How to judge the value of airdrop tokens? How to get airdrops more efficiently?

不做韭菜要做资本 · 2023-08-17T07:26:32.000Z

In fact, the project already has a valuation when it receives institutional financing, such as sei: Institutional valuation: 800 million, FDV online: 2.5 billion US dollars arb: Institutional valuation: 1.2 billion, online FDV: 13 billion sui: Institutional valuation: 2 billion, FDV online: 14 billion US dollars op: Institutional valuation: 1.65 billion, online FDV: 6.5 billion US dollars Why is this important? Because I need to explain it to investors. However, investors generally have a one-year lock-up period, and the team's chips generally also have a one-year lock-in period. 1) There is a high probability that it will not be listed in the late bull market. In this way, the currency price has already dropped by the time the investor/team unlocks it. Therefore, there is a high probability that it will be listed before the bull market.

In fact, the project has already been valued when it was financed by the institution, such as
sei: Institutional valuation: 800 million, online FDV: 2.5 billion US dollars
arb: Institutional valuation: 1.2 billion, online FDV: 13 billion
Sui: Institutional valuation: 2 billion, online FDV: 14 billion US dollars
op: Institutional valuation: 1.65 billion, online FDV: 6.5 billion US dollars
Why is this important? Because you need to explain to your investors. However, investors usually have a one-year lock-up period, and the team's chips also usually have a one-year lock-up period.
1) It is highly likely that the coin will not be listed in the later stage of the bull market. In this way, the price of the coin will have fallen when the investors/team unlock it. Therefore, it is highly likely that the coin will be listed before the bull market.
2) The total market value needs to be explained. If the FDV is relatively low, investors will be unhappy if they keep losing money. If the FDV is relatively high, it will fall all the way, and the market will be locked in. It will be costly to pull the market up in the bull market. So the opening price may be 2 to 8 times the FDV of the investment market value. If the investment time is relatively long, the multiple will be higher. For example, the latest round of ARB was invested in 21 years, so the online price is more than 10 times.
In other words, you can roughly judge the price of the currency on the exchange. But here we can only say roughly, because the range of 2 to 8 times is still too large. So further calculation is needed.
Market capitalizationThe market capitalization of the listed exchanges is:
1) Project quality
The quality of the project belongs to project research, which tests personal ability.
All KOL analysis projects are recommended, but what should ordinary newbies do if they don’t know how to do investment research?
I recommend a relatively simple method, which is to look at the investment institutions and valuations. If a project is invested by a number of star institutions, such as a16z, coinbase, multicoin, blockchain, etc., then it is basically a top project. If it is invested by one or two powerful institutions, with a group of institutions, the project quality is second-rate. If it is invested by only second-rate institutions, you can consider not touching it.
However, if we simply look at the valuation, we need to consider the time. Was it invested a few years ago or recently? Was it invested when the bubble was heavy? The valuation needs to be adjusted to a certain extent. Basically, if there is capital to invest in real money in a bear market, it is still good.
2) Online time
The time of listing is very important, especially for money-grabbing, because you need to sell the airdropped coins as soon as possible. If the market is good, the price will definitely be high.
But there is an important point. Projects with good quality have more say and can be listed at the time they want. For example, arb. Projects with inferior quality have to follow the arrangement of the exchange (mainly Binance), such as Sei and CC. If the market is not good, the market value of the listed exchange will be low.
3) List on Binance
I won’t say much about this. The market value of a project listed on Binance will definitely be high. This depends on the quality of the project.
arb high-quality project, listed in the bull market, airdrop value of 1.2 billion US dollars
A top-notch project in the blur, listed in the bull market, and the airdrop project is worth 400 million US dollars
Sei medium-sized project, poor market, airdrop value of 70 million US dollars
The above cases are listed as references. You can refer to them if you are interested. For example, zksync can be compared with arb, and the estimated airdrop value can reach more than 1 billion US dollars.
Number of addressesThe number of addresses is actually your competitor. The number of addresses can be used to simply calculate the value of the airdrop. For example, zksync has 4 million addresses, so the average address is 250U, so the ordinary address may be 100U, and the high-quality address may be 500~1000U.
Now is a good time to start airdropping because 1) investors/teams lock up their positions for a year, so most projects will choose to list before the big bull market, which is 2024. 2) After experiencing the market conditions in 2022 and 2023, the market conditions in 2024 may be relatively good, so the valuation of listing will also be good.
The quality of the project, the exchange market, and the number of addresses are issues you must consider. After estimating the potential return of a single address, you can selectively target it.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together. If you have any questions, you can comment or send a private message