Based on past price action, we can expect the Bitcoin price to see a slight increase in the month ahead of the next Bitcoin halving. However, there’s no clear trend for Bitcoin’s price action immediately in the aftermath of each Bitcoin halving.
Although previous performance doesn't guarantee future trends, market patterns often follow cyclical movements. Significant blockchain protocol events such as Bitcoin halvings, Litecoin halvings, and changes in cryptocurrency supply dynamics tend to have a considerable influence over the price of cryptocurrencies.
In this article, we’ll try to find out what to expect after the next Bitcoin halving (currently expected to happen in April 2024) and dive into Bitcoin halving 2024 price predictions.
Bitcoin halving price history
Before we dive into Bitcoin halving price predictions, let’s take a look at what the Bitcoin price action looked like before and after the three Bitcoin halvings that have happened so far.
Date BTC Price 1M Pre Halv. BTC Price at Halv. BTC Price 1M After Halv. BTC Price 3M After Halv. First Halving Nov 28, 2012 $10.70 $12.20 $13.42 (+9.8%) $30.90 (+153%) Second Halving Jul 9, 2016 $577.2 $633.4 $597.5 (-5.6%) $619.8 (-2.2%) Third Halving May 11, 2020 $7,060 $8,730 $9,850 (+12.8%) $11,860 (+35.8%)
Brackets show performance relative to the BTC price at the time of each respective halving.
There have only been three Bitcoin halvings so far, which means that it’s difficult to draw conclusions about how BTC tends to perform before and after halvings.
The only consistent trend we can see from previous halvings is that one month before each of the three Bitcoin halvings, the price of Bitcoin was lower than it was at the time of the halving.
It’s quite understandable that the BTC markets felt optimistic in the run-up to each halving so far, as Bitcoin halvings are arguably the most important fundamental event related to Bitcoin and are overwhelmingly interpreted as bullish events since they bring a reduction in the issuance of new BTC coins. So, acquiring some additional BTC as the halving approaches might not be a bad idea if you’re willing to speculate on this pattern continuing.
As for what happened to the Bitcoin price following each halving, we’ve seen two instances where the price increased and one instance where the price decreased. After the most recent halving, the BTC price was up by a very significant 35.8% three months after the halving.
From a more long-term perspective, Bitcoin has performed very well after each halving. In fact, Bitcoin has recorded a new all-time high price in each 4-year period between the halvings.
What is the Bitcoin price prediction after the halving in 2024?
At the moment, most sources are estimating that the Bitcoin halving will happen sometime in April 2024. Currently, the Bitcoin price prediction algorithm on CoinCodex is forecasting that Bitcoin will be trading at roughly $49,300 as of April 1, 2024.
For 1 month after the next halving, the forecast is currently predicting that the Bitcoin price will be $52,000, which would be 5.4% higher than the predicted price at the halving. However, the price is predicted to then quickly rally to a new all-time high at about $84,100.
For 3 months after the next halving, the Bitcoin price prediction is currently suggesting that BTC will be changing hands at approximately $45,700, which would be -7.3% lower than the predicted price at the halving.
Bitcoin price prediction 2024 - 2025
According to the price prediction on CoinCodex, BTC is forecasted to gradually increase in value between now and the next halving in April 2024. The Bitcoin price is forecasted to increase significantly in the month leading up to the next halving, and even match the previous all-time high before dropping down to roughly $49,300 at the time of the next halving.
Notably, the algorithm is currently forecasting that BTC will display a huge price rally in late 2023, which would extend into early 2024. At its peak, this rally is forecasted to reach as high as $167,000.
Of course, you should keep in mind that the Bitcoin markets tend to be very unpredictable and long-term Bitcoin price forecasts have a low probability of being accurate.
The bottom line - It’s difficult to estimate Bitcoin’s short-term performance after the next halving, but the long-term prospects are promising
Hopefully, our Bitcoin halving price prediction provided a helpful perspective of what you can expect following the next Bitcoin halving in 2024. In terms of short-term price action, we might see a modest rally in the BTC market in the month preceding the halving. It’s difficult to know what to expect immediately after the next halving, as there hasn’t really been a clear trend historically.
From a more long-term perspective, if the current trend continues, we will see a new Bitcoin all-time high in the 4-year period between the 2024 Bitcoin halving and the Bitcoin halving that will happen in 2028. Of course, there’s no such thing as a guarantee when it comes to the cryptocurrency market, and we’ve only had three Bitcoin halvings so far, which is a very small sample size.
If you're still wondering if it's worth buying Bitcoin or not, make sure to check out our in-depth article exploring whether Bitcoin is a good investment in 2023 or not.
