It is already August, and autumn is coming soon. After experiencing the bull market in the first half of the year, we should stop and think carefully. When will the bull market come? Is there still a chance to make a layout?
Is the Mavericks over?
We analyze this problem from multiple maintenance perspectives.
1. Fundamentals
After more than a month of consolidation, BTC has reached 29,400. Looking back at July, many giants such as BlackRock and Charles Schwab applied for BTC spot ETF, XRP won the SEC lawsuit, and DEXM was officially launched. Under the premise of multiple heavyweight positives, BTC only broke the previous high point. When the market was full of enthusiasm, it did not meet the ideal expectations. Under the premise of no negative factors, it continued to fall. Although the large upward trend line has not been broken yet, from a pessimistic point of view, 31,800 may be the peak of this round of bull market.
2. Macro environment
The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates continuously to curb inflation and has maintained a high interest rate environment for nearly a year. The CPI data in July has shown a significant decline in inflation. High interest rates have indeed reduced inflation, but the ensuing economic recession is also an inevitable price. The non-agricultural data released in August also reflects this. The number of employed people is not high, the economy is sluggish, and liquidity is tight. In the long run, there will be no new liquidity in the cryptocurrency circle, and there is no motivation to bring about a new round of increases. The good news may be that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates in September and November, and the last rate hike may be this round in July.
3. Time cycle
The next halving of BTC will be around the end of April 2024. Looking back at the historical cycle, BTC has a big drop before each halving. In 2016, BTC fell from 780 to 470, and in 2020, BTC fell from 10,500 to 4,000. There are only 8 months left before the 24th halving. The remaining time is not sufficient, and coupled with the current sluggish market environment, the possibility of creating a new high again is getting lower and lower.
4.Disk
At present, BTC is at the lower edge of the middle track of the large-cycle rising channel. On a small level, BTC has entered the falling channel. 27500 will be an important watershed. This is the lower edge of the rising channel and also an important support of Fibonacci 0.618 (golden pocket). If it falls below this level, the bull market will be officially declared over and the crypto winter will come again. If it is supported and rebounds quickly, the bull market may continue, and this also requires multiple favorable fundamentals to support it.
To sum up, the probability of the end of the bull market is still relatively high. Make necessary preparations to prepare for the upcoming crypto winter. This may also be the last opportunity to make arrangements before the bull market. If you miss this opportunity again, you will miss the bull market.
When will the bull market come?
As mentioned above, BTC's halving cycle will be at the end of April 2024. Looking back at the historical cycle, the bull market starts three months after each halving. The halving occurred in July 2016, starting in October and ending in December 2017. The halving occurred in May 2020, starting in August and ending in November 2021. Therefore, this round of bull market will most likely start in the second quarter of 2024 and end in the third quarter of 2025. In the second quarter of 2024, many major events in the crypto market will also occur.
1. BTC halving
I won’t emphasize the importance of BTC halving. Every halving is the starting point for BTC’s surge.
2. The Fed cuts interest rates
The Fed will not start cutting interest rates before March next year, and it is very likely to start cutting interest rates in the second quarter. Cutting interest rates means increasing market liquidity, encouraging investment, stimulating consumption, and releasing money to boost market confidence. Coincidentally, the Fed also started cutting interest rates and releasing money at this time in 2020.
3. BTC spot EFT application
BlackRock applied for a BTC spot ETF. If the SEC approves it in April or May next year, if the application is approved, the traditional capital giants will officially enter the market, which will provide a huge amount of liquidity to the currency circle. The entry of trillions of capital will make BTC reach a new peak again. Think about the extent of the crazy bull market after Grayscale successfully applied for BTC futures ETF in 20 years. It is really worth looking forward to.
Opportunities to layout
There is really not much time left before the bull market starts, and there will not be many opportunities for us to make arrangements. This is why I speculate that the bull market has ended. If the bull market is still reluctant to end, the time for layout will only become less and less, and there will not be many foreseeable bad news. If BTC is supported at 27,500 in this round of correction, then don’t hesitate to get on the train at 27,500, at least you have to have a place to hide. If it falls below 27,500 and the bull market ends, then you can wait for new lows. Remember that from now on, every bad news is an opportunity to buy at the bottom. Bad news is not a bad thing, but a blessing from heaven to pick you up. When others are afraid, we have to start being greedy. In fact, the best way to deal with BTC is still to make regular investments, so that you will never miss out.
There will be the Cancun upgrade of Ethereum at the end of the year, which will also stimulate the market, drive a certain FOMO sentiment, and promote a round of rising prices in the L2 sector and ETH. Regarding the Cancun upgrade, you can deploy some high-quality currencies in the L2 sector, such as ARB, OP, IMX, and MATIC. There are still 4 months before the Cancun upgrade. This kind of good news starts to hype up hot spots in advance. Looking back at last year's World Cup and this year's Shanghai upgrade, they were all hyped in advance. The Cancun upgrade will be no exception. Therefore, the Cancun upgrade will usher in a good wave of gains in October and November. If you don't deploy now, you can only chase highs at that time.
Of course, in addition to the L2 sector, high-quality ecological altcoins in other sectors also need to be laid out. BTC and ETH are stable, but the upside space they can encounter in the bull market is also limited, while the potential space for high-quality altcoins is unlimited, and the possibility of tenfold or a hundredfold increase is very high #BTC #美联储是否加息？ #荣耀时刻
