1. Is there an eternal bear market for Bitcoin?
Some people criticized the bull-bear indicator before, arguing that since the whole world knows about the bull-bear indicator and everyone is entering the market in a bear market, who will take over? Therefore, the bull market will definitely never come. Will this really happen? According to this theory, since the currency market may enter an eternal bear market, the stock market, oil market, gold market and real estate market may also enter an eternal bear market. From then on, there will be no more bull markets in all investment fields. Do you think this is possible?
History tells us that these investment fields all have bull-bear cycles. Therefore, the assumption of an eternal bear market is not valid. Since human beings have economic activities, any economic environment has bull-bear cycles. A long bear market will eventually lead to a bull market, and a long bull market will eventually lead to a bear market. It is not that the time has not come yet, but that the time has not come yet.
2. Buy and don’t sell in a bear market, and you will only make money and not lose money in a bull market.
From the bear market to the bull market, the price of Bitcoin will definitely rise. The reason why the bull market is called a bull market is because the price is higher than that in the bear market. As long as you only buy and do not sell in the bear market, and keep hoarding coins until the bull market, and sell them in the bull market, you will definitely make money without losing money. In fact, basically no one enters the market in the bear market, but a large number of people will enter the market only in the bull market.
If there is one person entering the market in a bear market, then there may be ten people entering the market in a bull market, or even dozens of people entering the market. Are you still worried that the whole world is entering the market in a bear market and no one is willing to take over? It is not the case that the whole world is entering the market in a bear market. Only a very small number of people can enter the market in a bear market.
The most important thing today is the interest rate hike meeting in the early morning. It seems that 25 basis points is a done deal. The most important thing is whether this is the last rate hike. Judging from Powell’s previous speeches, he will definitely not reveal any information. I hope he can get out of the trend.
Although the production cut time is April next year, it is coming soon, but looking at the bull market of production cuts in 2016 and 2020, there is basically a squat before each opening.
After all, Bitcoin can now maintain around $30,000, which is supported by the news of ETF. If there is no subsequent approval or continuous delays, short funds may immediately counterattack!
The market is still in a bear market, especially with the tightening of funds under the interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction, it is inevitable to go down, and now we just need a reason to dump the market, otherwise this anxious situation cannot be broken
But there are still some good short-term opportunities, such as:
1. WLD is still a hotly discussed currency in the market. Regardless of whether its vision can be realized, it is a long-term problem. Our opportunities come more from the focus of attention in the first few days after listing. Are there any short-term opportunities? The conclusion is yes, so we can buy at a low level at the second level.
2. Pogai has been trending very well recently. According to Dao friends’ tips, this may be related to Binance’s announcement that it plans to launch a relatively active Meme currency in the near future. This may be the behavior of retail investors, but it is more likely to be the behavior of the main force.
3. Doge Musk said that the payment function may be integrated into Twitter, so Doge is relatively strong recently, but it should not be realized so quickly, it can only be short-term speculation
Will it be a new coin or DOGE? I think Twitter is unlikely to issue a new coin, especially not in the name of Twitter.
DOGE, wait for the wind to come
In general, 31.4K has always made it clear that if this position cannot be pushed up, we must open a short position, but it does not prevent us from doing some hot currencies in the short term. The idea is to do it in a short, flat and fast way.
The next trend of ARB should be a small upward trend with fluctuations. After accumulating strength, it will usher in a change when the interest rate is raised, which is in the early hours of Thursday. As for the specific direction, I think the probability of upward movement is greater than downward movement. It depends on whether the market will continue to fall!
If 28800 is the bottom of Bitcoin, then the current ARB1.15 is the bottom. If it continues to drop to the strong support near 28000, then ARB may continue to fall back to the previous strong support range of 1.05~1.1. Therefore, what we are doing now is not to guess the bottom or the top. If it falls, we will slowly make up for it, and if it rises, we will gradually sell it. Once the direction is truly confirmed, we will make large positions!
Pay attention to the trend of the ENS project. It has now entered its sixth consecutive monthly decline. If it continues to decline this month, you can ambush it next month!
Summarize:
Ever since BTC fell below 29.5K, I have been bearish on the long-term trend. I also reminded you of this when it fell sharply below the support level that day. I will continue to be bullish when the price comes back (above 29.5K).
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.