simply put
Less than 48 hours after Litecoin’s halving was completed on August 2, the LTC price has dropped 12%, losing the crucial $85 support level in the process.
On-chain data shows that Litecoin whale investors and long-term holders are triggering a network-wide selling frenzy.
Based on historical price action following LTC’s halving events in 2015 and 2019, the current support level of $80 could be at risk.
Less than 48 hours after the Litecoin halving was completed on August 2, the LTC price fell 12% and lost the key $85 support level. Will the bearish momentum worsen as whale investors and long-term holders begin to sell?
On August 2, Litecoin completed its third halving event, which halved the block reward issued to miners from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC. As observed in the halving events in 2015 and 2019, the LTC price once again saw a double-digit drop.
After hitting $94 on August 1, LTC price has fallen to $83 at press time. This represents a 12% plunge after the halving. On-chain data analysis suggests that bears may have more tricks up their sleeves.
Whale investors have begun selling their holdings
On-chain data suggests that whale investors’ current selling in the market is driving the Litecoin post-halving sell-off. According to data from Santiment, whales holding cumulative balances of 1,000 to 100,000 LTC began selling days before the Litecoin halving event.
As shown in the figure below, whales held a total of 9.77 million LTC on July 29. As of August 4, their holdings have now decreased by 60,000 LTC.
At the current market price of $83, the 60,000 tokens recently unloaded by the whale are worth nearly $5 million. Such a large outflow in just six trading days is a major bearish signal for other strategic investors.
If retail investors join the halving rally, Litecoin price could drop below $80 in the coming days.
Long-term holders are getting weaker
Additionally, another key driver behind the ongoing halving is selling pressure from long-term holders. On-chain data shows that Litecoin has been under intense bearish pressure from long-term investors this week.
According to Santiment’s Age Consumed data, the sell-off intensified the day after the halving on August 2.
Notably, on August 3, the LTC Age Consumed score reached 37.03 million, an increase of 800% from the 3.96 million recorded on August 1.
Age Consumed measures the trading activity of long-term investors by tracking how many long-held tokens are currently in circulation. It is calculated by multiplying the number of tokens that have recently traded by the number of days since their last move.
Litecoin burn deadline surged 800% in three days, meaning many long-term holders had already started selling. Unsurprisingly, LTC prices fell sharply during this period.
LTC Price Prediction: $80 support at risk
With the bearish momentum of the post-halving sell-off, Litecoin bears look set to push for a target of $70. For this to happen, the bears must break above the initial support area of $80.
However, as shown below, 1.53 million addresses purchased 9.31 million LTC at an average price of $80.30, which could prevent a decline.
If this support fails to spark a sharp rebound, Litecoin price could drop to the next critical support area of $72.
Nonetheless, if LTC regains positive momentum, bulls may force an early rally to $90. Nevertheless, 513,570 holders who purchased 1.33 million LTC at an average price of $87.77 may hinder the progress.
Nonetheless, if the bulls can flip the resistance to sell, LTC might quickly reclaim the $90 area.
