[Bitcoin ETF and 100k media predictions]
News of the possible approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has been met with mixed reactions from the cryptocurrency community, with optimism on the one hand and caution on the other. While analysts at Bloomberg predict a 90% chance of approval by January 10, some industry observers still have reservations. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has adopted a cautious delay strategy in past reviews of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, as has its legal cases against XRP, Coinbase, and Binance.
Although Bitcoin has surged 165% this year from $16,548 to approximately $44,000, experts believe its $100,000 valuation is not in the near future. It is expected that Bitcoin may first test the 0.702 Fibonacci point near $52,000 before a possible pullback to $32,000. This pattern is in line with historical trends in the cryptocurrency market, where major corrections (sometimes as high as 60%) are part of bull cycles. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s performance has almost always been in lockstep with the Dow Jones.
The current market is complex and volatile, with investor sentiment, regulatory decisions and market dynamics intertwined. Most investors who predicted Bitcoin would fall to $10,000 in November 2022 now predict it could rise to $100,000. The potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF is an important milestone for the industry, but it can also be seen as a narrative. As the crypto market matures, investors and enthusiasts should pay attention to market historical trends and external economic factors and remain cautious.
