the US's operations in terms of policy and found spot ETFs that are more suitable for traditional investors. As early as last year, Hong Kong started a pilot program related to cryptocurrency trading with great fanfare, but there was no sign of capital entering the spot trading volume. This ETF is theoretically good, but the degree of good news may be minimal.

April 14, 2024 Grandpa checks in
"414" has once again become a day that B-circle people will never forget. After experiencing a big drop yesterday, a big negative line fell from the support of 66,000 points in the early morning of this morning, and the lowest hit the integer support of 60,000 points. Although Bread has rebounded above 64,000, the already fragile market has been dragged down by Bread again and experienced a second plunge. In yesterday's article, I also mentioned this possibility and suggested that everyone wait until it stabilizes before buying the bottom. At present, Bread has led a decline in the market, and the price and cost performance of the copycat has fallen.

April 13, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The market was slaughtered in the early morning. People who like high leverage may find that their positions are gone when they wake up in the morning. Even if the spot positions held by the copycat are too large, the book losses of this wave are not small. In the past period of time, I have made sufficient reminders on the risk control of the market. Whether it is the time window or the price window, we have many opportunities to stop profit. As I said before, my personal positions have been halved relative to the bear market, and the funds sold are used for arbitrage. I am still very satisfied with this wave of operations. Although the positions held inevitably incurred losses, they are all within an acceptable range. After all, no one can accurately predict the decline before it.

April 12, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The market remained sideways, but the altcoin sector fell a bit. In addition to the tokens that I mentioned a few days ago, such as TRB and TIA, which were obviously controlled by the main players in the early stage, many other altcoins have not reached new highs for a long time. Looking at the entire market, BNB is close to a new high with the support of Launchpad, and there is no sign of stopping the issuance of new coins. The market now seems to be full of smart money, unwilling to take too much risk for the subsequent rising market, and more certainty is needed.
UNI has also experienced a significant decline in the past two days. Affected by the negative news, the SEC has issued a warning to Uniswap Labs and may take enforcement action. The market is still cautious about this. After all, the dividend plan of holding UNI may be affected. In addition, if it is targeted by the SEC, at least a layer of skin will be peeled off, and the market is quite worried about this.

April 11, 2024 Grandpa checks in
Last night, the CPI for March was released, slightly exceeding expectations. After the data came out, the market expressed some concerns about the next interest rate cut. The current probability of a rate cut in September is 46%, and the probability of a second rate cut in December is 33%, while the three rate cuts mentioned earlier may not be realized. In fact, from the perspective of the US stock market, there has been a strong bull market since the end of October last year, including the stock markets of many other countries and risky assets such as Bitcoin, which have staged a crazy rise in advance.
After experiencing the previous flooding, investors have understood how risky assets will perform after interest rate cuts. Although the market has fallen after a long period of interest rate hikes, the fundamentals of the economy show no signs of collapse, so market confidence has recovered faster than ever before. Why do I say that it will take 25 years for the big bull market in the B circle? It is precisely because we have not started to cut interest rates yet. The resonance of capital release and halving cycle will bring greater confidence to the market next year. If this round of bull market is driven by ETF funds, then next year's big bull market will be the overflow of US stock funds, and the volume is not at the same level.

April 10, 2024 Grandpa checks in
Tether's net profit last year was 6.2 billion, but surprisingly, it has only a few hundred employees, which means that the average profit per person is half a billion. No wonder so many people are coveting the stablecoin business. Of course, the success of Tether is inseparable from years of hard work and the support of the consortium and ZZ forces behind it. Now USDT is not only circulated in the B circle, but as far as I know, many gray industries are also using it.
In the last cycle, there were many cases of Fud USDT, but there has been no such incident in this cycle. Regarding stablecoins, if there is a demand for storage, they still need to be stored in various forms for a long time, such as USDC. At present, the volume of stablecoins is sufficient for daily transaction needs, but it is precisely because of the large volume that we should take appropriate defense. In fact, there are still many ancient whales who like to use B for defense, such as BTC and ETH. For them, they will not sell unless it is an extreme situation.

April 9, 2024 Grandpa checks in
Bitcoin fell below 70,000 again, which means that this wave of strong market is still blocked at the pressure level, and it is effective to sell the bottom-picking positions at highs. However, the time window for this wave is not long, and the rise of other coins is not strong enough, so there are not many shipments. At present, the pressure level above 70,000 Bitcoin has become a small consensus, and it can only be effectively broken through with a needle.
Today, the SEC postponed its decision on Bitwish and Grayscale's Bitcoin spot ETF options trading applications, which means that the spot ETF market will take longer to verify. The Ethereum ETF that the market is looking forward to will basically not be approved in the short term. In fact, the Ethereum market has been weak, which is also in line with market expectations.

April 8, 2024 Grandpa checks in
In the past two days, a new concept BVM has emerged and appeared in the public eye. The transaction volume and price of Bitcoin inscription ecology and on-chain NFT have both increased. The market value of Runestone has exceeded BAYC, which means that the top NFT brand in the Bitcoin ecology has officially surpassed the top NFT brand in the Ethereum ecology. At the same time, the discussion on ecological expansion has become lively again, and RGB++ has gradually been mentioned by more projects. From this point of view, the inscription NFT market in the Bitcoin ecology may once again exert its strength and become the driving force for a new round of market conditions.
In fact, the launch of the last round of market was also prompted by BRC20. ORDI and other stocks were listed on the stock exchange one after another. The beautiful wealth-making stories attracted a large number of newcomers to enter the market. With the support of ETF, the price of Bitcoin has been rising all the way. Perhaps affected by this wave of Bitcoin ecological NFT market, the price of Bitcoin has once again reached 70,000, and is currently around 71,000, just a few points away from the new high of 73,000. Although the market has not risen much, the rise of Bitcoin can basically eliminate the decline caused by the previous negative market.

April 7, 2024 Grandpa checks in
There is a Web3 conference in Hong Kong these days, but according to the situation on site, it seems to be similar to that in the mainland. There are more project parties and staff around the venue than users. People on social media outside the venue are crowded, but no one is interested in the introduction of the project party. This also reflects a current situation, that is, there are many people coming to the circle to dig for gold, while the proportion of secondary market investors is relatively small, so making money has become more professional. Of course, overall, the funds and talents coming to the circle are growing positively. If you have a skill, you should make more money in theory.

April 6, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The holiday market continues to be flat. At present, the short-term decline has stopped. This position of Bitcoin is temporarily maintained. The probability of continued decline is small. If you add a certain position at this position, you can hold the currency and wait. After this wave of decline, the funding rate has fallen rapidly, and some have reached the most basic rate range, but there is still a bullish sentiment overall. There is no need to worry about falling too fast. After all, the bulls have already admitted a lot. If it really falls again, you can add some more in batches. However, the price gradient can be set according to the price of Bitcoin. The next big bargain hunting price range is between 60-61k.