From the perspective of Bitcoin, there is no advantage between long and short positions. The support strength below Ethereum is more obvious, and it will close on the monthly line tomorrow. At present, the monthly trend of July is not beautiful, showing a slight sign of trend correction. Market opportunities will tend to be more inclined to the second- and third-tier mainstreams and some local dogs. Looking for the second pullback opportunity of the leader may be a better choice.
Some judgments on market cycles
The market is like the Internet is down. This kind of market seems to have been experienced by everyone. All risk markets are showing signs of rising, but the cryptocurrency market is not enthusiastic! It is very similar to the situation in 2020.
I remember that at that time, there was always no chance to open a position with contracts. Imagine how small the volatility was. In fact, the current market is only temporarily subsiding and there will be some areas that can be hyped up later. The market in August will not be bad and September should be a turning point!
Why do we say that September may be a turning point? Because the dot plot in September can lift all the fog of the current macro-economy. If it is consistent with the results announced in June, then there will be another interest rate hike. If there is a decline, this cycle may end ahead of schedule. This is why so many analysts in the current market speculate that this is the last time!
If you ask me when the market frenzy will occur, I personally feel that it will be 24 years. If nothing unexpected happens, 2024 will be the transition year from contraction to expansion of macro liquidity, and a new round of hot money will pour in to drive the market surge!
It is still the same that first wealth creation comes from trading and mining, and then some new narrative hype will drive a wave of wealth creation. But there are not many opportunities for dividends. Now the cryptocurrency circle has reached 70% of the dividend outbreak period. Perhaps after one or two cycles, there will be no more stories of retail investors getting rich overnight in this market.
Recommended currencies for the Cancun upgrade sector in the 2024-25 bull market:
1. L2 leader: ARB and OP are the two L2s with the largest TVL and users. They have sufficient first-mover advantage and legitimacy, and have a certain ecological moat. They are the core benchmarks for the Cancun upgrade.
2. Leading applications: GMX, RDNT, MAGIC, SNX GMX, RDNT, Magic are Arb series, Snx is OP series, and they have obtained corresponding L2 support respectively. The explosion of L2 has also driven the explosion of its ecology.
3. L2 alternative: Polygon Polygon has several ZK Layer2 solutions, including Polygon ZKEVM. Polygon indirectly shifted from the public chain market to embrace ETH L2, with internal technical advantages and market driving force. Seeing the potential of ZK and investing $1 billion to build ZK solutions, 4 solutions have been launched so far. I dare not imagine that when the ZK hotspot brought about by the Cancun upgrade appears, Polygon will follow the trend.
4. ZKrollup application projects: LRC and IMX are currently universal zkRollup and have not yet issued coins. LRC and IMX are the sectors of ZK L2 that are more easily hyped.
Looking for opportunities among several leading companies
1: CFX, a domestic public chain concept, benefited from the efforts of the Hong Kong sector in the first half of this year and achieved a 20-fold increase. It is also one of the leaders this year. It has been corrected for 20 weeks so far and is approaching the time period of change. It is supported by the 55-week moving average below. Next week will usher in a critical time for change. If you find the right position at the critical time, you will probably have a 30% chance to make money.
2: BCH, this is the old second-tier mainstream, POW sector, in the June market can be regarded as a star currency, three times in three weeks, now it has been pulled back from the highest point for four weeks, next week will be the fifth week, it will also usher in a time window for a change in the market, on Tuesday this week it also prompted the support of 235, it is still valid now, there is a chance to pull back to around 280.
3: DOGE: Although this has performed mediocre this year, I gave a reminder on Monday this week, and I will give another reminder today. The logic is that it benefits from the big boss behind it, who changed Twitter's bluebird to X. At the same time, various signs indicate that Musk may accept DOGE payments again. It is highly likely that Musk's "X ecosystem" will continue to empower DOGE. Therefore, this is worth looking forward to, after all, it is also an old currency active in the POW sector.
Common opportunities for outperformance:
1. The bear market of major currencies hits bottom and the black swan suddenly drops to bottom
If the price of Bitcoin drops to around 15,000, it will be a repeat of 312.
2. Excellent and profitable star projects have bad news but the fundamentals remain unchanged
Pay attention to those projects that suddenly fall sharply due to negative news. If the fundamentals have not changed, they may rise quietly later.
3. Lay out new narrative tracks one by one to roll over the trend
For example, in the market at the beginning of the year, the LSD ssv ldo track was eaten up by rolling positions, and the new public chain apt arb was eaten up, etc.
Gradually, through successful transactions, the principal will accumulate compound interest.
4. Get on board quickly when new opportunities arise
BRC20 track, this kind of new thing that suddenly appeared, stay sensitive, in the early stage, buy enough if you see it! Then wait for consensus to form!
5. Arbitrage opportunities that require execution and accounts
For example, with the sui new issue mentioned above, one account can earn nearly 100,000 yuan, so it would be great if you have multiple accounts.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
