Content source: Weibo (Kuang Ren Daobi Dao)
Madman said
Thank you all for your warm comments yesterday. It turns out there are so many people who support us silently. You have been too silent, so I thought that only keyboard warriors were left. Now the familiar figures are still there. It seems that we are destined to overcome difficulties together and usher in the next peak moment. After all, the most difficult time has passed, and it is not easy to survive. Let us wait together for the industry to recover!
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting showed that the Fed's final interest rate target has become more important than the rate hike speed. Because from December, the Fed will most likely begin to slow down the rate hike, with a probability of 50 basis points reaching 75.8% and a probability of 75 basis points only 24.2%. The interest rate benchmark will therefore reach 4.5% by the end of this year, leaving only 50 basis points of room for the 5% interest rate ceiling expected by most institutions. It is estimated that the rate will be raised by 25 basis points twice in the first half of next year. With the slowdown in rate hikes, the market will gradually recover, the US dollar index will begin to fall, and US stocks will resume their upward trend. It is difficult for Bitcoin to get out of the continued weak market at this position. The biggest concern of the current market is still the aftershock of FTX. Once this obstacle is cleared over time, it will be inevitable to resume the upward trend.
Russian lawmakers are drafting amendments to launch a national cryptocurrency exchange. Russia is likely to be at the forefront in this field. This is the product of the joint sanctions of the Western world. As Harvard's latest report said, the US sanctions have increased the long-term fundamental value of Bitcoin. The big countries will open the crypto market in the form of national exchanges, which will bring new liquidity and imagination to the market. Once this is implemented in Russia, it is likely to bring a wave of sustained growth to the market.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's negative premium narrowed to 39.2%, most likely due to Cathie Wood's support. Cathie Wood said she has been buying GBTC at the bottom recently and has increased her holdings three times this month. Because the huge discount rate will gradually narrow over time, GBTC will have a lot of upside potential, and she feels comfortable with GBTC's custody at Coinbase. Cathie Wood's ARK investment performance has been dismal over the past year, which is related to the return of technology valuations under tightening. Everyone is buying at the bottom and waiting for recovery, and technology industries (including encryption) have returned to the trough area.
In the past two weeks, the dominance of exchange withdrawals reached 47.4%, a record high for the year. Currently, 172,700 Bitcoins are flowing out of exchanges per month, also reaching this year's peak. The withdrawal wave has caused expectations of selling pressure to drop sharply, and the risk-return ratio of investment is already very appropriate.
Panic 22, extreme panic.
Bitcoin: It is still in a rebound trend, but due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, the market will not open in the evening. It will open for half a day the next evening, and then connect to the weekend, which will reduce the activity of the crypto market. Therefore, the overall market is expected to be dominated by shock repair, and 16,000-17,000 still needs to be sorted out.
Ethereum: The time for the Shanghai upgrade is still undetermined, and the Foundation website has changed the 6-12 month timetable to no longer have a recommended timetable. The Foundation estimates that considering the current market situation, it intends to postpone the Shanghai upgrade, because the upgrade will allow the withdrawal of staked ETH, which will have an impact on the already fragile market. ETH has rebounded due to this impact and is expected to continue to strongly drive the rebound.
ADA: Both ADA’s decentralized stablecoin system and two well-known ZK-Rollup expansion projects have announced the suspension of development, casting certain doubts on the ADA ecosystem. The future of this coin is even more uncertain. It is recommended to switch to other more promising public chains at the bottom. The market is very depressed when it is down, but once it recovers in the future, the growth rate of valuable public chains will be completely different.
APE: The pledge system will be launched on December 5th. It’s okay to buy some when the price drops to this level. Although the NFT market continues to be sluggish, it will eventually pick up. Now most tokens are very cheap.
All public chains have started to become active, especially FTM, OP and Arbitrum (no token issued), with daily activity higher than the previous weekly activity, indicating that funds have begun to deploy a large amount of funds in the ecosystem. The overall market risk is far less than the opportunity to gain returns, so it is okay to be more aggressive at this time.