8/9 BTC market analysis:
BTC hits 30,000 points again, will the market take a sharp turn? How long can the market enthusiasm brought by the Ark "female stock god" last?
Hi, ladies and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat's Coins. Today's update is late due to project negotiations.
As of the time of writing, BTC is priced at around 29,800. BTC started to rebound last night, and in the early morning it hit 30,000 again and fell back to around 30,200. The sudden change in the market has destroyed the original downward channel, and many people in the market have begun to choose to turn to bullish.
From a technical point of view, the downward channel of the Bollinger Band at the 1-day level is still continuing, and the Bollinger Band at the 1-hour level has closed again after expansion. The market will again move out of the trend in the next 1-2 days. The Bollinger Band at the 4-hour level has expanded again, and the shock range has increased.
From the perspective of trading volume, there are fewer obstacles in the range of 29,000 to 30,000. The market only encountered greater resistance around 29,800 and 30,000 during the upward process. At the same time, compared with the trading volume, the trading volume of 29,800 is basically the same as the trading volume around 30,200. It can be clearly seen that the same resistance level is still relatively strong above 30,000, but the buying power has obviously weakened after a sprint around 30,000. This shows that the area around 30,000 yesterday was the expected position of the main force, and the extra 200 points were the clearing of the contract and futures plates by the market control.
In fact, the volatile market in the past month has worn away our sensitivity to market crises. In an ultra-low liquidity market environment, it is very easy for market makers to control the market.
On the news side, yesterday’s rising sentiment was mainly due to the continuous release of positive news by the “female stock god” on Ark, from a gimmick copy in the morning that the female stock god was optimistic that BTC would reach 1.5 million US dollars in the future, to the article that the SEC might approve all ETF applications at the same time. This wave of sentiment has driven the enthusiasm of the entire market. Although the market liquidity is low, the main force has taken the opportunity to pull the market and brought opportunities and opportunities. The scattered retail investors followed suit and also intensified the rise of the market.
At the same time, the good news is that the traditional payment giant PayPal issued its own stable currency, which also represents the traditional financial industry's optimism about the crypto market. It also brought positive sentiment to retail investors.
In fact, we agree with the female stock god's point of view. The future value of BTC will definitely increase, but the female stock god herself is not optimistic about the SEC's decision on ETF this week. In fact, there is a core sentence in the original text that has been ignored by many people. The female stock god believes that the SEC will definitely approve all ETF applications at one time in the future, but the subtext is that this application may be rejected. At the same time, it also leaves a step for herself, which is the uniformity of the approval of ETF applications. The latest ETF application resolution time is January 13 next year. The unified approval that the female stock god believes in must take into account the uniformity of all resolution dates, so the probability of being temporarily rejected this time is very high, and the so-called unified approval may be in the next few months. This point is deliberately or unintentionally ignored by many media when spreading the news.
The issuance of PayPal’s stablecoin was initiated after the initial review of the stablecoin bill by the US Congress. In fact, PayPal’s stablecoin plan started in July last year, with the cooperation target being FTX, and was going to be issued on the SOL chain, but the FTX crash directly led to the project’s abortion. Now the project is restarted, which is considered by many to be an opportunity.
In fact, I have said before that the basis for launching this round of bull market is that the main force has enough chips and controls the stablecoin market. However, PayPal's stablecoin may not be smooth. Because PayPal's stablecoin is pegged to the US dollar, and is benchmarked against US short-term Treasury bonds and physical assets. In name, it is a stablecoin, but in nature it is more like a centralized digital currency issued by central banks of various countries. However, the two are different. PayPal is not backed by the government, which is a core shortcoming. As a veteran payment company, PayPal actually started targeting cryptocurrencies in 21 years, but with little success.
Looking at the US Stablecoin Act, the initial review of the Act coincides with the time when PayPal issued the stablecoin. Many people believe that PayPal's stablecoin is fully in line with the current US stablecoin issuance, but the core is not so. At present, the US Stablecoin Act is only the first review of the House of Representatives. If it is to be fully legislated and issued, it depends on the attitude of the Senate. The Senate has full veto power. If we say that PayPal issued the stablecoin in response to the stablecoin Act, it is better to say that PayPal's stablecoin issuance may promote the accelerated passage of the US Stablecoin Act.
In fact, from a comprehensive perspective, the above positive sentiment does not support the market to completely move out of the 1,000-point market. In addition, from what I see from the trading volume, it can be basically judged that this wave of pull-ups is the dealer taking the opportunity to pull up the market. The purpose of the pull-up may be related to the result of this ETF resolution. Once these institutions determine that the ETF cannot be passed in a short period of time, it is the best result to pull up the shipment and let retail investors take over. At the same time, the long positions in the futures contract market did not take action near 29,000 before, resulting in a loss of tens of millions of dollars. This time, the main force took action to push the overall market price to maintain its own futures contracts, which is also a core factor. The opening of the US stock market has been frustrated, and the CPI data is likely to aggravate the degree of frustration of the US stock market. This leads to the need for the futures market to pull up the market in advance to create a good buffer zone to prevent the forced liquidation of futures positions caused by the decline in the market. Therefore, pulling up the market is a good defensive measure.
Trend Direction:
It is true that the general trend is bearish, but the main force's pull-up is an important factor that we cannot ignore. Therefore, if we notice that the main force is going to pull up again, it is necessary for us to close the short position and turn around to see a rebound. Today's trend depends on the performance of US stocks in the evening.
Trading straregy:
Yesterday's short position has already hit the stop loss position, and the short position is also near the cost position. We need to observe the market stimulus before and after the evening US stock market. If the US stock market leads the market to fall in the evening, the main force is likely to pull up again in the early morning to do defensive trading. Short positions can be stopped in time according to the situation and then set a small loss position to take advantage of the rebound. But pay attention to the small position and conservative stop loss position.
Spot:
Be conservative for the time being and do not open a position. Wait and see to avoid being trapped.