Analysis of the market on August 20: Wait for Bitcoin to fall in the 1h level before considering a short position

五柳先生 · 2023-08-20T12:30:57.000Z

Share daily The big pie was running a 1h-level rebound yesterday and today. This rebound is almost done, but the rebound strength is relatively weak. After this weak rebound ends, we will see a 1h-level decline. Since the accelerated decline the day before yesterday, the overall short-term market framework remains unchanged. Regardless of whether it is a 1h-level rebound, a 1h-level decline, or a 4h-level rebound, there is a high probability that it is just repeated shocks around the 25,000~28,000 range. . If you have to add a larger range, then look at the shock in the 24000~28200 range. Don’t think too much about the top. Above 28,500, it has become a staged lockup, and it is very difficult to unwind it. Down to 24,000, there is a high probability that it can be broken in the next few months. It depends on whether the current first daily decline will be broken directly, or whether it will be broken after the third daily decline.

Daily Share
Bitcoin was running a 1h level rebound yesterday and today. This rebound is almost over, and the rebound strength is relatively weak. After this weak rebound ends, we will see a 1h level decline.
Since the accelerated decline the day before yesterday, the overall short-term market framework remains unchanged. Regardless of the 1h level rebound, 1h level decline, or 4h level rebound, it is likely to be repeated fluctuations around the 25000~28000 range. If you have to add a larger range, then look at the fluctuations in the 24000~28200 range.
There is no need to think too much about the upper side. Above 28500, it has become a staged lock-in, and it is very difficult to get out of it. Going down to 24000, it is likely to be broken in the next few months. It depends on whether it will be broken directly by the first daily decline or by the third daily decline.
 
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.
1H：
At the 1h level, the 1h level rebound that started yesterday was long enough in terms of time, but the strength in terms of space is still relatively weak. It would be better if it could go to around 26600. Tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, we will see a 1h level decline to around 25000, and pay close attention to the support around 25000. Later next week, we can still see a 4h level rebound to around 27200.
 
15M：
At the 15-minute level, if it stays above 26100, there is a chance that it will hit 26650 in the evening and then fall at the 1h level. If the 1-hour MACD crosses, it may directly start a 1h level decline.
 
ETH
The same is true for Ethereum. The current 1h-level rebound is actually almost over. In the future, we will see a 1h-level decline to retrace to around 1550, or the 1550-1580 range. Only in this way can the 4h-level decline have a chance to end. The next 4h-level rebound will still focus on the 1700-1800 range. It is difficult to go up to 1800 in the short term, as there are locked-in orders above it.
However, there is another possibility in the short term, that is, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, if ether still does not fall and continues to fluctuate in the range of 1650~1700, then it is possible to build a 1h-level center, and then make a 1h-level decline in the section where the center leaves. Therefore, no matter what method is used, there will be a 1h-level decline in the future to step back to the low point of the previous day's spike.
There is a possibility that Bitcoin may also follow this trend, but I forgot to mention it just now.
 
Trend Direction
Weekly level: Downward direction, weekly level is in the process of oscillating decline
Daily level: The direction is downward. Currently, there is a downward movement at the daily level. Focus on the area around 24000 first.
4-hour level: The direction is downward. The third 4-hour level decline is likely to be around 25,000. The structure is not yet perfect.
1-hour level: The direction is downward, the 1h level rebound is almost over, waiting for a 1h level decline to fall back to around 25,000
15-minute level: the direction is downward or consolidation. If it goes up again, it should be almost a 1h level correction, or it will not fall tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, and continue to fluctuate sideways to build a center.