In the US election at the end of 2024, Bitcoin will skyrocket

巨鲸领投 · 2023-08-05T01:11:14.000Z

What the 2024 U.S. presidential election has to do with it. First, Bitcoin is currently at its highest price of the U.S. presidential election cycle; Bitcoin is currently trading above $29,000, compared to the previous election cycle high of around $20,000 in Q4 2020. Next, and arguably just as important, people who are particularly distrustful of institutions while also worried about their financial future may be the most critical group of voters before 2024. Young people are expected to make up the largest share of voters in history in the 2024 presidential election, with early reports indicating that Millennials and Gen Z will make up 44% of the U.S. electorate by 2024. Cathie Wood and Balaji Srinivasan call 2024 the “Bitcoin election.” Most recently, in July 2023, Larry Fink claimed that “Bitcoin will surpass all international currencies due to widespread global demand.” If this happens, Bitcoin will be positioned not only for governments A side note from officials and policymakers, and will also be viewed as a national security issue for the United States. The facts and continued maturation of the Bitcoin ecosystem seem to indicate that Bitcoin is and will continue to be more relevant to the U.S. election than ever before. In fact, early political candidates have begun to share their stance on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly. We've recorded their locations in the table below.

 2024 年美国总统选举有何关联。首先，比特币目前处于美国总统选举周期中的最高价格；比特币目前的交易价格高于 2.9 万美元，而 2020 年第四季度的上一个选举周期高点约为 2 万美元。接下来，可以说同样重要的是，对机构特别不信任，同时又担心自己的财务未来的人群可能是 2024 年之前最关键的选民群体。在 2024 年总统选举中，预计年轻人将成为选民成为历史上最大比例的选民，早期报告指出，到 2024 年，千禧一代和 Z 世代将占美国选民的 44%。 Cathie Wood 和 Balaji Srinivasan 将2024 年称为“比特币选举”。最近，即 2023 年 7 月，拉里·芬克 (Larry Fink)声称“由于全球范围内广泛的需求，比特币将超越所有国际货币。” 如果发生这种情况，比特币将不仅被定位为政府官员和政策制定者的旁注，而且还将被视为美国的国家安全问题。比特币生态系统的事实和不断成熟似乎表明，比特币现在并将继续比以往任何时候都与美国大选更加相关。事实上，早期的政治候选人已经开始更广泛地分享比特币和加密货币的立场。我们在下表中记录了他们的位置。
总统候选人对比特币和加密货币的看法很重要，不仅因为总统领导国家，还因为总统负责任命 50 多个独立联邦委员会的负责人，这些委员会可以对加密货币的各个方面产生影响，其中包括 SEC 、商品期货交易委员会、美联储和财政部。
Positions and/or opinions of 2024 U.S. presidential political candidates on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related topics. Candidate turnout exceeds 5% as of July 2023 Although this is a small snapshot early in the election cycle, the chart above illustrates the differing views on crypto-related topics within and between parties. For example, while former President Trump has stated that he believes “Bitcoin is a scam,” many Republican candidates strongly disagree with this view. Desantis, for example, has vowed to protect Bitcoin from regulation. Ramaswamy has publicly stated that he supports Bitcoin because he believes that Bitcoin is a "decentralized alternative" to the US dollar. He believes that Bitcoin can strengthen the financial infrastructure of the United States by stopping "the existing system in its tracks." . Republican Francis Suarez, nicknamed the “Bitcoin Mayor,” entered the race in June 2023 after gaining notoriety as a Bitcoin mayor. Vows to make Miami a Bitcoin hub and accept Bitcoin as salary. On the Democratic side, RFK Jr. also believes that Bitcoin is a "major engine of innovation" and he is now the first major presidential candidate in history to accept Bitcoin campaign donations; he also recently claimed that he would eliminate capital gains taxes on Bitcoin transactions (20).​
Likewise, the candidates’ positions on Bitcoin mining and CBDC are not party-specific, but have nuances on both sides. For example, the Biden administration has proposed a 30% tax on the cost of electricity used to mine Bitcoin, while fellow Democrat RFK Jr. has staunchly opposed (21) any Bitcoin mining tax. On the Republican side, a central tenet of Ramaswamy’s proposal is the freedom to mine Bitcoin in the United States. Likewise, Desantis opposes the proposed 30% tax. Additionally, incumbents like Biden and Trump favor exploring a CBDC, while Democrat RFK Jr. and Republicans DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Suarez strongly oppose the measure.
The increasingly pro-crypto stance of presidential candidates across political parties may reflect the view that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have become nonpartisan issues on which members of both parties can agree.
in conclusion
Bitcoin is decentralized. There is no Fed to change the money supply. No CEO makes a decision that significantly changes the potential outcome. There are no gatekeepers; no secrets. The Bitcoin ecosystem is open and transparent, and anyone with access to the Internet can view, participate in, or invest in the Bitcoin protocol. Bitcoin's technology and overall ethos generally align with the values ​​of young people who are increasingly individualistic, skeptical and concerned about money. Regardless of political affiliation, Bitcoin can serve American values.
As Bitcoin’s importance grows over time, as well as the importance of younger voters, watching how presidential candidates’ stances on crypto evolve and how and whether they play a role in the 2024 U.S. presidential election will be It'll be fun. Ultimately, this is something we at Grayscale are watching closely, as legislation, policy, and regulation will have a profound impact on cryptocurrency as an asset class today and the future of the U.S. in the global economy and finance.